Volvo China Open

[LeRinkRat]

Thursday April 26th thru Sunday April 29th
with the time change between the USA and China the tourney starts Wednesday night in the US

favorites:
Alex Levy 10-1 (last years winner. won last week in Morocco)
Haotong Li 15-1 (won two years ago. won the Dubai Desert Classic in January)
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 16-1 (won Super 6 Perth, Australia in Febuary)
Brend Wiesberger 18-1 (won @ Shenzhen, China last season. tied 4th last season this tourney)
Joost Luiten 18-1 (won in Oman in February)
Paul Dunne 20-1 (3rd round leader Open de Espana. finished 2nd to Jon Rahm)

my long shot "best bets" (bet/return)
Erik Van Rooyen 50-1 (10/510)
Ryan Fox 60-1 (8/488)
Mikko Ilonen 60-1 (8/488)
Paul Peterson 60-1 (8/488)
Matt Wallace 75-1 (7/532)
Alvaro Quiros 80-1 (6.25/506.25)
David Lipsky 80-1 (6.25/506.25)
Ashun Wu 100-1 (5/505)
Joakim Lagergren 100-1 (5/505)
Julien Guerrier 125-1 (4/504)
Austin Connelly 125-1 (4/504)
Markus Kinhult 125-1 (4/504)
total bet $68.50

tourney match play bets (bet/return)
Adrain Otaegui -110 over Thomas Detry (55/105)
Jorge Campillo even over Thorbjorn Olesen (50/100)
Pablo Larrazabal even over Seung Su Han (50/100)

 

[B.A.R.]

Welcome back, nice to see you.

Has Li played since the Masters?

 

[LeRinkRat]

Welcome back, nice to see you.

Has Li played since the Masters?

NO and he has been performing poorly since holding off Rory McIlroy for the WIN @ the Dubai Desert Classic back in January with CUT Maybank, 63rd WGC-Mexico tied 59th WGC-Match Play and tied 32nd Masters BUT, like the Spaniard Jon Rahm @ Open de Espana, this is definitely a "focus" tourney for Li

 

[B.A.R.]

Thanks.

Awesome to see more more golf handicapping.

 

[LeRinkRat]

just a reminder that 1st tee time in China is Wednesday evening @ 6:40pm eastern / 3:40pm pacific time. coverage is scheduled on The Golf Channel @ 10:30pm eastern / 7:30pm pacific. the "feature" group of Alex Levy, Haotong Li and Kiradech Aphibarnrat tees @ 7:20pm eastern / 4:20pm pacific :shake:

 

[LeRinkRat]

GOOD start for my match plays after the 1st round

Adrain Otaegui -110 [-4] over Thomas Detry [-1]
Jorge Campillo even [-3] over Thorbjorn Olesen [+2]
Pablo Larrazabal even [-2] over Seung Su Han [+2]

with any luck BOTH Olesen and Han will be CUTS end of 2nd round

Matt Wallace 75-1 Tied 2nd one shot behind some "mystery ChiCom" [-7] Wallace was a CUT his last two @ Trophee Hassan II and Open de Espana but WON the Indian Open [-11] in a playoff with Andy "Beef" Johnston

 

[LeRinkRat]

well somewhat got my wish 2nd round with BOTH Thomas Detry [+1] for [even] AND Seung Su Han [-2] for [even] CUTS so those two bets are already winners and I do NOT have to sweat the weekend. damn Thor Olesen came back with a 2nd round [-5] for [-3] so he is still "in play" with Jorge Campillo [-4] for [-7] going into Saturday.

Matt Wallace takes the tourney lead into the weekend with a 2nd round [-2] for [-9] one up on three players including Nacho Elvira and two up on four more including pre-tourney 125-1 shot Julien Guerrier, Jorge Campillo and Adrain Otaegui. with the CUT @ [-1] it is really still anyone's tourney. two years ago Haotong Li shot a 3rd round [-6] and final round [-8] to come from tied 9th going into the weekend to a three shot [-22] WIN

 

[LeRinkRat]

well it is TIGHT as a NUT going into the final round in Beijing with 24 players within 4 shots of the 3rd round [-12] lead. scoring favored the early tee time Saturday with last years winner Alex Levy shooting [-7] for tourney [-9] to get in contention after "squeaking" the CUT Friday. CAN he do a Haotong Li from two years ago ??? I would NOT bet against it. I wish the cowardly Las Vegas sportsbooks would list adjusted "to win" odds on Euro Tour tourneys like the do the PGA in the US

last 7 pairings Sunday (tee times Pacific time Saturday)
8:45pm / Clement Sordet [-9] & Ashun Wu [-9]
8:55 pm / Nacho Elvira [-10] & Alex Levy [-9]
9:05 pm / Sihwan Kim [-10] & Jeunghun Wang [-10]
9:15pm / Andrea Pavan [-10] & Paul Dunne [-10]
9:25pm / Jinho Choi [-10] & Jorge Campillo [-11]
9:35pm / Julien Guerrier [-11] & Alex Bjork [-11]
9:45pm / Adrain Otaegui [-12] & Matt Wallace [-12]

sweating my "to win" bets on Matt Wallace [-3] for tourney [-12], Julien Guerrier [-4] for [-11], ChiCom Ashun Wu [-6] for [-9] and Finlander Mikko Ilonen [-5] for [-8] who tees @ 8:10pm. outside chances for David Lipsky [-5] for [-6] and Ryan Fox [-4] for [-6] IF they could shoot a "bomber". they tee @ 7:00pm (10:00am Beijing time) and, like I said, the EARLY tee times had the wind advantage Saturday.

watching last night, Matt Wallace kind of "limped in" his last 3 holes Saturday missing the par 3 #16 and driving into the woods on #17 & #18 and looked like he had his Bruce "Crabby" Crampton on getting aggravated with the Chinese gallary. his playing partner Nacho Elvira was fighting intestinal sickness during the round BUT had the shot of the day on #18 hitting a long iron out of the woods to within 8 feet of the hole in two for an eagle chance BUT, being Nacho, he MISSED and had to settle for a birdie

forced to pick a WINNER today I would go with either Alex Levy, Paul Dunne, Jorge Campillo or the Asian-American kid Sihwan Kim. Kim must have MISSED half a dozen 4 to 6 foot putts for birdies on Saturday OR he would be running away with the tourney. BOTH Levy and Dunne can shoot "wicked low" when they get it going and Campillo has been VERY close to getting his first ever Euro Tour win this season with outright 2nd Maybank, tied 4th Oman and tied 5th Open de Espana

:shake:

 

[B.A.R.]

Thanks for the thoughts...

 

[LeRinkRat]

well THAT was a disappointment. freeking Matt Wallace was "WALL-E of Arabia" in his early final round play. he was in the sand in just about every cat box on the course and was missing the par 3 greens. ONLY reason he finished [-4] for tourney [-16] tied 3rd with Jorge Campillo [-5] and Jordan L Smith [-8] was his getting "up & down". like I said Saturday about a "bomber" round, the Swede Alex Bjork shoots a [-7] for tourney [-18] for his first ever Euro Tour WIN as a pre-tourney 40-1 with Wallace playing partner Adrain Otaegui 2nd [-5] for [-17] "Yo Adrain" JACKED a 5 foot put for a bogie on #17 or he would have been in a playoff with Bjork. keep an eye on Campillo in upcoming tourneys. his tied 3rd now his 4th top five in his last six tourneys. I suspect HE will "break his maiden" this season just like Bjork this week

at least I HIT my three tourney match plays this week