Virginia vs Duke Thoughts

[VirginiaCavs]

First major question: Why does Daniel Jones have such poor career numbers against Bronco Mendenhall-led Virginia? Last year: 14/42 124 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT. His numbers against G Tech, V Tech, and NW have significantly improved from last season. However, V Tech lost very significant experience in the secondary, NW lost its two best d-backs, and GT lost a ton as well. (Altho DJ benefited greatly from short fields against GT in 2018 to get quick touchdown passes). Accordingly, all three teams have dropped in opposing QBR, especially VT and NW. So improvement against those teams doesn't really show that he got better.
He struggled against Virginia's man coverage in trying to fit the ball into tight spaces and against Virginia's pass rush. He didn't throw well with pressure in his face. His best hopes were to roll out and throw short with an open passing lane to an open receiver or back.

I saw Daniel Jones' performance against Army and it was much different in that he had time to throw, time for the play to develop and he threw balls as nicely as he did against UVA in 2017, Army's defenses just afforded him many more opportunities. This year's UVA is returning as significant experience as Duke's wide receiving corps, the difference is that UVA's d-line has suffered significant quality and depth. This showed in the lack of pressure that it applied against NC State's strong pass protection. Finley had time to make throws, also had help from higher-quality receivers (for instance, the first touchdown which was actually almost an INT, but NC State's receiver showed greater ball skill). The NC State pass attack is a step up from Duke's. Duke's pass protection is looking a lot worse than last year's. So both UVA's pass rush and Duke's pass protection are taking a step up. It's not that DJ is any less elusive, either. Obviously its disconcerting to see how few sacks and how little QB pressure UVA managed in its last two games--though it still got away with it against Miami thanks to Miami's awful quarterbacks who love to float deep passes that easily get intercepted. But Duke's o-line is simply a step back.

I will keep contemplating DJ vs UVA secondary and add other components as the week progresses.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

The Hoos returned 7 of 8 linebackers (all but Kizer), also missed Malcolm Cook for a bit (got him back against Miami). The run D shows the same big issue as last year: susceptibility to the big play. They allowed 204 yards on 31 carries to Indiana's Stevie Scott. 82 of those yards came on just 2 carries. Likewise, 75 of the 90 yards that Travis Homer ran for last week came on one run. NC State's Ricky Person Jr. had the most success, repeatedly achieving 20-yard-or-so gains and averaged 7.7 ypc 108 yards longest run was 38 yards. I chalk that up to concern over NC State's pass attack, NC State's offensive line, and playing away from home. It's concerning that Virginia has yet to win on the road.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Another concern is Bryce Perkins: five INT's in his past two games (NC State and Duke). Opposing defenses are cuing in on the freshman's running prowess. He's throwing picks (bad ball placement, trying to do too much/poor decision-making) when he's not as able to run. NC State generated a lot of havoc despite the losses incurred in the offseason as did Miami with its great pass rush and very athletic and speedy front 7, although both Perkins and running back Jordan Ellis were much more effective against Miami because the o-line was healthier than it was against NC State.

Baylor's QB ran plenty against Duke's D, last year UNC's ran for 77 yards. Duke's D seems to be vulnerable to the opposing QB run and I think Perkins can do at least as well running-wise against Duke's D as against Miami's D and it's a nice tool, though he should be more successful against Duke's less experienced secondary that's hampered by the injury of Mark Gilbert

 

[rambler882]

I am close to betting uva plus the points. Read this as a defensive game where points will be a premium. Getting a TD is a few points higher than expected.

Originally was looking to tease Duke down but after reviewing like the uva side.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

I mean the only reason why Duke was close to UVA last year (28-21 uva home win) was a pick six and kick return almost taken for a touchdown

 

[s--k]

First major question: Why does Daniel Jones have such poor career numbers against Bronco Mendenhall-led Virginia?

Duke offense was in a bad funk midseason last year. Jones was banged up after that Miami game, he wasn't sharp, receivers dropped passes, lots of drops, they lacked rhythm and confidence. As you point out the Virginia game was really bad, but there were other bad games last year. As for why he had such a terrible game in 2016 and if there is something specific to UVA's D I do not know. Bronco isn't telling. "He's makes really good decisions, except in our games".

