Virginia vs Miami: NCAAF Betting Picks and Predictions
Cavaliers vs Hurricanes
Friday, October 11 2019 at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Hard Rock Stadium
Odds
Miami opened as a one-point favorite against visiting Virginia. One trend to note is that UVA has covered its last four games in Miami.
Miami Has Serious Issues On Offense
Before betting on a team that's is favored, I like to know that it can score. Offense, however, is a big problem for Miami, especially at the start of games.
In its season opener against Florida, Miami fell behind 7-3 in the first quarter. In the second game, against UNC, the Hurricanes was down 17-3 after one quarter.
Against Central Michigan, the Hurricanes scored 17 points for the entire game. Last week against Virginia Tech, Miami fagged behind 28-0 before staging a late comeback.
On the season, Miami ranks 101st in scoring 10 first-half points per game. Its problems scoring contribute to its lack of success at the start of games.
Who Will Start At Quarterback For Miami?
After a 2-3 SU start, frustration is mounting in Miami. Last week, Jarren Williams was benched after throwing three interceptions. While Coach Diaz is affirming that he’s still the starter, it seems doubtful that he’ll play on Friday because he’s nursing a shoulder injury.
Williams already has problems stretching the field because he isn’t really a downfield passer. N’Kosi Perry is able to stretch the field vertically, though. But Perry can’t do much in general as he lacks intelligence and efficiency.
Perry is error-prone, sometimes doing things like running a bootleg in the wrong direction. Last year, he completed 50.8 percent of his passes. In Miami’s upset loss against Virginia, he made characteristically poor decisions as he threw two interceptions on six pass attempts.
Little Help For Perry In The Trenches
Calling Miami's offensive line a catastrophe is not an overstatement. It ranks 93rd in opportunity rate, a metric which basically measures how effective a team’s run-blocking is. It also ranks 127th in sack rate, allowing pressure to arrive at the quarterback at one of the nation’s highest rates.
Virginia is not the opponent to even begin to fix tremendous problems with protection against. The Cavs rank sixth nationally in sack rate. The bulk of their pass rush comes from the linebacker position where Jordan Mack leads the team with six sacks.
UVA’s run defense still ranks 15th in opposing YPC, despite allowing a huge day from a Notre Dame run-game that is supported by an offensive line that is everything which Miami’s is not—highly skilled, experienced, enjoying strong chemistry, and bigger and stronger.
For example, Virginia faced Florida State and limited its stud running back Cam Akers to 4.3 YPC, which was his second-worst performance of the season.
Coach Mendenhall can afford to be aggressive with his front seven because he can trust the secondary behind him.
Cornerback Bryce Hall, who was justly named on countless preseason watch lists, will be key to limiting Miami’s most explosive player, Jeff Thomas. Hall is known for his good foot speed and even better reaction and game speed.
Virginia’s Offense Is Competent
On other side of the ball, Virginia does boast protection issues of its own, just like Miami does.
But the Cavs separate themselves at quarterback with Bryce Perkins. Perkins is a playmaker who can be surprisingly difficult for defenders to tackle and he’s also an efficient passer, which many people underestimate about him. Like last year, he’s completing well over 60 percent of his passes.
Big plays will happen in this game as Miami’s defense has repeatedly shown to be vulnerable to giving them up. Look for Joe Reed to take advantage as Virginia can line him up anywhere and allow him to use his burst into open space, his ability to make potential tacklers miss one-on-one, and his solid route running in various formations. Check the tweets below for sample evidence.
Virginia’s coaching advantage with Mendenhall pitted against Manny Diaz will be evident partly in how it uses Perkins and Reed to sustain drives and generate chunk plays for Virginia’s offense.
Under Diaz, the Hurricanes have shown head-scratching unawareness of the strengths of opposing and even its own players. One example of many is allowing Virginia Tech’s quarterback last week to have a field day running as the Hurricanes seemed unaware that this was a strength of his.
Conclusion
Miami’s offense isn’t really in flux with its quarterback change because Perry is experienced. But Virginia knows what it’ll get from Perry and already has found much success when he leads Miami’s offense. Virginia’s pass rush and high-ranking ability to stop the run will prevent Perry from getting enough support.
On the other side of the ball, Bryce Perkins is a competent option for Virginia with his efficiency and he enjoys great chemistry with his returning receivers Joe Reed and Hasise Dubois.
