Wake Forest vs. Missouri Gasparilla Bowl Best Bets: Wake Forest to Triumph in Shootout
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Missouri Tigers
Friday, December 23, 2022 at 6:30 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida
Best Bet: Demon Deacons -1 at -108 with BetOnline
Assessing Missouri's Pass Defense
With quarterback Sam Hartman being Wake Forest's most well-known player, it makes sense to attach extra analytical weight to the quality of Missouri's pass defense.
If a pass defense is as good as the best quarterback that it's dealt with successfully, then not much can be said in favor of Missouri's pass defense.
The Tiger secondary had unbelievable luck this season in terms of the quality of opponents that they faced.
In facing Kansas State, Auburn, Florida, and maybe Arkansas -- KJ Jefferson has a reputation for having accuracy problems despite his good completion percentage -- Missouri got to face quarterbacks who are stronger as runners than as passers.
Otherwise, the Tigers faced a sluggish Georgia team on a Friday night in Missouri, a Kentucky team quarterbacked by the embodiment of mediocrity -- Will Levis ranks 61stin quarterback rating -- and some low-profile schools.
Missouri dodged the good version of South Carolina that, later in the season after its game against the Tigers, made offensive adjustments and suddenly became something like an offensive juggernaut.
Otherwise, the Tigers faced Tennessee and allowed Volunteer quarterback Hendon Hooker to achieve his second-highest pass yardage total of the season.
The Supposed Strength of Mizzou's Pass Defense
The best asset of Missouri's pass defense is supposed to be its pass rush.
Defensive linemen Isaiah McGuire and DJ Coleman, and safety Martez Manuel led the team in sacks.
Those important defenders have opted out of this bowl game in order to focus on the NFL Draft.
Their absence will weigh heavily on this game because, in the regular season, no other Tiger player accrued as many as four sacks.
This team's lack of pass rush means that the characteristic strength of its pass defense won't be evident in this game.
The strength of Missouri's pass defense is certainly not its cornerback play.
After suffering key departures last offseason, the Tiger cornerback group is rebuilding.
Despite the easiness of its schedule -- in terms of quality of opposing passers faced, the Tigers rank just above average in terms of limiting the opponent's passer rating.
Their ranking was this poor largely because of its secondary quality.
But also their pass rush will struggle in the bowl game.
Sam Hartman
So just how good is Wake Forest's quarterback?
Nationally, Hartman ranked 12thin passing yards, 35thin touchdowns, and 19thin passer rating.
While he has thrown too many interceptions -- 11 -- more than half of those came in two games against Louisville with its top-caliber pass rush and against an NC State team whose cornerback group is vastly more developed than Missouri's.
Even with their pass rush and the low opposing passing quality of their opposing quarterbacks, the Tigers averaged 0.8 interceptions per game.
Instead of throwing interceptions, Hartman will be showing his good arm and good ball placement tendencies, both of which allow him to find his targets on all parts of the field.
His lack of interceptions has proven significant from a betting perspective because his team's worst games -- as measured by how distant they were from covering the spread -- came in the three games in which he threw multiple interceptions.
He threw two or three interceptions in Wake's blowout losses to NC State and Louisville and in its near-loss to massive underdog Liberty.
Faith in Missouri's Offense?
It's impossible to like Missouri to cover the spread in a game when one does not like the Tiger defense.
Too often, the Tiger offense struggles to sustain drives.
These struggles were most apparent in the team's near-loss to Vanderbilt and in other games that explain why Missouri ranks 86thnationally in total yards per game.
Mizzou's offensive line play is often shoddy, which is why quarterback Brady Cook often struggled to stay upright.
Brady Cook
Cook is also a large part of the problem.
I mainly like Wake Forest because the Demon Deacons own a significant quarterback advantage with Hartman in a game that will need to be pass-heavy on both sides for either team to have the best chance of winning.
Cook will need to keep up with Hartman, but Cook contributes to his team's frequent difficulty with sustaining drives.
His decision-making and accuracy are generally problematic.
Over half of Cook's touchdowns this season came against low-profile Abilene Christian and New Mexico State.
Total Verdict
Cook's lackluster quality notwithstanding, the Demon Deacons ranked 113that limiting the opponent's passer rating.
Plus, two of their top cornerbacks entered the transfer portal.
So, any quarterback could be productive against them and Cook is any quarterback.
This will be another game in which Wake reaches 40 points while Missouri will add enough to help the game go "over" the posted total.
For the above reasons, I recommend playing Wake Forest ATS and the "over."
