Vegas giving the PUBLIC a free play tomorrow at CIN - 5??

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ddk997

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IMO, I think Cincy destroys Philly tomorrow.

I think some value here for Cincy because Philly beat the Bucs but some things I should point out

CIN defense is underrated
Bucs have the worst passing defense in the league and are strong against the run, however they have played teams who don't usually run?
Philly won on a TD as time expired
Philly defense didn't look great nor did Tampa Bay offense
CIN blew a 9 point lead against the Cowboys, Cowboys play better on the road
CIN NEEDS this win and whoever says this game is pointless for CIN is completely ignorant.
CIN 4-1 ats on the road in the last five and are quite possibly going up against the worst defense yet aside from OAK
Foles & Brown combo looks good but they've played completely terrible defenses.

Strong trends:
Bengals are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 15.
Bengals are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 15.
Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.



Now give me reasons why I should lay off this game... CIN 27-16

:shake:
 
^^^ might be drooling at my avatar but Colin Cowherd is just amazing this year;)
 
Devils Advo here:

Cinci off a brutal loss, Philly off a solid win

Run me the home team/dogs on Thurs games record

and then.....as ddk says....the.league.is.bullshit.

Home.Dogs.In.Primetime.
 
twinkie13 said:
Devils Advo here:

Cinci off a brutal loss, Philly off a solid win

Run me the home team/dogs on Thurs games record

and then.....as ddk says....the.league.is.bullshit.

Home.Dogs.In.Primetime.
Click to expand...

:shake:
 
My .02

A play on Cincy has to be based on fading Philly. I cant back road chalk that gave up a 9 pt 4th quarter lead to a .500 team playing with several missing starters on defense.

And a big fuck you to Marvin for not running the ball more. 7.3 YPC on 20 attempts and you give up 10 pts in the last 6:35.

I think Cincy is 3-1 ATS as a road fav this year. Biggest number was 3 at KC.
 
I'm not ready to lay more than a FG with Cincy against anyone. And playing a night game in Philly is tough. I don't care who the QB is. A shame the Eagles didn't get pasted last week or we'd see a seven here.

I don't like this game from a betting angle but it would be Eagles or nothing at current price.
 
Stats say this is gonna be a close game. IMO the Eagles can be a better team without Vick, they now have a true NFL qb leading the team, unfortunately they are missing rb & wr. I think the Eagles find a way to win this game, not sold on the Bengals at all.
 
<iframe src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/Ow7YCgkdN3Y" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="320" width="480"></iframe>

:announce:
 
Let's get line analysis from Jay Kornegay and a pick on the game from professional handicapper Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com.






Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: Opened Bengals minus-3; now Bengals minus-4
Total: Opened at 46.5; now 45.5


Kornegay says: "The Eagles were the bookmakers' best friend last Sunday. With their last-second touchdown, Philadelphia knocked out about 80 percent of the teasers and money line parlays. I hope we're not asking for too much, but we'll need them again on Thursday. The Bengals lost a tough one but still opened up a minus-3 favorite, which has since then has climbed to minus-4. I don't think we'll sell too many tickets on Philly, but the sharps might jump on the home dog here.


"The public won't get too excited [they never do] with the Bengals, so I expect this line to come back down a half and settle in at minus-3.5 at kickoff. The total was dropping after opening up at 46.5. The current number is 45.5, but I think we'll see some "over" money and it will close at its original number of 46.5."


Prediction: Line will drop to minus-3.5; total will move back to 46.5.


Selvaggio says: "Cincinnati has a very underrated defense that has improved and shot up my rankings the past six weeks. Its strength is against the pass, but Philly has been terrible all year throwing long. If the Eagles decide to run the ball, I think they will be able to move it at a decent rate.


"The Bengals will have a big advantage when they have the ball, even with their average offense, but they will take on a Philly defense that has been susceptible to even atrocious passing attacks and rates out as one of the worst statistically in my rankings.


"Situationally, Philadelphia qualifies in my turnover table, which is based on its minus-19 turnover margin for the season. The Eagles also qualify in a late-season home dog angle that is 65 percent since 1980.


"I bet Cincinnati minus-3 early in the week for the simple fact of I thought this line was going up, so I wanted to put myself in a position to take the favorite early and than come back all the way over the top on the dog closer to kickoff. I don't know exactly how high this line will get, but I doubt I would have had much of a position on the Eagles if I didn't take Cincy at a good number early.


"With that being said, if there is any value at the current number, it's the Eagles or nothing. This is the time of the year where the teams that are knocked out of playoff contention tend to see the value on their side. The bookmakers know no one except the wiseguys is going to bet on teams with nothing to play for, so point spreads get inflated. Sharp guys took minus-3 on Cincinnati early, but I can tell you many of those same sharps will be on the Eagles come game time."






Selvaggio's pick ATS: Eagles
 
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