NBA Picks: Our Best Bets for October 26
Golden State Warriors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Tuesday, October 26, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City
Overrated
It may seem strange to say, but NBA Oddsmakers are still overvaluing the Thunder.
So far, the Thunder are 0-3 SU and ATS. Two of their losses came by 21 and 33 points, respectively.
Their worst loss was dealt to them by a Houston squad that is also a bottom-feeder.
They came closest to covering the spread against Philadelphia. In that game, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had by far his best performance of the season, yet his team still lost by 12.
It is hard for oddsmakers to account for how bad and non-competitive the Thunder are.
Lack of Offense
Their roster simply lacks sufficient talent to compete on a daily basis.
They are also very young. Gilgeous-Alexander is 23, Luguentz Dort is 22, Josh Giddey is 19, Darius Bazley is 21, and the list continues in and beyond their starting lineup.
On such a young squad, it's crucial to have some veteran leadership, some proven scoring capability, and a consistent go-to scorer.
While Gilgeous-Alexander must be that go-to scorer, he shows up too rarely and it's still not enough when he does.
This kind of situation -- an offense which lacks experienced and reliable scorers -- resembles that of Orlando.
Like the Thunder, Orlando is one of five NBA teams to average fewer than 100 points right now.
The Magic reinforce the dire importance of relying on proven pieces.
With so much youth in key roles, the players have to develop and developing takes time.
It will therefore take time for the Thunder offense to gain any sort of competency.
More Developed Offense
In a sense, Golden State is like the Thunder, but only on a vastly advanced path.
When Steph Curry and Klay Thompson were both out, the Warriors were also stuck relying on several young players.
But now, they have the day-to-day mega-scorer, the superstar who the Thunder lack, healthy and on the court.
Curry ranks second in the NBA in averaging 31 points. His daily productivity helps explain why the Warriors are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS.
Of course, Curry is most well-known as a three-point shooter. Three-point shooting is reliably a source of harm for the Thunder defense, which allows the seventh-highest frequency of open three-point attempts.
Golden State youth also enjoys levels of development that Thunder youth is still striving to accomplish.
For example, Jordan Poole has strongly upped his scoring average despite underachieving -- relative to last year and to what one expects from him based on his strengths as a college player -- from behind the arc. He has developed a wider tool-kit of off-ball movements in order to create more scoring opportunities for himself.
Guys like Poole take advantage of the excessive attention that defenses have to devote to Curry.
Thunder Offense vs. Warrior Defense
In order to do serious damage to the Warrior defense, a team will want to flourish behind the arc.
Relatively speaking, the Warriors' perimeter defense is vulnerable. They are second-worst at limiting opposing three-point attempts.
However, since last season, the Thunder have shifted away from relying on three-point shooting.
Their lack of quality shooting is evident in their abysmal 26.6-percent three-point shooting rate, which is second-worst in the NBA right now and is quite similar to what they did last year.
They lack the firepower to keep up with the Warrior offense.
Best Bet: Warriors -9 at -108 with Heritage
Denver Nuggets vs. Utah Jazz
Tuesday, October 26, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET (TNT) at Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City
Three-Point Shooting
As has been the case in recent years, the Jazz love to shoot threes. They attempt the third-most threes per game.
It's therefore critical to address the following statistic: right now, the Nuggets allow the second-fewest three-pointers made per game.
Early in the season, one has to devote strong attention to the opponents that teams have played. Denver has played Phoenix, San Antonio, and Cleveland teams that rank bottom-10 in three-pointers made per game.
Given the quality or tendencies of its opponents so far, Denver has proven nothing with respect to its perimeter defense.
In view of its personnel and coaching relative to last year, there isn't any reason to expect the Nugget perimeter defense to improve upon last year's stats. Last season, they ranked in the bottom half in perimeter defense, for example ranking 19th in limiting opposing three-point efficiency.
Offensively, the Nuggets required a massive, anomalously strong three-point effort to score 110 against Phoenix -- something hard to replicate against Utah's annually highly-ranked perimeter defense. Otherwise, they scored a meagre 102 against the Spurs and 87 against Cleveland.
While their bench players and depth often stepped up in the playoffs, the regular season has been a different story. They still miss additional star power in the form of Jamal Murray.
Situation
Denver is in a uniquely tough situation playing in the second leg of a back-to-back.
Utah, in addition to its matchup advantages, enjoys having the decisively fresher team tonight.
