Vikings vs. Rams Thursday Night Football Picks: Minnesota Is In A Tough Spot
Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Rams
Thursday, October 24, 2024 at 8:15 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood
Key Trend
Minnesota is in a bad spot on Thursday because its last game was against Detroit.
So far this season, Lions opponents are 0-4 ATS and 0-4 SU in their following game.
It is certain that this trend is not coincidental, because the four games were decided by clear margins.
First, the Rams lost by 31 at Arizona.
Secondly, Tampa Bay lost by 19 at home to Denver.
Then, Arizona lost by 28 points at home to Washington.
Subsequently, Seattle lost by nine points at home to the Giants.
This trend exists because Dan Campbell, Detroit's head coach, is fulfilling his vision for a physical football team. He has the personnel to realize that vision, and his worn down and beat-up opponents are paying the price for it.
Learning From A Mastermind
The teams facing Detroit's most recent opponent also benefit from learning what the Lions' highly intelligent offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson, had figured out about their opponent before playing it.
Los Angeles' coaching staff is going to watch a replay of and learn a lot from Detroit's win over Minnesota.
Detroit's offensive coordinator exposed Minnesota's defense while enabling his offense to put up 30 points on a unit that had ranked fourth in scoring defense.
What Detroit's Offensive Coordinator Figured Out
Brian Flores' Vikings defense wants to pressure the quarterback before he can decipher the defense's coverage.
The idea is that by the time the quarterback figures out where to go with the ball, he'll be sacked.
What Ben Johnson figured out was which spots his quarterback Jared Goff should look to attack.
Passing charts show that his quarterback focused on passing in the middle of the field.
Largely by doing this, Goff achieved a 140 passer rating on a Vikings defense that, before Sunday, had allowed an average 70.3 passer rating.
Attacking The Middle of the Field
Relative to the rest of the NFL, Stafford has already exhibited a vastly stronger tendency to throw over the middle of the field.
This tendency is evident in his ratio of passes and passing yards that have come in this space.
Given this tendency, Stafford is an ideal candidate to replicate Goff's success against Minnesota's defense.
Dealing With Minnesota's Pressure
Of course, it will also be helpful to be able to handle the Vikings' pressure.
Minnesota likes to blitz more than any other team. Its defense is uniquely aggressive.
Fortunately for the Rams, Stafford has developed a reputation for his prowess under pressure.
Over the years, he has achieved uniquely high passer ratings under pressure.
This responds to a point that Minnesota backers will want to make, which is that the Rams' offensive line has dealt with injuries and that therefore it should be susceptible to Flores' aggressive tendencies.
Such a point is invalid, however, because Stafford is able to get the ball out fast.
In Week 1, for example Stafford faced a Lions pass rush that was spearheaded by elite pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson and that, even after his injury, still owns one of the NFL's better pass-rushing units.
Stafford showed his ability to release the ball quickly. In quick succession, repeatedly he dropped back and found a target in order to sustain drives.
His TT (time to throw) average was merely higher in the second half to the extent that he tried to throw more deep balls.
Technical breakdowns of the Rams' offense point to their reliance on pistol formations and to the way in which they use these formations to make it harder on defenses to succeed with their blitzes.
Overall, in that game, he was successful in the face of a strong pass rush.
The strength of Minnesota's pass rush should, therefore, not motivate confidence in the Vikings' defense, given Stafford's ability to release the ball quickly and his preexisting disposition to attack the middle of the field.
The Return of Cooper Kupp
It is not a coincidence that Stafford, in the aforementioned game, achieved by far his highest passing yardage total of the season.
His favorite wide receiver Cooper Kupp was healthy.
Kupp is an elite pass-catcher in large part because he quickly gets separation from opposing defensive backs.
Reportedly, he is expected to be available for Thursday's game — he was already practicing last week and was listed as 'questionable' for Sunday's game for which he was ultimately ruled out.
On Thursday, expect him to find and make himself available in the spots that Stafford will want to target in order to sustain drives.
Los Angeles already boasts wide receivers who are good at gaining separation, but its offense is at its very best when Kupp, who is a game-changer, plays.
Rams' Pressure
PFF's stats indicate Minnesota's pass-blocking is weak.
The Vikings will be particularly susceptible to the Rams' pass rush.
Los Angeles gets a lot of pressure. Jared Verse, for example, achieved nine pressures last week, which is as many pressures as any rookie has achieved in a single game this season.
Thanks to the Rams' pass rushers, Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold will frequently be uncomfortable.
A major asset of Darnold's success has been his efficiency on deep passes.
But deep passes take time to complete because wide receivers need more time to go downfield. They won't get this time thanks to the likes of Verse.
Moreover, when under pressure, Darnold's completion percentage is very low. He has been vastly more efficient with a clean pocket, so the ability of Los Angeles to pressure him will restrict his output to a significant extent.
Takeaway
Thanks to Stafford, Minnesota is going to need to pass a lot to stay in this game.
But Los Angeles' pass rush will make passing difficult for the Vikings.
In this game, the Rams will put pressure on Minnesota's offense to keep up with their scoring success, but the Vikings' pass protection will struggle too much.
