Vikings vs Chiefs: Week 9 NFL Picks & Game Predictions
Minnesota vs Kansas City
Sunday, November 3 at 1 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium
Odds, Trends, And Injuries
Oddsmakers opened Minnesota as -3.5 point favorites in Kansas City. When they conceived this line, the expectation was that KC’s superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes would not play. However, some of the certainty has evaporated.
Experts seem split with some saying that he has a legitimate chance to play against Minnesota and others saying that the following week against Tennessee is a much more realistic option. This week, Mahomes practiced as the no. 2 quarterback.
Given the original timetable — 2-3 weeks was described as the absolute best case scenario for him to sufficiently recover from his dislocated kneecap — and perhaps given how competent backup quarterback Matt Moore looked against Green Bay — I speculate (emphasis on speculate!) that Mahomes will return against Tennessee.
A few trends speak in Minnesota’s favor. Minnesota is on a 3-1 ATS run since Kirk Cousins apologized for his poor performance. The one non-cover came in a ho-hum win against Washington that the Vikings were always in control of.
Moreover, Minnesota is on a 9-1 ATS run in early afternoon games while the Chiefs are enduring an 0-4 ATS run in November home games.
What Should We Make Of Matt Moore?
In his start last Sunday in place of Mahomes, Matt Moore put up a stellar stat line, going 24-for-36 for 267 yards and two touchdowns.
A lot of Moore’s success had to do with Green Bay’s defensive quality. The Packers generally refused to apply pressure, often sat back in coverage, not wanting to surrender the big play, and otherwise refused to be physical with Chief receivers at the line of scrimmage.
Also, Moore benefitted from some highly intelligent play-calling from Andy Reid, who could scheme wide receivers open, thus giving Moore an easy task to master for a big pass play.
So Moore wasn’t actually stellar. But he was competent and took what Reid and Green Bay’s defense gave him, allowing him to make ample use of his sundry playmakers at wide receiver and tight end.
How Big A Difference Would Mahomes Make?
Mahomes, obviously, is better than Moore and the line would reflect that if he were to play. But, if Mahomes is rushed back and plays on Sunday, then I am highly skeptical that we would see Mahomes in peak form.
What peak Mahomes is, is a mobile quarterback who makes incredible highlight-reel plays when things break down around him. But — and we’ve seen this before, like in KC’s loss against Indianapolis — a less than mobile Mahomes is relatively vulnerable.
Pass rushers are important to help contain Mahomes and, alternatively, to apply pressure on Moore. The Vikings rank 10th in adjusted sack rate. In particular, watch out for their edge rushers: Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen have combined for 12.5 sacks thus far.
Overall, Minnesota has one of the best pass defenses, ranking 12th in pass defense DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average).
I’ll be interested to see whether Xavier Rhodes can step up. He’s been targeted more this year and has been poor relative to his usual self. Rhodes likes to use his physicality and I imagine that he’ll show much more physicality especially at the line of scrimmage than Green Bay’s cornerbacks did.
At all events, Minnesota has one of the NFL's better defenses, ranking sixth in defensive DVOA, so it just needs to get a few stops for its offense.
Minnesota, Not Kansas City, Will Have The Better Offense On Sunday
Kansas City has grown famous for its offensive prowess and that’s fair enough. But the Vikings deserve enormous praise for the strides that they’ve made relative to last year.
This year, Minnesota’s offense ranks fifth in DVOA. Dalvin Cook is the NFL’s leading rusher and Stefon Diggs is the fourth-leading wide receiver. Kirk Cousins owns the second-best passer rating.
Under new Offensive Coordinator Kevin Stefanski, Minnesota balances extreme explosiveness — it ranks first in number of 20+-yard throws and first in number of 10+-yard runs — and solid efficiency, a mix of great play-calling and great play design.
One feature of Stefanski’s offense is deception. He’s adept at fooling defenses by making one play look like another. Of course, every offense tries to do this. But Stefanski’s creativity adds a new dimension. Check out this example:
https://twitter.com/NFLFilms/status/1182750140366491649?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1182750140366491649&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fzonecoverage.com%2F2019%2Fvikings%2Fwhy-kevin-stefanski-might-be-the-nfls-next-great-offensive-coach%2F
Stefanski also puts his players in better positions to succeed. He utilizes Cousins’ superb fake hand-off, he has Cooks running more outside zones, and he has Diggs running more deep routes.
As a result, both Diggs and Cooks are enjoying career-best years with the former averaging 19.1 YPR — more than five yards better than his previous season-best — and with Cook averaging 5.3 YPC — .5 yards more than his previous best.
Minnesota runs more play-action than any other team. So Cooks’ success is pivotal. He will thrive against a Kansas City run defense that ranks third-to-last and Cook’s success will encourage Cousins and Diggs to thrive as well.
Conclusion
Whether Mahomes or Moore is in, take Minnesota ATS. The Vikings actually play some defense and enjoy one of the league’s most prolific offense. I don’t like the „over“ because Minnesota can kill a lot of clock with its ground game.
