Virginia vs.Clemson: NCAAF Week 5 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Clemson Tigers,
Saturday, October 3, 2020 at 8 p.m. ET at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, South Carolina
Last Meeting
These two teams clashed in the ACC Championship last December. Clemson easily covered the 29-point spread, winning 62-17, and sent the game „over“ the posted total of 57 points by itself.
For this upcoming meeting, NCAAF oddsmakers opened with a very similar spread and total.
So the main question I want to ask is: did nothing change from last December? Did Virginia not improve or Clemson not regress?
In order to begin to answer this question, we have to establish what the circumstances in December were.
Virginia’s secondary was absolutely decimated by injury.
This had been a strong pass defense by any measure. But towards season’s end, opposing quarterbacks were regularly accumulating over 300 passing yards. Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence was no exception.
These quarterbacks were successful because they were contending with defensive backs who weren’t prepared to play.
Beyond guys like former ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year Brenton Nelson, other key defenders were injured like linebacker Jordan Mack, who earned All-ACC honors.
So Clemson was connecting on big plays not only in the passing game downfield, but also on the ground.
Downfield, the Tigers relied especially on the departed Tee Higgins, who led all receivers with nearly 200 yards.
On the ground, they featured four starting offensive linemen who have departed. Besides from the one returning starter, the Tiger o-line entered this season with two returning starts.
So from a personnel standpoint, things are different for Clemson’s offense and Virginia’s defense. There’s no justification for pointing to last year’s game in order to suggest that Clemson will, again, accrue 62 points.
My argument is going to be: that this year's Virginia is stronger on defense while Clemson’s defense has reloaded.
17 Points
Last year, Virginia mustered 17 points against Clemson. One advantage that Virginia’s offense had going into that game was at quarterback. UVA featured dual-threat Bryce Perkins, who was concluding his second year in that offense.
With Perkins gone, Brennan Armstrong is starting. After seeing what Boston College’s transfer quarterback did to Duke’s secondary, I had high hopes for Armstrong.
Armstrong hadn’t proven himself as a passer against any team not named Liberty or William & Mary. And, after completing 24 of 45 passes, he still hasn’t proven himself. Game film exhibits his issues with accuracy.
Now, Armstrong won’t be a disaster. He can run some (although not like Perkins). He clearly commands the offense. He’s not going to get blown away by Clemson’s defense. But he’s not going to be sustaining scoring drives, either.
With two of Virginia’s three best receivers from last year gone and with Armstrong struggling as a passer, the Tiger secondary doesn’t have to be better than last year’s.
In its secondary, Clemson is so stacked with returning talent that it could be better this year.
Derion Kendrick is one key figure after he started at the cornerback position for the first time last year. Despite that inexperience, he was an All-ACC second-teamer.
Andrew Booth is a mega talent who was a five-star prospect and the third-ranked cornerback in his class.
Then there are more Tiger players adding to the experience that they accrued last season — Mario Goodrich played 205 snaps, Sheridan Jones 140, and so on.
Jones and Booth both started in the Tigers’ last game against Wake. Opposing starting quarterback Sam Hartman managed 151 passing yards on 11 of 21 passing attempts.
Since 2013-2014, Clemson’s pass defense hasn’t finished worse than 18th nationally in opposing passer rating thanks to high-level player talent.
UVA Ground Game vs. Clemson Run Defense
Virginia’s ground game is said to be improved this year. Essentially, this is trivially true given how shaky its offensive line was last year. The source of UVA’s improvement should be its returning ability and chemistry at offensive line.
For this match-up, this last point is irrelevant because Clemson itself returns all four starters on its defensive line plus highest-level (based on national recruiting rankings) reinforcements. Last year, the Tiger run defense ranked 16th nationally.
Virginia Defense vs. Clemson Offense
While Clemson loses its top receiver, Virginia brings back six defensive backs who have played a lot of snaps largely due to the number of injuries that inflicted its secondary last year.
Two, Nick Grant and 2018 starter Darrius Bratton, were good enough to start alongside All-American Bryce Hall.
Even when Hall was healthy, and especially because Bratton suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason, opposing quarterbacks tried to pick on the likes of Grant.
But Grant helped Virginia’s pass defense rank highly in the earlier parts of the season as UVA regularly limited opposing quarterbacks like Duke’s and Louisville’s to under 150 passing yards.
UVA started giving up tons of points and passing yards after Brenton Nelson went down.
During the offseason, the entire Hoos' secondary has focused on preventing the sort of big passing plays that Clemson emphasized last year.
So, in addition to being healthy now, returning experience is crucial for the Cavaliers’ pass defense.
Virginia’s linebackers are also worth mentioning especially as Clemson’s pass attack is more tight end-involved this year.
Charles Snowden, who’s been named to multiple award watch lists after finishing All-ACC last year, and Noah Taylor, are versatile, practically positionless coverage guys who will help control the middle of the field.
These linebackers including Zane Zandier were moreover crucial to limiting Duke’s rush attack to 56 yards on 1.5 carries last week.
The Verdict
Clemson's stacked defense will suffocate Virginia’s offense with its regressed pass attack.
Defensively, UVA can hold its own with its more experienced secondary recreating last season’s early successes. It will even improve beyond those after growing more secure against the deep ball where Clemson without Higgins is anyhow weaker.
