Warriors

[raems]

Game 1 +105
-1.5 games -105
Sweep +900

I personally feel pretty confident in two things - the warriors will win game 1 and won’t lose a home game. Houston’s chance to avoid a sweep / get this back to a home Game 5 will be Game 2, in which all the pressure in the world will be on them if they’re down 0-1.

Could see this snowballing quickly for the Rockets ESPECIALLY if Kerr only takes until Game 2 to realize that the Megadeath lineup needs 30 mins a night in this series.

Rockets will be forced into one shitty option, which will force them to counter into another shitty option in this series. I expect Kerr to double Harden/CP hard, forcing Capela to make decisions on the short roll in 4 on 3’s. I’m skeptical Capela can make the Warriors pay. Houston’s logical counter is to not set screens and let Harden/CP create off the dribble/iso. This leads to 4 guys being close to the basket for Houston in every possession, leading to easy runouts off every Houston miss. I like this Houston team a lot, but fear this isn’t the year for them to give the Dubs a real jolt.

Winners focus on winning, losers focus on winners — Rockets will wind up spending this summer and all next year focused on the Warriors yet again.

 

[B.A.R.]

I totally get the approach here.

I do think Rockets get a game or two but a sweep is not out of the cards.

I would assume the NBA steps in with a Brothers/Foster combo when needed to extend this a bit. Those semifinals hurt the league quite a bit one would think.

 

[KJ]

That -1.5 games is very tempting, hadn't even looked at those yet. Think you're on to something

 

[B.A.R.]

That -1.5 games is very tempting, hadn't even looked at those yet. Think you're on to something

Yup, this isn't going 7. Nope.

 

[raems]

First half Over 115

I expect both teams to really emphasize running off misses. Also curious to see if Harden hunts getting Steph into foul trouble, as Steph often reaches too much when he gets aggressive on D. If Steph gets in foul trouble Kerr will start hiding him on D which just opens the game up even more. Should be the type of half where the second quarter buzzer sounds and everybody watching just exhales and says holy shit.

 

[B.A.R.]

First half Over 115

I expect both teams to really emphasize running off misses. Also curious to see if Harden hunts getting Steph into foul trouble, as Steph often reaches too much when he gets aggressive on D. If Steph gets in foul trouble Kerr will start hiding him on D which just opens the game up even more. Should be the type of half where the second quarter buzzer sounds and everybody watching just exhales and says holy shit.

Very interested to see what happens. Good luck on the play. I've been debating the 'pace' for a few days now.

 

[bee172]

GM1 I expect guns blazing from the cradle to the grave. Reasoning behind it is my firm belief that both squads will want to deliver the message that they’re the real team vying for the chip. Flex game going to be strong on both sides so I asssume the Dubs to flex that little bit more so I took Over 1H and Dubs TT Over 1H & Over whole game.

 

[raems]

Game 2 +105 ML

Some people foolish enough to not acknowledge what they’re seeing happen on the court.

 

[B.A.R.]

Everything looks great so far....

 

[raems]

Call me undisciplined, but going larger than usual on the Dubs tonight for whatever it’s worth.

Seems evident from journalists on the scene that the Rockets have GSW’s full attention and that they’ve literally been waiting 6 months to shut them up. Sometimes the books just lose, giving some money away on WCF Games 1 and 2 is not the end of the world for them. Houston’s only angle is fading the public and honestly I don’t think bettors with wallets massive enough to move markets are putting any dollars on Houston tonight.

 

[skanless13]

Call me undisciplined, but going larger than usual on the Dubs tonight for whatever it’s worth.

Seems evident from journalists on the scene that the Rockets have GSW’s full attention and that they’ve literally been waiting 6 months to shut them up. Sometimes the books just lose, giving some money away on WCF Games 1 and 2 is not the end of the world for them. Houston’s only angle is fading the public and honestly I don’t think bettors with wallets massive enough to move markets are putting any dollars on Houston tonight.

Man, I agree that GSW look far superior on the floor, at least in gm 1, but the line for this game seems SUPER fishy to me. I know that capping based on the lines can be a lame approach, but for too often i've seen the "if it looks too good to be true, it probably is" idea come true. Good luck to you though.. i'd just be somewhat cautious.

 

[raems]

Game 4 O114 1H

Iggy out means less defense for the Dubs. Expect Houston to push pace and Dubs good for 55+ in any half at home.

 

[number2]

Game 4 O114 1H

Iggy out means less defense for the Dubs. Expect Houston to push pace and Dubs good for 55+ in any half at home.

On it too....been chasing 1h overs 3 games straight. Games 1 and 2 missed by few points. Game 3 Houston didn’t show up. Expect both offense to go off today.