Best Bet: Virginia first-half ML at +123 odds with Pinnacle and Virginia full-game ML at +120 odds with 5Dimes
Cavaliers vs Hurricanes
Friday, October 11 2019 at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Hard Rock Stadium
Odds
Miami opened as a one-point favorite against visiting Virginia. One trend to note is that UVA has covered its last four games in Miami.
Miami Has Serious Issues On Offense
Before betting on a team that's is favored, I like to know that it can score. Offense, however, is a big problem for Miami, especially at the start of games.
In its season opener against Florida, Miami fell behind 7-3 in the first quarter. In the second game, against UNC, the Hurricanes was down 17-3 after one quarter.
Against Central Michigan, the Hurricanes scored 17 points for the entire game. Last week against Virginia Tech, Miami fagged behind 28-0 before staging a late comeback.
On the season, Miami ranks 101st in scoring 10 first-half points per game. Its problems scoring contribute to its lack of success at the start of games.
Who Will Start At Quarterback For Miami?
After a 2-3 SU start, frustration is mounting in Miami. Last week, Jarren Williams was benched after throwing three interceptions. While Coach Diaz is affirming that he’s still the starter, it seems doubtful that he’ll play on Friday because he’s nursing a shoulder injury.
Williams already has problems stretching the field because he isn’t really a downfield passer. N’Kosi Perry is able to stretch the field vertically, though. But Perry can’t do much in general as he lacks intelligence and efficiency.
Perry is error-prone, sometimes doing things like running a bootleg in the wrong direction. Last year, he completed 50.8 percent of his passes. In Miami’s upset loss against Virginia, he made characteristically poor decisions as he threw two interceptions on six pass attempts.
Little Help For Perry In The Trenches
Calling Miami's offensive line a catastrophe is not an overstatement. It ranks 93rd in opportunity rate, a metric which basically measures how effective a team’s run-blocking is. It also ranks 127th in sack rate, allowing pressure to arrive at the quarterback at one of the nation’s highest rates.
Virginia is not the opponent to even begin to fix tremendous problems with protection against. The Cavs rank sixth nationally in sack rate. The bulk of their pass rush comes from the linebacker position where Jordan Mack leads the team with six sacks.
UVA’s run defense still ranks 15th in opposing YPC, despite allowing a huge day from a Notre Dame run-game that is supported by an offensive line that is everything which Miami’s is not—highly skilled, experienced, enjoying strong chemistry, and bigger and stronger.
For example, Virginia faced Florida State and limited its stud running back Cam Akers to 4.3 YPC, which was his second-worst performance of the season.
Coach Mendenhall can afford to be aggressive with his front seven because he can trust the secondary behind him.
Cornerback Bryce Hall, who was justly named on countless preseason watch lists, will be key to limiting Miami’s most explosive player, Jeff Thomas. Hall is known for his good foot speed and even better reaction and game speed.
Virginia’s Offense Is Competent
On other side of the ball, Virginia does boast protection issues of its own, just like Miami does.
But the Cavs separate themselves at quarterback with Bryce Perkins. Perkins is a playmaker who can be surprisingly difficult for defenders to tackle and he’s also an efficient passer, which many people underestimate about him. Like last year, he’s completing well over 60 percent of his passes.
Big plays will happen in this game as Miami’s defense has repeatedly shown to be vulnerable to giving them up. Look for Joe Reed to take advantage as Virginia can line him up anywhere and allow him to use his burst into open space, his ability to make potential tacklers miss one-on-one, and his solid route running in various formations. Check the tweets below for sample evidence.
Virginia’s coaching advantage with Mendenhall pitted against Manny Diaz will be evident partly in how it uses Perkins and Reed to sustain drives and generate chunk plays for Virginia’s offense.
Under Diaz, the Hurricanes have shown head-scratching unawareness of the strengths of opposing and even its own players. One example of many is allowing Virginia Tech’s quarterback last week to have a field day running as the Hurricanes seemed unaware that this was a strength of his.
Conclusion
Miami’s offense isn’t really in flux with its quarterback change because Perry is experienced. But Virginia knows what it’ll get from Perry and already has found much success when he leads Miami’s offense. Virginia’s pass rush and high-ranking ability to stop the run will prevent Perry from getting enough support.
On the other side of the ball, Bryce Perkins is a competent option for Virginia with his efficiency and he enjoys great chemistry with his returning receivers Joe Reed and Hasise Dubois.
Best Bet: Virginia first-half ML at +123 odds with Pinnacle and Virginia full-game ML at +120 odds with 5Dimes