Best Bet: Vikings ATS (odds TBA)
Minnesota vs Kansas City
Sunday, November 3 at 1 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium
Odds, Trends, And Injuries
Oddsmakers opened Minnesota as -3.5 point favorites in Kansas City. When they conceived this line, the expectation was that KC’s superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes would not play. However, some of the certainty has evaporated.
Experts seem split with some saying that he has a legitimate chance to play against Minnesota and others saying that the following week against Tennessee is a much more realistic option. This week, Mahomes practiced as the no. 2 quarterback.
Given the original timetable — 2-3 weeks was described as the absolute best case scenario for him to sufficiently recover from his dislocated kneecap — and perhaps given how competent backup quarterback Matt Moore looked against Green Bay — I speculate (emphasis on speculate!) that Mahomes will return against Tennessee.
A few trends speak in Minnesota’s favor. Minnesota is on a 3-1 ATS run since Kirk Cousins apologized for his poor performance. The one non-cover came in a ho-hum win against Washington that the Vikings were always in control of.
Moreover, Minnesota is on a 9-1 ATS run in early afternoon games while the Chiefs are enduring an 0-4 ATS run in November home games.
What Should We Make Of Matt Moore?
In his start last Sunday in place of Mahomes, Matt Moore put up a stellar stat line, going 24-for-36 for 267 yards and two touchdowns.
A lot of Moore’s success had to do with Green Bay’s defensive quality. The Packers generally refused to apply pressure, often sat back in coverage, not wanting to surrender the big play, and otherwise refused to be physical with Chief receivers at the line of scrimmage.
Also, Moore benefitted from some highly intelligent play-calling from Andy Reid, who could scheme wide receivers open, thus giving Moore an easy task to master for a big pass play.
So Moore wasn’t actually stellar. But he was competent and took what Reid and Green Bay’s defense gave him, allowing him to make ample use of his sundry playmakers at wide receiver and tight end.
How Big A Difference Would Mahomes Make?
Mahomes, obviously, is better than Moore and the line would reflect that if he were to play. But, if Mahomes is rushed back and plays on Sunday, then I am highly skeptical that we would see Mahomes in peak form.
What peak Mahomes is, is a mobile quarterback who makes incredible highlight-reel plays when things break down around him. But — and we’ve seen this before, like in KC’s loss against Indianapolis — a less than mobile Mahomes is relatively vulnerable.
Pass rushers are important to help contain Mahomes and, alternatively, to apply pressure on Moore. The Vikings rank 10th in adjusted sack rate. In particular, watch out for their edge rushers: Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen have combined for 12.5 sacks thus far.
Overall, Minnesota has one of the best pass defenses, ranking 12th in pass defense DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average).
I’ll be interested to see whether Xavier Rhodes can step up. He’s been targeted more this year and has been poor relative to his usual self. Rhodes likes to use his physicality and I imagine that he’ll show much more physicality especially at the line of scrimmage than Green Bay’s cornerbacks did.
At all events, Minnesota has one of the NFL's better defenses, ranking sixth in defensive DVOA, so it just needs to get a few stops for its offense.
Minnesota, Not Kansas City, Will Have The Better Offense On Sunday
Kansas City has grown famous for its offensive prowess and that’s fair enough. But the Vikings deserve enormous praise for the strides that they’ve made relative to last year.
This year, Minnesota’s offense ranks fifth in DVOA. Dalvin Cook is the NFL’s leading rusher and Stefon Diggs is the fourth-leading wide receiver. Kirk Cousins owns the second-best passer rating.
Under new Offensive Coordinator Kevin Stefanski, Minnesota balances extreme explosiveness — it ranks first in number of 20+-yard throws and first in number of 10+-yard runs — and solid efficiency, a mix of great play-calling and great play design.
One feature of Stefanski’s offense is deception. He’s adept at fooling defenses by making one play look like another. Of course, every offense tries to do this. But Stefanski’s creativity adds a new dimension. Check out this example:
https://twitter.com/NFLFilms/status/1182750140366491649?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1182750140366491649&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fzonecoverage.com%2F2019%2Fvikings%2Fwhy-kevin-stefanski-might-be-the-nfls-next-great-offensive-coach%2F
Stefanski also puts his players in better positions to succeed. He utilizes Cousins’ superb fake hand-off, he has Cooks running more outside zones, and he has Diggs running more deep routes.
As a result, both Diggs and Cooks are enjoying career-best years with the former averaging 19.1 YPR — more than five yards better than his previous season-best — and with Cook averaging 5.3 YPC — .5 yards more than his previous best.
Minnesota runs more play-action than any other team. So Cooks’ success is pivotal. He will thrive against a Kansas City run defense that ranks third-to-last and Cook’s success will encourage Cousins and Diggs to thrive as well.
Conclusion
Whether Mahomes or Moore is in, take Minnesota ATS. The Vikings actually play some defense and enjoy one of the league’s most prolific offense. I don’t like the „over“ because Minnesota can kill a lot of clock with its ground game.
Best Bet: Vikings ATS (odds TBA)
lol
