tuck321
Not all those who wander are lost
Posts at The RX. Is currently 10-2 on his plays that mostly involved old Miss
- SECplayer
RX SeniorJoin Date Sep 2005 Location Mars Posts 2,104
11-02-2018, 05:09 PM
Week 10
One big bet this week (okay, two bets; one game).
South Carolina PK at Ole Miss. 10 units.
Ole Miss/South Carolina Over 68. 10 units.
As shown throughout this thread, Ole Miss offense differs dramatically based on opponents’ defense and coaching. They dominate inferior opponents in points and yards and then get suffocated when going up against the superior athletes of upper echelon SEC teams and their experienced coaching staffs. That’s why you see bizarre splits where Ta’amu can go for 500+ yards one game and sub 200 the next. So now Ole Miss is faced with an opponent that obviously doesn’t fall into the “superior opponent” category of LSU and Bama but well above the “inferior opponent” category that Ole Miss offense has dominated. I expect this to be similar to the Arkansas game (Ole Miss won a comeback 37-33 in a steady rain). But South Carolina is better than Arkansas and probably not on par with Auburn (at least athletically anyway).
While that has certainly been a theme this season, perhaps the biggest theme of this thread has been the Ole Miss defense. I have zero expectations for Ole Miss defense to improve. And it wouldn’t be hard to improve as they’re statistically the worst SEC defense by a landslide. South Carolina certainly doesn’t scare anyone in offensive explosiveness but they move the ball well enough and at times go at a pretty good pace (and average 32 points). They should be efficient and score plenty. On the other side of the ball, South Carolina’s defense is by most accounts average. However, despite being fairly average on defense they’ve been really good at stopping explosive long yardage touchdowns. That’s exactly what Ole Miss’s offense thrives upon. Ole Miss scores almost half of its touchdowns (47%) from 20+ yards out. But they’ve struggled with efficiency in drives where they don’t score from a long play and have to actually score from the red zone. We saw this a lot two weeks ago versus Auburn. But I do think Ole Miss rushing offense will fare better against South Carolina than they have against the defensive lines of Bama, LSU and Auburn. Ole Miss has a very underrated running back. So while I believe South Carolina does win outright, I do expect Ole Miss to get to 31+ points which is why I think the Over 68 hits as well.