I think Jones is good, but I think he is at his best when he is a threat to run as well and I wonder if he is hesitant to do so with the recent injury.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

A lot of questions up for grabs:

Still haven‘t answered why DJ is bad vs UVA. Is it cause of Mendenhall‘s defensive philosophy? Cause he was in the midst of a slump wherein Duke lost six in a row? Can‘t fault him for a bad performance two years ago. While UVA‘s back seven shows overwhelming continuity. The d-line shows regression, but so does Duke‘s o-line, whereas the rest shows great continuity. So the question of UVA‘s pass rush seems hard to answer. Plus the question of UVA‘s ability to be consistent, which Mendenhall raised the question about after NC State.

To take a step back. UVA: Coming off a big win at home. Winless on the road, but only two road games (NC State and Indy). UVA has had DJ‘s number.

Those are the broader truths. But its difficult to find a logical basis for them in a sense that has predictive value. Would like to substantiate our broader truths with some details to create a reasoned feeling of certainty for one side or the other.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

I mean, UVA had a seven point win that was really a bigger win cause pick six and special teams made it close. So something needs to be different for Duke. That answer is very easy: Daniel Jones. Also, Perkins could very well throw a pick six. The answer to this game seems to be in both quarterbacks, which for me entails questions above all about UVA‘s pass rush

 

[VirginiaCavs]

I wonder if its interesting that in each of Mendenhall‘s two years, the defense began having a meltdown right around this time. Whereas UVA faced Duke earlier in the year

 

[s--k]

Those are the broader truths. But its difficult to find a logical basis for them in a sense that has predictive value. Would like to substantiate our broader truths with some details to create a reasoned feeling of certainty for one side or the other.

I don't know but you sound like some professor or something!

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Turnover battle would have to favor Duke with Perkis‘ proneness to INT‘s. Granted DJ‘s bizzarely bad history vs Bronco

 

[VirginiaCavs]

An interesting match ups

Duke‘s small, backup corners vs UVA‘s well-sized receivers. They offer bigger targets for Perkins

DJ def a big upgrade over Miami‘s qb‘s but Duke is run-first

 

[VirginiaCavs]

So realistic i think we get one big Duke run that leads to a touchdown. A passing touchdown from DJ

Duke is overreliant on its linebackers to stop the run I think Ellis can power his way to good gains when Duke‘s secondary is needed for run support. Between him and Perkins its a lot for Duke‘s front seven to handle given UVA‘s improving health on the o-line. But Duke also has some run-stuffing beef at DT and skillfulpass-rushing defensive ends to boot that have been superb against opposing running backs but have let some quarterbacks run free.

I dont think Perkins has the ability of VT‘s QB to take advantage of size mismatches at receiver

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Intangible: letdown going from rocking scott stadium on saturday night to dull duke in the afternoon

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Seems reasonable that either team‘s max is in the upper 20‘s. We‘d need a pick six or special teams to get that unlikely point total

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Duke‘s offense has produced far less than it seems able to on paper. Theres really nothing spectacular there. UVA needs to avoid turnovers but Perkins may be good for one.

So lets say a big rush gain, a turnover, and a DJ pass lead to 24 points for Duke. Can UVA get to 17? Duke‘s main weakness (corners) UVA can‘t expose too fully cause of Perkins‘ issues as a passer. But Duke‘s linebackers and rush seem to be much more effective historically against option attacks than scrambling quarterbacks. Defending the two are very very different. I think Perkins can make enough plays and if UVA can fool Duke‘s linebackers and force secondary support I think Ellis can get his share too.

I think 24-20 type score.

Variation if DJ throws a pick and Perkins doesn‘t. If Duke stalls in the red zone after a big run. Maybe something like 21-20 UVA win? What‘s most likely?

 

[VirginiaCavs]

This thread is the literal definition of forcing a pick lol. It's like trying to work out a logic problem from philosophy class for a week. Now where's the edge! No way much intellect needs to go into a winning pitck

 

[s--k]

I wasn't that impressed with what I saw out of Virginia last week. Miami's D can make the going tough so I don't want to put too much into that. On this one I agree, the letdown could be a factor. My lean is UVA + I just have no conviction in it.

You go deep in trying to figure things out. It's good though.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Going with a 24-16 Duke win

 

[RetroVK]

Eye Test says duke is 4 or 6 points better than UVA but the overall results so far don't really warrant that ... so call it duke -2 neutral and -5 at home. I think Duke is the team more likely to flip the field with a big play or score on a big play and I think Duke is more equipped to come from behind if down early.

But agree with the overall premise that points will be at a premium in this game and UVA will be fighting until the very end. Special year potential for both these otufits and this should be a good game. Whichever team rushes for less probably loses and whichever team has the most pass attempts probably loses. I took UVA ....