Vegas 75

[mrpickem]

So-so fight night card that would have been much better it the Emmett/Topuria wouldn't have got cancelled.



Rough week at 289 as Charles got me again, dude is the ultimate underdog fighter surprising me many times over. Went all in on Beneil and he actually looked good for half a round, but Charles is the man with power to go with his sub game.

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[mrpickem]

Early action...

• 2/1.05 Modestas Bukauskas -190
• 3/1.75 PAUGA vs BUKAUSKAS o2½ -171
• 4/1.63 ARGUETA vs LAWRENCE o2½ -245

Vegas 75
Early prelims

• Two solid strikers open the card, but I do think Bukauskas' length will allow him to work from the outside and impress the judges. He's normally a finisher (11 of 14 wins), but this is the UFC and Pauga is super durable. I expect this one goes the distance.
• Lawrence is likely to win here, but Argueta is dangerous, especially if he gets it to the ground. I think the over is the play with Ronnie juiced so high.

​

 

[mrpickem]

UFC Vegas 75
2/1.05 Modestas Bukauskas -190
3/1.75 PAUGA vs BUKAUSKAS o2½ -171
4/1.63 ARGUETA vs LAWRENCE o2½ -245

[2-1 -1.20u]

• 2/4.20 Tereza Bleda Wins Inside Distance +210
• 2.34/3 CARLOS HERNANDEZ +128
• 1/3.00 CARLOS HERNANDEZ KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +300
• 3/3.39 KYUNG HO KANG +113
• 3/1.07 ALESSANDRO COSTA -280
• 2/2.00 FLICK VS COSTA ENDS BY KO/TKO +100

ESPN 2 prelims

• Tereza Bleda (6-1) vs Gabriella Fernandes (8-2)...Bleda is well rounded and technical fighter, with a wrestling base as well as a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. She has the height and reach advantage, and her striking isn't bad. Fernandez loves big kicks and will look to land something big early on to gain some respect, otherwise I see Bleda taking this one to the mat and working for a sub.
• Carlos Hernandez (8-2) vs Denys Bondar (14-4)...I would think Denys utilizes his superior grappling. Once he gets the fight to the ground, he should be able to control Hernandez there and possibly work for a sub.
• Kyung Ho Kang (18-9) vs Cristian Quiñonez (18-3) ...Kang has been fighting in the UFC 10 years and is 10-3-1 there. Quiñonez comes in on a 5-fight heater and is the better striker, but the Korean fighter has tricks to get this fight to the ground where he has a real chance at the finish.
• Jimmy Flick (16-6) vs Alessandro Costa (12-3) ..."The Brick" comes in a big dog and it easy to see why, considering he's been considering retirement lately and Costa is a very strong (although a bit raw) up and comer. He hasn't had the success expected of him since getting to the UFC, but this could well be his coming out. A possible highlight reel KO could cap the prelims here.

 

[mrpickem]

Dayum, thought I had the finish with 1 second left... https://dubz.co/c/89eabe

 

[KJ]

It's bullshit, if they call that a headbutt every time it happened then they should just make throwdowns illegal

 

[mrpickem]

Main Card

• Nicolas Dalby (21-4-1) vs Muslim Salikhov (19-3)...Daldy even at 38 doesn't seem to be slowing down at all. With only 1 loss in his last 10 fights (4-1-1 in UFC) he's no easy mark. Salikhov is even older at 39, but brings a more powerful striking game with some very creative kick with plenty pop. But if Dalby can avoid the finish, I believe he stays more active and scores better with sheer volume.
• Manuel Torres (13-2) vs Nikolas Mott (13-4) ...This should be a fun watch since both these dudes just come to throw without a lot of defense. I think it's a coin flip, so I'll back the dog.
• Pat Sabatini (17-4) vs Lucas Almeida (14-1) ...Probably a boring kind of fight with Sabatini getting the takedown and basically riding Almeida for 15 minutes in order to avoid striking with him.
• Armen Petrosyan (8-2) vs Christian Duncan (8-0) ...Should be another standup war with Duncan taking advantage of an 8" reach advantage. A finish is likely.

​

 

[mrpickem]

[6-3 +5.26u]

• 3/4.77 Nicolas Dalby +159
• 2.41/4 NIKOLAS MOTTA +166
• 3/1.33 TORRES VS MOTTA ENDS BY KO/TKO -225
• 3.58/2 Pat Sabbatini -179
• 3/3.15 ALMEIDA vs SABATINI) o2½ +105
• 3/4.20 Armen Petrosyan +140
• 1.18/5 ARMEN PETROSYAN KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +425

 

[mrpickem]

Top of the Card:​

• 3/1.00 Arman Tsarukyan Wins Inside Distance -300
• 3.66/3 Marvin Vettori -122

• Arman Tsarukyan (19-3) vs Joaquim Silva (12-3)...The odds make this unplayable imho, but I'll throw a small play on the finish.
• Marvin Vettori (19-6-1) vs Jared Cannonier (12-3) ...Both guys are top of the chain MWs. Marvin pushes pace and likely closes the distance while looking for takedown(s), he's relentless. Jarod has more power and could potentially end the fight in a hurry if he connects the right shots. I think Marvin does enough to cruise to unanimous decision as long as he can avoid big shots.