Warriors vs. Lakers: NBA Picks and Predictions
Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Sunday, February 28, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, California
Los Angeles’ Issues On Offense
If you want to bet on the favored team, then you should have confidence in that team’s offense: it should be able to score easily enough that it can cover the spread.
A problem with the Lakers, though, is that they are consistently not scoring enough points to win games straight-up, let alone scoring enough to cover the spread.
Since star big man Anthony Davis went down, the Lakers failed to reach 100 points in half of their six games despite usually facing lower-ranked defenses.
They scored 112 points against Minnesota, which ranks 28th in allowing 116.4 points per game, 98 points against Brooklyn, which ranks 27th in allowing 116.3 points per game, 115 regulation-time points against Washington, which ranks 29th in allowing 119.3 points per game, and 102 points against Portland, which ranks 25th in allowing 115.2 points per game.
Opposing defenses are regularly over-performing against the Lakers and often producing top-level results in terms of limiting the opponent's point total.
These scoring struggles make sense since AD is the team’s second-leading scorer with 22.5 points per game. He’s one of two Lakers who averages over 14.5 points per game.
He was a high-minute deliverer who could post up but also shoot or otherwise display nice touch near the basket.
Golden State Comparison
The Warrior defense ranks more highly in terms of opposing points per game than Minnesota, Brooklyn, Washington, and Portland, but not nearly as highly as Miami and Utah defenses which did an even solider job in limiting the Laker scoring output.
One reason why I like the Warriors tonight is that they can mimic the Nets in one key offensive aspect — which they depended on to beat the Lakers -- and the Wizards in another key defensive aspect — which they depended on to beat the Lakers.
Brooklyn beat L.A. by solidly outperforming the Lakers from behind the arc. Whereas the Nets shot 46.2 percent from three, the Lakers shot 8-for-30 from three.
Golden State ranks 14 places higher than the Lakers in three-point percentage. So expect the Warriors to be more effective than L.A.when shooting from distance.
Washington depended on its strengthened interior defense featuring Robin Lopez in order to limit the Laker efficiency inside the arc.
The Warrior defensive strength is, like Washington's, guarding inside. So the Warriors will force L.A. to replicate its difficulty scoring outside the arc inside the arc.
Laker Offense vs. Warrior Defense
It is true that the Lakers are attempting more threes per game since AD is not in the lineup. Without his threat in front of the basket, the Lakers have to seek other alternatives.
But the Lakers are an awful shooting team. They rank 26th in three-point percentage on the season. They are lately even less efficient in this respect since opposing defenses have less to worry about defending inside.
While they’re attempting — and therefore usually bricking — more threes per game, the Lakers still rely most on scoring within five feet of the basket, even though they rank 11th in field goal percentage within five feet of the basket since AD is injured.
Defensively, Golden State ranks as poorly as it does largely because of its flawed perimeter defense. The Warriors allow a lot of open threes. But since the Lakers shoot so poorly, Golden State’s defensive weakness is as good as non-existent tonight.
With an improving James Wiseman, the Warriors rank seventh-best in opposing field goal percentage within five feet of the basket. An athletic wing-stopper in Andrew Wiggins complements Wiseman’s shot-blocking ability.
The Warriors are at their best defending L.A.’s greatest area of dependency on offense— near the basket — where the Lakers are much weaker without AD.
Golden State Offense vs. Los Angeles Defense
Offensively, Golden State primarily wants to shoot the ball, especially with superstar sharpshooter Steph Curry.
But the Lakers have regressed in terms of trying to limit opposing three-pointers made and opposing three-point percentage.
Looking at L.A.’s recent perimeter defense stats, it would rank among the NBA’s worst teams in stopping the opposing offense from behind the arc.
The Lakers are so much worse because they lack AD’s rim-protection. He had allowed Laker defenders to guard the perimeter more aggressively. But now the Laker defense has more to worry about inside and therefore outside the arc as well.
Ranking seventh in three-pointers made per game and 11th in three-point percentage — the latter number being deflated by Curry’s absence in other games like recently against Charlotte— the Warriors will pressure L.A.’s weakened defense too significantly from behind the arc.
The Verdict
The Lakers’ difficulties especially in making up for AD’s absence explain their current 1-4 ATS run.
Tonight, L.A. can’t exploit the Warriors’ weakness on defense.
In weakened form, the Lakers will struggle all the more heavily to contend with Golden State’s defensive strength, its rim protection.
On offense, the Warriors can exploit L.A.’s vulnerable perimeter defense. Failing to contain Curry and company, the Lakers lack the weaponry or the defensive strength and prowess to keep pace.
Los Angeles thus presents the perfect opponent for Golden State to prolong its 3-0 ATS run.
