Wallabies vs All Blacks

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
The Wallabies
Extremely unlucky to lose to a superior Bok team than the one the ABs scraped past last week, and thats even after they went down 3-10 early. Two words sum up that performance, great defense after a slow start.

The All Blacks
My take on the AB's at present is they're still in 2nd or 3rd gear. Part of the reason is the numerous minor & major injuries important players are suffering from. For instance, Conrad Smith would easily be the 1st choice centre, but for this Test regular fullback Mils Muliaina starts there (which is reaching for a 4th choice on the prefered lineup). South Africa should have beaten them last week but the yellow card they got in the 2nd half set them up to be worn out come that game's final 10 minutes, and if the Boks hadnt been missing numerous players due to injury, I've little doubt they would have won.


With the news that the Boks are sending a substandard side on the road for the rest of the Tri-Nations, this game suddenly becomes Australia's biggest prior to the World Cup. This game alone will be the prism through which they get judged/viewed/pressured by, since any decent win over the Boks will be written off as fully expected. Similarly, what Australia do in their test in New Zealand will have the road venue excuse tied to it.
My take on this game is the enormity it carries for Australia, tied with how each of these teams performed respectively against significantly different Bok teams (and even Bok performances - Percy Montgomery saves his worst rugby for playing New Zealand, the guy is a shocker) and with how the ABs are still only slowly building up their momentum for the only thing that matters to them this season (the WC), means that I believe Australia can win this game, and I fully expect them to be at least in with a chance to win it come the final 10 minutes. Which means getting nearly 2 tries ATS is something that cannot be ignored. While the ABs will naturally be up for this game, I simply do not see them bringing any more to it than what the Wallabies will - they'll want to have it, but Australia has to have it.

Australia +12.5
 
I think you're on the right side in this one BC. Can see this coming down to a penalty goal to decide the winner...

Heart says All Blacks, Head says Wallabies...

Good luck.

:shake:
 
clay, emkee - thanks. It's already dropped 7 cents inside a day at the TAB. IMO if this one losses it'll be 13-14 pts that the ABs win by.
 
Classic mush job.

Too many from the public undoubtedly on Wallabies, I see, as line is plunging.

Don't like it anymore.

Screw the public :(
 
Honestly, I dont share your concern CC. McAlister is now at centre w/MacDonald ruled out, so the backline just got weaker. McA imo still has some maturing to go at this level, and he's a better fit closer to number 9 than further away from it.

Plus IMO this line was inflated to begin with. Autralia +10.5 is moving towards the price range reflecting a balanced opening line, and thats what I pretty much was expecting. I certainly wouldnt have backed this option so far out from the Test if it had been 10.5. At it stands, I think they opened it a conversion more than what it should have been, so all the market is doing is reflecting that fact
 
Well, as much as I hate to join the public, I can't pass up Wallabies on the spread here, as I really do think they can win outright, so the points just give some room for error.

The Wallabies cannot get down early, or this can and will turn in to a hiding. ABs get a huge boost with Chris Jack back at lock....something they didn't have in Durban last week, and this troubles me, betting Australia.

Should be a lot of fun.

Cheers, BC!
 
BOL CC - Aussie's extra week of rest is a big reason why I dont believe they get a hiding (as their worst result) here. As long as that tough defense off the extra rest shows up, I think the ABs are in for a long night. I think you'll see the best AB performances this series for their final home games, thats when I'll consider laying the points.
 
Agreed, BC.

Got the satellite on intercept mode here in USA.

George Smith vs McCaw should really be worth the hype. Rocky Elsom needs to have a big night, but keep his nose clean. He gets a little too attitude sometimes, and he cannot get sin-binned, or this spread will get rocked.

Kelleher doesn't scare me one bit. Larkham needs to stay in the match for the full 80 and play smart, like only he can. Wallabies pair at HB should have too much class. Wallabies can win this one, but no silly, mental mistakes, or ABs will cover in the end. ABs just too solid on counters and loose.

Just rambling.
 
Huge try by Australia, but goddamn missed penalty goals have put this bet in real danger. This could be 19-15 to Aussie right now, instead they're still 13-15 down
 
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO-HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

Great win, BC.

Now, load up on ABs to win RWC '07 and eat the chalk.

Just took Wallabies on spread tonight, didn't mess with ML-----always lose them, so not worried about it.
 
sometimes the bookies simply get it wrong, Clay. Aussie would have won by more but for their very nervous 1st half. ABs simply not at their peak, and wont be til when it really counts.:cheers:
 
Yeah, Wallabies totally dominated 2H. It really wasn't close, but since the opponent is the ABs, you never blink or breathe. The missed PKs were crucial, and had the ABs not been worn down from the travel and the brutal 'Boks match in Durban last week, the Wallabies would have paid for it, and it would have been stern.

You are right, BC, the bookies got this wrong at the beginning, and they scrambled in taking the line down. I "only" got the Wallabies +11 on 5 Dimes, and I was worried that I got suckered in to a public pull, cause 5 Dimes drags their feet and won't post rugby or Aussie rules until right before match starts. It sucks, but living in USA is what it is.

Fading the ABs is like fading Roger Federer when he doesn't play Nadal......very hard to get it right.

But, in retrospect, BC, very well done on this one!!!!!!

Cheers
 
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