Best Bet: Under 55 (-105) with Bookmaker
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Clemson Tigers,
Saturday, October 3, 2020 at 8 p.m. ET at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, South Carolina
Last Meeting
These two teams clashed in the ACC Championship last December. Clemson easily covered the 29-point spread, winning 62-17, and sent the game „over“ the posted total of 57 points by itself.
For this upcoming meeting, NCAAF oddsmakers opened with a very similar spread and total.
So the main question I want to ask is: did nothing change from last December? Did Virginia not improve or Clemson not regress?
In order to begin to answer this question, we have to establish what the circumstances in December were.
Virginia’s secondary was absolutely decimated by injury.
This had been a strong pass defense by any measure. But towards season’s end, opposing quarterbacks were regularly accumulating over 300 passing yards. Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence was no exception.
These quarterbacks were successful because they were contending with defensive backs who weren’t prepared to play.
Beyond guys like former ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year Brenton Nelson, other key defenders were injured like linebacker Jordan Mack, who earned All-ACC honors.
So Clemson was connecting on big plays not only in the passing game downfield, but also on the ground.
Downfield, the Tigers relied especially on the departed Tee Higgins, who led all receivers with nearly 200 yards.
On the ground, they featured four starting offensive linemen who have departed. Besides from the one returning starter, the Tiger o-line entered this season with two returning starts.
So from a personnel standpoint, things are different for Clemson’s offense and Virginia’s defense. There’s no justification for pointing to last year’s game in order to suggest that Clemson will, again, accrue 62 points.
My argument is going to be: that this year's Virginia is stronger on defense while Clemson’s defense has reloaded.
17 Points
Last year, Virginia mustered 17 points against Clemson. One advantage that Virginia’s offense had going into that game was at quarterback. UVA featured dual-threat Bryce Perkins, who was concluding his second year in that offense.
With Perkins gone, Brennan Armstrong is starting. After seeing what Boston College’s transfer quarterback did to Duke’s secondary, I had high hopes for Armstrong.
Armstrong hadn’t proven himself as a passer against any team not named Liberty or William & Mary. And, after completing 24 of 45 passes, he still hasn’t proven himself. Game film exhibits his issues with accuracy.
Now, Armstrong won’t be a disaster. He can run some (although not like Perkins). He clearly commands the offense. He’s not going to get blown away by Clemson’s defense. But he’s not going to be sustaining scoring drives, either.
With two of Virginia’s three best receivers from last year gone and with Armstrong struggling as a passer, the Tiger secondary doesn’t have to be better than last year’s.
In its secondary, Clemson is so stacked with returning talent that it could be better this year.
Derion Kendrick is one key figure after he started at the cornerback position for the first time last year. Despite that inexperience, he was an All-ACC second-teamer.
Andrew Booth is a mega talent who was a five-star prospect and the third-ranked cornerback in his class.
Then there are more Tiger players adding to the experience that they accrued last season — Mario Goodrich played 205 snaps, Sheridan Jones 140, and so on.
Jones and Booth both started in the Tigers’ last game against Wake. Opposing starting quarterback Sam Hartman managed 151 passing yards on 11 of 21 passing attempts.
Since 2013-2014, Clemson’s pass defense hasn’t finished worse than 18th nationally in opposing passer rating thanks to high-level player talent.
UVA Ground Game vs. Clemson Run Defense
Virginia’s ground game is said to be improved this year. Essentially, this is trivially true given how shaky its offensive line was last year. The source of UVA’s improvement should be its returning ability and chemistry at offensive line.
For this match-up, this last point is irrelevant because Clemson itself returns all four starters on its defensive line plus highest-level (based on national recruiting rankings) reinforcements. Last year, the Tiger run defense ranked 16th nationally.
Virginia Defense vs. Clemson Offense
While Clemson loses its top receiver, Virginia brings back six defensive backs who have played a lot of snaps largely due to the number of injuries that inflicted its secondary last year.
Two, Nick Grant and 2018 starter Darrius Bratton, were good enough to start alongside All-American Bryce Hall.
Even when Hall was healthy, and especially because Bratton suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason, opposing quarterbacks tried to pick on the likes of Grant.
But Grant helped Virginia’s pass defense rank highly in the earlier parts of the season as UVA regularly limited opposing quarterbacks like Duke’s and Louisville’s to under 150 passing yards.
UVA started giving up tons of points and passing yards after Brenton Nelson went down.
During the offseason, the entire Hoos' secondary has focused on preventing the sort of big passing plays that Clemson emphasized last year.
So, in addition to being healthy now, returning experience is crucial for the Cavaliers’ pass defense.
Virginia’s linebackers are also worth mentioning especially as Clemson’s pass attack is more tight end-involved this year.
Charles Snowden, who’s been named to multiple award watch lists after finishing All-ACC last year, and Noah Taylor, are versatile, practically positionless coverage guys who will help control the middle of the field.
These linebackers including Zane Zandier were moreover crucial to limiting Duke’s rush attack to 56 yards on 1.5 carries last week.
The Verdict
Clemson's stacked defense will suffocate Virginia’s offense with its regressed pass attack.
Defensively, UVA can hold its own with its more experienced secondary recreating last season’s early successes. It will even improve beyond those after growing more secure against the deep ball where Clemson without Higgins is anyhow weaker.
Best Bet: Under 55 (-105) with Bookmaker