Best Bet: Jazz -7 at -115 with BetOnline
Golden State Warriors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Tuesday, October 26, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City
Overrated
It may seem strange to say, but NBA Oddsmakers are still overvaluing the Thunder.
So far, the Thunder are 0-3 SU and ATS. Two of their losses came by 21 and 33 points, respectively.
Their worst loss was dealt to them by a Houston squad that is also a bottom-feeder.
They came closest to covering the spread against Philadelphia. In that game, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had by far his best performance of the season, yet his team still lost by 12.
It is hard for oddsmakers to account for how bad and non-competitive the Thunder are.
Lack of Offense
Their roster simply lacks sufficient talent to compete on a daily basis.
They are also very young. Gilgeous-Alexander is 23, Luguentz Dort is 22, Josh Giddey is 19, Darius Bazley is 21, and the list continues in and beyond their starting lineup.
On such a young squad, it's crucial to have some veteran leadership, some proven scoring capability, and a consistent go-to scorer.
While Gilgeous-Alexander must be that go-to scorer, he shows up too rarely and it's still not enough when he does.
This kind of situation -- an offense which lacks experienced and reliable scorers -- resembles that of Orlando.
Like the Thunder, Orlando is one of five NBA teams to average fewer than 100 points right now.
The Magic reinforce the dire importance of relying on proven pieces.
With so much youth in key roles, the players have to develop and developing takes time.
It will therefore take time for the Thunder offense to gain any sort of competency.
More Developed Offense
In a sense, Golden State is like the Thunder, but only on a vastly advanced path.
When Steph Curry and Klay Thompson were both out, the Warriors were also stuck relying on several young players.
But now, they have the day-to-day mega-scorer, the superstar who the Thunder lack, healthy and on the court.
Curry ranks second in the NBA in averaging 31 points. His daily productivity helps explain why the Warriors are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS.
Of course, Curry is most well-known as a three-point shooter. Three-point shooting is reliably a source of harm for the Thunder defense, which allows the seventh-highest frequency of open three-point attempts.
Golden State youth also enjoys levels of development that Thunder youth is still striving to accomplish.
For example, Jordan Poole has strongly upped his scoring average despite underachieving -- relative to last year and to what one expects from him based on his strengths as a college player -- from behind the arc. He has developed a wider tool-kit of off-ball movements in order to create more scoring opportunities for himself.
Guys like Poole take advantage of the excessive attention that defenses have to devote to Curry.
Thunder Offense vs. Warrior Defense
In order to do serious damage to the Warrior defense, a team will want to flourish behind the arc.
Relatively speaking, the Warriors' perimeter defense is vulnerable. They are second-worst at limiting opposing three-point attempts.
However, since last season, the Thunder have shifted away from relying on three-point shooting.
Their lack of quality shooting is evident in their abysmal 26.6-percent three-point shooting rate, which is second-worst in the NBA right now and is quite similar to what they did last year.
They lack the firepower to keep up with the Warrior offense.
Best Bet: Warriors -9 at -108 with Heritage
Denver Nuggets vs. Utah Jazz
Tuesday, October 26, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET (TNT) at Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City
Three-Point Shooting
As has been the case in recent years, the Jazz love to shoot threes. They attempt the third-most threes per game.
It's therefore critical to address the following statistic: right now, the Nuggets allow the second-fewest three-pointers made per game.
Early in the season, one has to devote strong attention to the opponents that teams have played. Denver has played Phoenix, San Antonio, and Cleveland teams that rank bottom-10 in three-pointers made per game.
Given the quality or tendencies of its opponents so far, Denver has proven nothing with respect to its perimeter defense.
In view of its personnel and coaching relative to last year, there isn't any reason to expect the Nugget perimeter defense to improve upon last year's stats. Last season, they ranked in the bottom half in perimeter defense, for example ranking 19th in limiting opposing three-point efficiency.
Offensively, the Nuggets required a massive, anomalously strong three-point effort to score 110 against Phoenix -- something hard to replicate against Utah's annually highly-ranked perimeter defense. Otherwise, they scored a meagre 102 against the Spurs and 87 against Cleveland.
While their bench players and depth often stepped up in the playoffs, the regular season has been a different story. They still miss additional star power in the form of Jamal Murray.
Situation
Denver is in a uniquely tough situation playing in the second leg of a back-to-back.
Utah, in addition to its matchup advantages, enjoys having the decisively fresher team tonight.
Best Bet: Jazz -7 at -115 with BetOnline
