Saturday's Best Bets: Add This College Football Week 6 Parlay:
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Louisville Cardinals
Saturday, October 9, 2021 at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville
Reviewing History
With last year, in particular, in mind, one might try to promote the narrative that Virginia's defense has Cardinal quarterback Malik Cunningham's number.
It is true that, last year, Virginia beat Louisville 31-17 and gave Cunningham a bad game.
But one cannot forget that Louisville was coming off a COVID-induced pause.
All of last year demonstrated how college football players need the consistency offered by normal practice sessions in order to play well.
Without that consistency in place the Cardinals in last year's match-up, it really is impossible to blame them for losing last year's game.
The kind of history that I'm rather interested in for this game is the following: Virginia allowed 28 points to a Miami team that was playing a freshman quarterback, Tyler Van Dyke, who was making his first career start against an FBS team, a team not named Central Connecticut.
Virginia's Porous Run Defense
Without posing a meaningful threat through the air, Miami still managed to run the ball effectively down UVA's throats.
Led by Cam'Ron Harris, the Hurricanes ran 40 times for 169 yards. Harris' numbers against Virginia were comparable to those that he produced against Central Connecticut and superior to those that he generated against App State.
This season, despite Bronco Mendenhall's attempts to install schematic adjustments, UVA's run defense has consistently been porous. It ranks 112th nationally in "limiting" opponents to 220 rushing yards per game.
These struggles must appear unsurprising in view of the significant losses that, during the offseason, Virginia incurred at linebacker. Charles Snowden and Zane Zandier had both been stalwarts in what is primarily a linebacker-driven defense under Mendenhall.
This is a great spot in which to expect UVA's run defense to struggle yet again because a Louisville offense that likes to strike a balance between passing and running is making considerable and crucial improvements.
In particular, earlier in the season, the Cardinal offensive line had merited criticism.
But now, this unit is growing more cohesive and communicating more effectively together.
This growth is reflected in starting running back Jalen Mitchell's last performance. Against ranked Wake Forest, he produced season bests in rushing yards and YPC: he ran for 89 yards on 17 carries.
An improving Louisville rush attack will inflict severe damage on Virginia's vulnerable run defense.
Malik Cunningham vs. Virginia Pass Defense
Louisville's offense relies primarily on quarterback Malik Cunningham, who also likes to run the ball.
Cunningham's running ability -- he is the team's second-leading rusher with 309 yards -- is meaningful against a Cavalier defense that reliably struggles to keep contain.
UVA's defensive struggles against mobile quarterbacks were apparent, for example, in the game against UNC where Tar Heel quarterback Sam Howell
amassed a season-high 112 rushing yards.
Per film footage, hesitancy and lack of quickness characterize UVA defenders in their attempts to contain opposing mobile quarterbacks.
The Virginia pass defense hardly inspires more optimism as it still ranks 98th after facing Miami's freshman quarterback.
Total
In contrast to the two-dimensional offense that the Cardinals will bring against UVA's inept defense, Virginia's offense will be one-dimensional.
Even against FCS teams like William & Mary, the Cav offensive-line is startingly unable to muster a push.
Plus, Virginia often falls behind, which creates greater necessity to pass the ball.
For the above reasons, UVA owns the nation's fourth-highest pass rate.
With a gunslinger in Brennan Armstrong who has nearly 2,000 passing yards after five games and who also loves to scramble, Virginia will contribute its own share of points.
In his skill set, Armstrong resembles UCF's Dillon Gabriel, who helped UCF to 35 points despite hardly being able to run against a Cardinal defense that, importantly, respectably keeps opposing mobile quarterbacks in check.
With vastly less run support, Armstrong will pass more -- and find success doing so -- against a Cardinal pass defense that ranks 101st nationally in opposing passer rating.
The Verdict
Louisville will bounce back with its two-dimensional offense against a Virginia team that can still score, but lacks the same balance or competence on either side of the ball.
For the above reasons, parlay Louisville and the over.