Beat Bet: Over 61 at -110 with BetOnline
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Missouri Tigers
Friday, December 23, 2022 at 6:30 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida
Best Bet: Demon Deacons -1 at -108 with BetOnline
Assessing Missouri's Pass Defense
With quarterback Sam Hartman being Wake Forest's most well-known player, it makes sense to attach extra analytical weight to the quality of Missouri's pass defense.
If a pass defense is as good as the best quarterback that it's dealt with successfully, then not much can be said in favor of Missouri's pass defense.
The Tiger secondary had unbelievable luck this season in terms of the quality of opponents that they faced.
In facing Kansas State, Auburn, Florida, and maybe Arkansas -- KJ Jefferson has a reputation for having accuracy problems despite his good completion percentage -- Missouri got to face quarterbacks who are stronger as runners than as passers.
Otherwise, the Tigers faced a sluggish Georgia team on a Friday night in Missouri, a Kentucky team quarterbacked by the embodiment of mediocrity -- Will Levis ranks 61stin quarterback rating -- and some low-profile schools.
Missouri dodged the good version of South Carolina that, later in the season after its game against the Tigers, made offensive adjustments and suddenly became something like an offensive juggernaut.
Otherwise, the Tigers faced Tennessee and allowed Volunteer quarterback Hendon Hooker to achieve his second-highest pass yardage total of the season.
The Supposed Strength of Mizzou's Pass Defense
The best asset of Missouri's pass defense is supposed to be its pass rush.
Defensive linemen Isaiah McGuire and DJ Coleman, and safety Martez Manuel led the team in sacks.
Those important defenders have opted out of this bowl game in order to focus on the NFL Draft.
Their absence will weigh heavily on this game because, in the regular season, no other Tiger player accrued as many as four sacks.
This team's lack of pass rush means that the characteristic strength of its pass defense won't be evident in this game.
The strength of Missouri's pass defense is certainly not its cornerback play.
After suffering key departures last offseason, the Tiger cornerback group is rebuilding.
Despite the easiness of its schedule -- in terms of quality of opposing passers faced, the Tigers rank just above average in terms of limiting the opponent's passer rating.
Their ranking was this poor largely because of its secondary quality.
But also their pass rush will struggle in the bowl game.
Sam Hartman
So just how good is Wake Forest's quarterback?
Nationally, Hartman ranked 12thin passing yards, 35thin touchdowns, and 19thin passer rating.
While he has thrown too many interceptions -- 11 -- more than half of those came in two games against Louisville with its top-caliber pass rush and against an NC State team whose cornerback group is vastly more developed than Missouri's.
Even with their pass rush and the low opposing passing quality of their opposing quarterbacks, the Tigers averaged 0.8 interceptions per game.
Instead of throwing interceptions, Hartman will be showing his good arm and good ball placement tendencies, both of which allow him to find his targets on all parts of the field.
His lack of interceptions has proven significant from a betting perspective because his team's worst games -- as measured by how distant they were from covering the spread -- came in the three games in which he threw multiple interceptions.
He threw two or three interceptions in Wake's blowout losses to NC State and Louisville and in its near-loss to massive underdog Liberty.
Faith in Missouri's Offense?
It's impossible to like Missouri to cover the spread in a game when one does not like the Tiger defense.
Too often, the Tiger offense struggles to sustain drives.
These struggles were most apparent in the team's near-loss to Vanderbilt and in other games that explain why Missouri ranks 86thnationally in total yards per game.
Mizzou's offensive line play is often shoddy, which is why quarterback Brady Cook often struggled to stay upright.
Brady Cook
Cook is also a large part of the problem.
I mainly like Wake Forest because the Demon Deacons own a significant quarterback advantage with Hartman in a game that will need to be pass-heavy on both sides for either team to have the best chance of winning.
Cook will need to keep up with Hartman, but Cook contributes to his team's frequent difficulty with sustaining drives.
His decision-making and accuracy are generally problematic.
Over half of Cook's touchdowns this season came against low-profile Abilene Christian and New Mexico State.
Total Verdict
Cook's lackluster quality notwithstanding, the Demon Deacons ranked 113that limiting the opponent's passer rating.
Plus, two of their top cornerbacks entered the transfer portal.
So, any quarterback could be productive against them and Cook is any quarterback.
This will be another game in which Wake reaches 40 points while Missouri will add enough to help the game go "over" the posted total.
For the above reasons, I recommend playing Wake Forest ATS and the "over."
Beat Bet: Over 61 at -110 with BetOnline
