One of keys to strong handicapping is one week doesn’t mean that they will perform the same the next week or two, three..each week is a new event. Handicap that way and your success rate will improve.
Also, Michigan hasn’t covered a week but that’s more game script, they have a -Ev game script most weeks. They only run a certain amount of plays and even with a high EPA or YPP, they and other teams have also +Ev game script. Now, this was one week they have opportunity to cover.
Trends do matter, at times, but be reasonable when making your lines. A model is only as strong as it’s other factors, injuries, coaching matters, OC/DC are incorporated in my lines. A CEO must rely on strong executive and motivate them as well. Later in year if an executive is focusing on their next job, this must be factored in line.
Transfers and props are the next best thing. I agree props have a good chance to be +EV on books if model is strong, good understanding of game script and what OC does and can project. Some good sites who offer strong projections on props and worth it if you can find enough books who offer lines.
Just a quick note on a Saturday