Best Bet: Parlay Cardinals -2.5 at -108 & Over 67.5 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Louisville Cardinals
Saturday, October 9, 2021 at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville
Reviewing History
With last year, in particular, in mind, one might try to promote the narrative that Virginia's defense has Cardinal quarterback Malik Cunningham's number.
It is true that, last year, Virginia beat Louisville 31-17 and gave Cunningham a bad game.
But one cannot forget that Louisville was coming off a COVID-induced pause.
All of last year demonstrated how college football players need the consistency offered by normal practice sessions in order to play well.
Without that consistency in place the Cardinals in last year's match-up, it really is impossible to blame them for losing last year's game.
The kind of history that I'm rather interested in for this game is the following: Virginia allowed 28 points to a Miami team that was playing a freshman quarterback, Tyler Van Dyke, who was making his first career start against an FBS team, a team not named Central Connecticut.
Virginia's Porous Run Defense
Without posing a meaningful threat through the air, Miami still managed to run the ball effectively down UVA's throats.
Led by Cam'Ron Harris, the Hurricanes ran 40 times for 169 yards. Harris' numbers against Virginia were comparable to those that he produced against Central Connecticut and superior to those that he generated against App State.
This season, despite Bronco Mendenhall's attempts to install schematic adjustments, UVA's run defense has consistently been porous. It ranks 112th nationally in "limiting" opponents to 220 rushing yards per game.
These struggles must appear unsurprising in view of the significant losses that, during the offseason, Virginia incurred at linebacker. Charles Snowden and Zane Zandier had both been stalwarts in what is primarily a linebacker-driven defense under Mendenhall.
This is a great spot in which to expect UVA's run defense to struggle yet again because a Louisville offense that likes to strike a balance between passing and running is making considerable and crucial improvements.
In particular, earlier in the season, the Cardinal offensive line had merited criticism.
But now, this unit is growing more cohesive and communicating more effectively together.
This growth is reflected in starting running back Jalen Mitchell's last performance. Against ranked Wake Forest, he produced season bests in rushing yards and YPC: he ran for 89 yards on 17 carries.
An improving Louisville rush attack will inflict severe damage on Virginia's vulnerable run defense.
Malik Cunningham vs. Virginia Pass Defense
Louisville's offense relies primarily on quarterback Malik Cunningham, who also likes to run the ball.
Cunningham's running ability -- he is the team's second-leading rusher with 309 yards -- is meaningful against a Cavalier defense that reliably struggles to keep contain.
UVA's defensive struggles against mobile quarterbacks were apparent, for example, in the game against UNC where Tar Heel quarterback Sam Howell
amassed a season-high 112 rushing yards.
Per film footage, hesitancy and lack of quickness characterize UVA defenders in their attempts to contain opposing mobile quarterbacks.
The Virginia pass defense hardly inspires more optimism as it still ranks 98th after facing Miami's freshman quarterback.
Total
In contrast to the two-dimensional offense that the Cardinals will bring against UVA's inept defense, Virginia's offense will be one-dimensional.
Even against FCS teams like William & Mary, the Cav offensive-line is startingly unable to muster a push.
Plus, Virginia often falls behind, which creates greater necessity to pass the ball.
For the above reasons, UVA owns the nation's fourth-highest pass rate.
With a gunslinger in Brennan Armstrong who has nearly 2,000 passing yards after five games and who also loves to scramble, Virginia will contribute its own share of points.
In his skill set, Armstrong resembles UCF's Dillon Gabriel, who helped UCF to 35 points despite hardly being able to run against a Cardinal defense that, importantly, respectably keeps opposing mobile quarterbacks in check.
With vastly less run support, Armstrong will pass more -- and find success doing so -- against a Cardinal pass defense that ranks 101st nationally in opposing passer rating.
The Verdict
Louisville will bounce back with its two-dimensional offense against a Virginia team that can still score, but lacks the same balance or competence on either side of the ball.
For the above reasons, parlay Louisville and the over.
Best Bet: Parlay Cardinals -2.5 at -108 & Over 67.5 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
