Clippers Have The Fight To Out-Battle Warriors in Game 4
Golden State (59-26 SU, 37-47-1 ATS) at Los Angeles Clippers (49-36 SU, 46-38-1 ATS)
When: Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
NBA Pick: Clippers ATS
Recency bias is a dangerous phenomenon in sports betting. The Warriors looked incredible in Game 3. They moved with and without the ball with extreme fluidity and energy. After suffering a catastrophic comeback loss in Game 2, they were locked in and were lethally efficient on both sides of the court. In particular, Kevin Durant played with a chip on his shoulder and scored 38 points. After winning 132-105, they will attract a large following from the betting public. However, their own history suggests that we'll see a very different Warriors team. Whether out of arrogance or inconsistency, the Warriors tend to suffer a let-down performance after a dominating one. Since November, they have won 18 games by at least 15 points. Their ATS record in the game following a win by 15+ points is 4-13-1.
One thing that L.A. can do differently in Game 4 is make open shots. Open shot efficiency is a statistic that can easily vary from game to game. In Game 3, the Clippers were 14-for-53 (26.4%) on uncontested field goals. Conversely, Golden State went 36-for-68 (52.9%) on open field goals. One player who underachieved in Game 3 was Danilo Gallinari. During the regular season, he made 43.3% of his three-point attempts. In Game 3, though, he went 0-for-8 from three. Likewise, Landry Shamet went 0-for-4 from three, although he made 45% of his threes during the regular season. While Warrior scorers fall back down to Earth, L.A.'s shooters will return to their efficiency norms.
Scoring points gives players more confidence and energy on the defensive end. This was evident in Game 3 for the Warriors and it's a common psychological phenomenon. One defender who can make a difference in Shamet. Through Game 1 and Game 2, he guarded Steph Curry and Klay Thompson for combined 87 possessions and gave up only 20 points on 6-for-19 shooting. Another difference-maker has been Patrick Beverley. Beverley has harassed Kevin Durant, not letting him easily receive passes and likewise guarding him closely when he has the ball. He's getting under Durant's skin, forcing him to leave Game 1 and Game 2 early due to rejection or fouling out and forcing him to turn the ball over more than usual. In Game 2, Durant made only one field goal against Beverley.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="
" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
A key for the Clippers will be to get Lou Williams more involved in the offense. When the Clippers challenged and even beat the Warriors early in the regular season and in Game 2, Williams took a larger proportion of shots and accrued more assists. Williams did not start in Game 3 and did not play as much as he did in Game 2. Overall, L.A.'s starters struggled to get anything going and those struggles should propel Doc Rivers to give greater opportunity to Williams. The same things can be said for Montrezl Harrell, who basically disappeared in Game 3 after a successful Game 2. Overall, the Clippers could play a small-ball lineup that includes the versatile JaMychal Green at center. Green would make L.A.'s offense more dynamic. He would help force Golden State's bigs away from the basket to guard the perimeter and thereby expose the Warriors for missing DeMarcus Cousins, who is out for the series with an injury that he suffered in Game 2.
All season, the Warriors have played with an on-again and off-again mentality. They will lack the added edge that they played with in Game 3 will the Clippers will have no problem to bounce back in Game 4 by matching and even surpassing Golden State's energy. The Clippers will renew their intensity on defense, make more open shots on offense, and find a more propitious lineup that gets Williams, Green, and Harrell more involved.
Golden State (59-26 SU, 37-47-1 ATS) at Los Angeles Clippers (49-36 SU, 46-38-1 ATS)
When: Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
NBA Pick: Clippers ATS
Recency bias is a dangerous phenomenon in sports betting. The Warriors looked incredible in Game 3. They moved with and without the ball with extreme fluidity and energy. After suffering a catastrophic comeback loss in Game 2, they were locked in and were lethally efficient on both sides of the court. In particular, Kevin Durant played with a chip on his shoulder and scored 38 points. After winning 132-105, they will attract a large following from the betting public. However, their own history suggests that we'll see a very different Warriors team. Whether out of arrogance or inconsistency, the Warriors tend to suffer a let-down performance after a dominating one. Since November, they have won 18 games by at least 15 points. Their ATS record in the game following a win by 15+ points is 4-13-1.
One thing that L.A. can do differently in Game 4 is make open shots. Open shot efficiency is a statistic that can easily vary from game to game. In Game 3, the Clippers were 14-for-53 (26.4%) on uncontested field goals. Conversely, Golden State went 36-for-68 (52.9%) on open field goals. One player who underachieved in Game 3 was Danilo Gallinari. During the regular season, he made 43.3% of his three-point attempts. In Game 3, though, he went 0-for-8 from three. Likewise, Landry Shamet went 0-for-4 from three, although he made 45% of his threes during the regular season. While Warrior scorers fall back down to Earth, L.A.'s shooters will return to their efficiency norms.
Scoring points gives players more confidence and energy on the defensive end. This was evident in Game 3 for the Warriors and it's a common psychological phenomenon. One defender who can make a difference in Shamet. Through Game 1 and Game 2, he guarded Steph Curry and Klay Thompson for combined 87 possessions and gave up only 20 points on 6-for-19 shooting. Another difference-maker has been Patrick Beverley. Beverley has harassed Kevin Durant, not letting him easily receive passes and likewise guarding him closely when he has the ball. He's getting under Durant's skin, forcing him to leave Game 1 and Game 2 early due to rejection or fouling out and forcing him to turn the ball over more than usual. In Game 2, Durant made only one field goal against Beverley.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="
A key for the Clippers will be to get Lou Williams more involved in the offense. When the Clippers challenged and even beat the Warriors early in the regular season and in Game 2, Williams took a larger proportion of shots and accrued more assists. Williams did not start in Game 3 and did not play as much as he did in Game 2. Overall, L.A.'s starters struggled to get anything going and those struggles should propel Doc Rivers to give greater opportunity to Williams. The same things can be said for Montrezl Harrell, who basically disappeared in Game 3 after a successful Game 2. Overall, the Clippers could play a small-ball lineup that includes the versatile JaMychal Green at center. Green would make L.A.'s offense more dynamic. He would help force Golden State's bigs away from the basket to guard the perimeter and thereby expose the Warriors for missing DeMarcus Cousins, who is out for the series with an injury that he suffered in Game 2.
All season, the Warriors have played with an on-again and off-again mentality. They will lack the added edge that they played with in Game 3 will the Clippers will have no problem to bounce back in Game 4 by matching and even surpassing Golden State's energy. The Clippers will renew their intensity on defense, make more open shots on offense, and find a more propitious lineup that gets Williams, Green, and Harrell more involved.
Can‘t wait to see Paul and Griffin take down the Warriors!