Best Bet: Rams +3 at -103 with BetOnline
Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Rams
Thursday, October 24, 2024 at 8:15 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood
Key Trend
Minnesota is in a bad spot on Thursday because its last game was against Detroit.
So far this season, Lions opponents are 0-4 ATS and 0-4 SU in their following game.
It is certain that this trend is not coincidental, because the four games were decided by clear margins.
First, the Rams lost by 31 at Arizona.
Secondly, Tampa Bay lost by 19 at home to Denver.
Then, Arizona lost by 28 points at home to Washington.
Subsequently, Seattle lost by nine points at home to the Giants.
This trend exists because Dan Campbell, Detroit's head coach, is fulfilling his vision for a physical football team. He has the personnel to realize that vision, and his worn down and beat-up opponents are paying the price for it.
Learning From A Mastermind
The teams facing Detroit's most recent opponent also benefit from learning what the Lions' highly intelligent offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson, had figured out about their opponent before playing it.
Los Angeles' coaching staff is going to watch a replay of and learn a lot from Detroit's win over Minnesota.
Detroit's offensive coordinator exposed Minnesota's defense while enabling his offense to put up 30 points on a unit that had ranked fourth in scoring defense.
What Detroit's Offensive Coordinator Figured Out
Brian Flores' Vikings defense wants to pressure the quarterback before he can decipher the defense's coverage.
The idea is that by the time the quarterback figures out where to go with the ball, he'll be sacked.
What Ben Johnson figured out was which spots his quarterback Jared Goff should look to attack.
Passing charts show that his quarterback focused on passing in the middle of the field.
Largely by doing this, Goff achieved a 140 passer rating on a Vikings defense that, before Sunday, had allowed an average 70.3 passer rating.
Attacking The Middle of the Field
Relative to the rest of the NFL, Stafford has already exhibited a vastly stronger tendency to throw over the middle of the field.
This tendency is evident in his ratio of passes and passing yards that have come in this space.
Given this tendency, Stafford is an ideal candidate to replicate Goff's success against Minnesota's defense.
Dealing With Minnesota's Pressure
Of course, it will also be helpful to be able to handle the Vikings' pressure.
Minnesota likes to blitz more than any other team. Its defense is uniquely aggressive.
Fortunately for the Rams, Stafford has developed a reputation for his prowess under pressure.
Over the years, he has achieved uniquely high passer ratings under pressure.
This responds to a point that Minnesota backers will want to make, which is that the Rams' offensive line has dealt with injuries and that therefore it should be susceptible to Flores' aggressive tendencies.
Such a point is invalid, however, because Stafford is able to get the ball out fast.
In Week 1, for example Stafford faced a Lions pass rush that was spearheaded by elite pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson and that, even after his injury, still owns one of the NFL's better pass-rushing units.
Stafford showed his ability to release the ball quickly. In quick succession, repeatedly he dropped back and found a target in order to sustain drives.
His TT (time to throw) average was merely higher in the second half to the extent that he tried to throw more deep balls.
Technical breakdowns of the Rams' offense point to their reliance on pistol formations and to the way in which they use these formations to make it harder on defenses to succeed with their blitzes.
Overall, in that game, he was successful in the face of a strong pass rush.
The strength of Minnesota's pass rush should, therefore, not motivate confidence in the Vikings' defense, given Stafford's ability to release the ball quickly and his preexisting disposition to attack the middle of the field.
The Return of Cooper Kupp
It is not a coincidence that Stafford, in the aforementioned game, achieved by far his highest passing yardage total of the season.
His favorite wide receiver Cooper Kupp was healthy.
Kupp is an elite pass-catcher in large part because he quickly gets separation from opposing defensive backs.
Reportedly, he is expected to be available for Thursday's game — he was already practicing last week and was listed as 'questionable' for Sunday's game for which he was ultimately ruled out.
On Thursday, expect him to find and make himself available in the spots that Stafford will want to target in order to sustain drives.
Los Angeles already boasts wide receivers who are good at gaining separation, but its offense is at its very best when Kupp, who is a game-changer, plays.
Rams' Pressure
PFF's stats indicate Minnesota's pass-blocking is weak.
The Vikings will be particularly susceptible to the Rams' pass rush.
Los Angeles gets a lot of pressure. Jared Verse, for example, achieved nine pressures last week, which is as many pressures as any rookie has achieved in a single game this season.
Thanks to the Rams' pass rushers, Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold will frequently be uncomfortable.
A major asset of Darnold's success has been his efficiency on deep passes.
But deep passes take time to complete because wide receivers need more time to go downfield. They won't get this time thanks to the likes of Verse.
Moreover, when under pressure, Darnold's completion percentage is very low. He has been vastly more efficient with a clean pocket, so the ability of Los Angeles to pressure him will restrict his output to a significant extent.
Takeaway
Thanks to Stafford, Minnesota is going to need to pass a lot to stay in this game.
But Los Angeles' pass rush will make passing difficult for the Vikings.
In this game, the Rams will put pressure on Minnesota's offense to keep up with their scoring success, but the Vikings' pass protection will struggle too much.
Best Bet: Rams +3 at -103 with BetOnline
