Vikings vs. Lions Sunday Night Football Picks: Minnesota Will Sail to Victory
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, January 5, 2025 at 8:20 p.m. ET at Ford Field
Key Trend
Minnesota has the fourth-best scoring defense in part because it has an elite defensive coordinator in Brian Flores.
Flores' intelligence is evident in his ability to prepare his defense for rematches.
His ability to handle rematches is relevant for this game against Detroit because it is a rematch of a Week 7 game that Minnesota lost at home by a score of 31-29.
So far, Flores has seen Green Bay and Chicago again.
Against Green Bay in Week 17, Minnesota held quarterback Jordan Love to 204 fewer passing yards than he attained in their first meeting.
When the Vikings played against Chicago's Caleb Williams a second time, they limited him to 191 passing yards after he threw for 340 yards in their first meeting.
One must reason that Detroit quarterback Jared Goff will suffer a strong decline in productivity in Week 18 relative to his first game against Minnesota in which he threw for 280 yards.
Minnesota's Zone Coverage
We know that Flores has a great mind also because he understands which coverages to employ against which opponents.
He is not afraid to call for a lot of man coverage, as we saw in Week 13 in Minnesota's win over Arizona.
But throughout the season his Vikings have been one of the most zone-heavy teams.
Their characteristic reliance on zone coverage creates a strong outlook for their pass defense.
Whereas Goff thrives against man coverage, he struggles against zone.
He has ranked toward the very top in both completion percentage and passer rating against man coverage but toward the very bottom in both completion percentage and passer rating against zone coverage.
Minnesota's Run Defense
Goff will have a bad game on Sunday, but he also won't be able to count on his rush attack for support.
Detroit's offense likes to rely on the running back duo Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.
But one member of that duo, Montgomery, won't be available in Week 18. Detroit will miss his physicality and his nose for the end zone — he has twelve rushing touchdowns so far, having achieved at least one in almost every game he played.
The Lions' weakened running back room will now face one of the best run defenses. Minnesota's run defense ranks second.
Detroit's Injury-Ravaged Defense
Against both the run and the pass, the Lions have declined defensively.
They are ravaged with injuries.
They miss their top pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson, their captain Alex Anzalone, their top cornerback in man coverage Carlton Davis, and several others along the defensive line, in their linebacker group, and in their secondary.
We can measure their defensive decline using a variety of specific statistics, such as opposing rushing yards per game, opposing yards per carry, and opposing passing yards per game.
Outlook for Sam Darnold
It is especially Detroit's pass defense that will struggle in this game.
Currently, the Lions rank 31st in pass defense.
They just faced a quarterback in San Francisco's Brock Purdy who amassed 377 passing yards. His passer rating against Detroit was 19.9 points higher than his season average.
For Minnesota, Sam Darnold is enjoying more than a rebirth of his career. He has been one of the best quarterbacks this season: he ranks fourth in passing yards and fifth in passer rating.
Darnold has been very efficient both under pressure and in a clean pocket.
He exhibits a great deep ball and is regularly productive with his throws, as evident in his impressively high YPA average.
His outlook is especially solid against a Detroit defense that, in its coverage choices, is uniquely man-heavy.
Whereas his completion percentage is 13th-best against zone, it is fourth-best against man coverage.
Similarly, his passer rating is seventh-best versus zone but second-best against man.
Takeaway
One team will play good defense in this game. That team will be Minnesota.
The Vikings have a great defensive coordinator who will have his group well-prepared for this rematch against a quarterback that they match up well against and against a weakened running back room.
Detroit's severely thinned defense, which in recent weeks has conceded 48 points at home to Buffalo and 34 points in San Francisco, will fail to contain Minnesota's Darnold-led offense.
Best Bet: Vikings +2.5 at -102 with BetOnline
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, January 5, 2025 at 8:20 p.m. ET at Ford Field
Key Trend
Minnesota has the fourth-best scoring defense in part because it has an elite defensive coordinator in Brian Flores.
Flores' intelligence is evident in his ability to prepare his defense for rematches.
His ability to handle rematches is relevant for this game against Detroit because it is a rematch of a Week 7 game that Minnesota lost at home by a score of 31-29.
So far, Flores has seen Green Bay and Chicago again.
Against Green Bay in Week 17, Minnesota held quarterback Jordan Love to 204 fewer passing yards than he attained in their first meeting.
When the Vikings played against Chicago's Caleb Williams a second time, they limited him to 191 passing yards after he threw for 340 yards in their first meeting.
One must reason that Detroit quarterback Jared Goff will suffer a strong decline in productivity in Week 18 relative to his first game against Minnesota in which he threw for 280 yards.
Minnesota's Zone Coverage
We know that Flores has a great mind also because he understands which coverages to employ against which opponents.
He is not afraid to call for a lot of man coverage, as we saw in Week 13 in Minnesota's win over Arizona.
But throughout the season his Vikings have been one of the most zone-heavy teams.
Their characteristic reliance on zone coverage creates a strong outlook for their pass defense.
Whereas Goff thrives against man coverage, he struggles against zone.
He has ranked toward the very top in both completion percentage and passer rating against man coverage but toward the very bottom in both completion percentage and passer rating against zone coverage.
Minnesota's Run Defense
Goff will have a bad game on Sunday, but he also won't be able to count on his rush attack for support.
Detroit's offense likes to rely on the running back duo Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.
But one member of that duo, Montgomery, won't be available in Week 18. Detroit will miss his physicality and his nose for the end zone — he has twelve rushing touchdowns so far, having achieved at least one in almost every game he played.
The Lions' weakened running back room will now face one of the best run defenses. Minnesota's run defense ranks second.
Detroit's Injury-Ravaged Defense
Against both the run and the pass, the Lions have declined defensively.
They are ravaged with injuries.
They miss their top pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson, their captain Alex Anzalone, their top cornerback in man coverage Carlton Davis, and several others along the defensive line, in their linebacker group, and in their secondary.
We can measure their defensive decline using a variety of specific statistics, such as opposing rushing yards per game, opposing yards per carry, and opposing passing yards per game.
Outlook for Sam Darnold
It is especially Detroit's pass defense that will struggle in this game.
Currently, the Lions rank 31st in pass defense.
They just faced a quarterback in San Francisco's Brock Purdy who amassed 377 passing yards. His passer rating against Detroit was 19.9 points higher than his season average.
For Minnesota, Sam Darnold is enjoying more than a rebirth of his career. He has been one of the best quarterbacks this season: he ranks fourth in passing yards and fifth in passer rating.
Darnold has been very efficient both under pressure and in a clean pocket.
He exhibits a great deep ball and is regularly productive with his throws, as evident in his impressively high YPA average.
His outlook is especially solid against a Detroit defense that, in its coverage choices, is uniquely man-heavy.
Whereas his completion percentage is 13th-best against zone, it is fourth-best against man coverage.
Similarly, his passer rating is seventh-best versus zone but second-best against man.
Takeaway
One team will play good defense in this game. That team will be Minnesota.
The Vikings have a great defensive coordinator who will have his group well-prepared for this rematch against a quarterback that they match up well against and against a weakened running back room.
Detroit's severely thinned defense, which in recent weeks has conceded 48 points at home to Buffalo and 34 points in San Francisco, will fail to contain Minnesota's Darnold-led offense.
Best Bet: Vikings +2.5 at -102 with BetOnline
