State's staff is a skeleton crew, and they're being coached by a guy who is joining Mullen at UF. Fitzgerald is out, and his back up looked far from ready against Ole Miss. Now, he's had a month to prepare, but the guy looked completely lost. How much better could he have gotten? State's D is salty against the run, but their secondary can be had. Can UL stop the read option? If so, then I think UL rolls.
Edited: I should add that the motivational angles seem to favor UL here too. State lost their QB and their HC within a week. UL's DC came from State, and you would think that his knowledge of their personnel in addition to his desire to prove something would favor UL. This might also be Lamar's last ride.