Best Bet: Warriors +4 at -108 with Heritage
Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Sunday, February 28, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, California
Los Angeles’ Issues On Offense
If you want to bet on the favored team, then you should have confidence in that team’s offense: it should be able to score easily enough that it can cover the spread.
A problem with the Lakers, though, is that they are consistently not scoring enough points to win games straight-up, let alone scoring enough to cover the spread.
Since star big man Anthony Davis went down, the Lakers failed to reach 100 points in half of their six games despite usually facing lower-ranked defenses.
They scored 112 points against Minnesota, which ranks 28th in allowing 116.4 points per game, 98 points against Brooklyn, which ranks 27th in allowing 116.3 points per game, 115 regulation-time points against Washington, which ranks 29th in allowing 119.3 points per game, and 102 points against Portland, which ranks 25th in allowing 115.2 points per game.
Opposing defenses are regularly over-performing against the Lakers and often producing top-level results in terms of limiting the opponent's point total.
These scoring struggles make sense since AD is the team’s second-leading scorer with 22.5 points per game. He’s one of two Lakers who averages over 14.5 points per game.
He was a high-minute deliverer who could post up but also shoot or otherwise display nice touch near the basket.
Golden State Comparison
The Warrior defense ranks more highly in terms of opposing points per game than Minnesota, Brooklyn, Washington, and Portland, but not nearly as highly as Miami and Utah defenses which did an even solider job in limiting the Laker scoring output.
One reason why I like the Warriors tonight is that they can mimic the Nets in one key offensive aspect — which they depended on to beat the Lakers -- and the Wizards in another key defensive aspect — which they depended on to beat the Lakers.
Brooklyn beat L.A. by solidly outperforming the Lakers from behind the arc. Whereas the Nets shot 46.2 percent from three, the Lakers shot 8-for-30 from three.
Golden State ranks 14 places higher than the Lakers in three-point percentage. So expect the Warriors to be more effective than L.A.when shooting from distance.
Washington depended on its strengthened interior defense featuring Robin Lopez in order to limit the Laker efficiency inside the arc.
The Warrior defensive strength is, like Washington's, guarding inside. So the Warriors will force L.A. to replicate its difficulty scoring outside the arc inside the arc.
Laker Offense vs. Warrior Defense
It is true that the Lakers are attempting more threes per game since AD is not in the lineup. Without his threat in front of the basket, the Lakers have to seek other alternatives.
But the Lakers are an awful shooting team. They rank 26th in three-point percentage on the season. They are lately even less efficient in this respect since opposing defenses have less to worry about defending inside.
While they’re attempting — and therefore usually bricking — more threes per game, the Lakers still rely most on scoring within five feet of the basket, even though they rank 11th in field goal percentage within five feet of the basket since AD is injured.
Defensively, Golden State ranks as poorly as it does largely because of its flawed perimeter defense. The Warriors allow a lot of open threes. But since the Lakers shoot so poorly, Golden State’s defensive weakness is as good as non-existent tonight.
With an improving James Wiseman, the Warriors rank seventh-best in opposing field goal percentage within five feet of the basket. An athletic wing-stopper in Andrew Wiggins complements Wiseman’s shot-blocking ability.
The Warriors are at their best defending L.A.’s greatest area of dependency on offense— near the basket — where the Lakers are much weaker without AD.
Golden State Offense vs. Los Angeles Defense
Offensively, Golden State primarily wants to shoot the ball, especially with superstar sharpshooter Steph Curry.
But the Lakers have regressed in terms of trying to limit opposing three-pointers made and opposing three-point percentage.
Looking at L.A.’s recent perimeter defense stats, it would rank among the NBA’s worst teams in stopping the opposing offense from behind the arc.
The Lakers are so much worse because they lack AD’s rim-protection. He had allowed Laker defenders to guard the perimeter more aggressively. But now the Laker defense has more to worry about inside and therefore outside the arc as well.
Ranking seventh in three-pointers made per game and 11th in three-point percentage — the latter number being deflated by Curry’s absence in other games like recently against Charlotte— the Warriors will pressure L.A.’s weakened defense too significantly from behind the arc.
The Verdict
The Lakers’ difficulties especially in making up for AD’s absence explain their current 1-4 ATS run.
Tonight, L.A. can’t exploit the Warriors’ weakness on defense.
In weakened form, the Lakers will struggle all the more heavily to contend with Golden State’s defensive strength, its rim protection.
On offense, the Warriors can exploit L.A.’s vulnerable perimeter defense. Failing to contain Curry and company, the Lakers lack the weaponry or the defensive strength and prowess to keep pace.
Los Angeles thus presents the perfect opponent for Golden State to prolong its 3-0 ATS run.
Best Bet: Warriors +4 at -108 with Heritage
