Vegas 51 ~ 4/16
- Thread starter mrpickem
- Start date
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Looks like a 5:40 EST start today with the main card at 8PM
Vegas 51 - Early Prelims:
- Alateng Decision ... A powerful counter-puncher, Alateng requires a slow-paced affair to thrive. Under more pace, Alateng isn’t fast enough to make reads and is forced into panic wrestling. Of course, Croom’s style is a mess entirely. Very unlikely Croom gains an upper hand in the clinch with Alateng, and without any sort of wrestling threat to speak of, Alateng should outclass Croom on the scorecards.
- Nunes ... Nunes has already displayed her TDD inefficiencies against Angela Lee (in ONE) and Ariane Carnelossi – Hughes has a clear path to victory. But sadly, Hughes’ lack of physicality will struggle to transition from the cage to the mat. With such a clear differential on the feet, Nunes’ pockets of striking will be far more eye-catching to the judges than Hughes’ spells of grinding against the cage.
- Leavitt Sub ... The Mouse King remains the classic ‘throwback’ fighter who excels in one area and is all-in on the sub. Even with his poor wrestling, it won’t matter much if Ogden eventually shoots for the takedown himself.
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Vegas 51 - Prelims:
- Buday ITD ...The Slovak is a ridiculously durable fighter who usually digs deep late in fights and overwhelms typically exhausted HWs. Barnett’s leg kicks will be important in attempting to slow Buday’s pressure, but they haven’t shown the power to rival Buday’s durability. Despite a visibly stark speed disadvantage on the feet, Buday will force a pace that tires Barnett and gets a late stoppage.
- Garcia and over ... The best Garcia was on show vs Natan Levy. A crafty inside boxer who is happy to take risks and mix in regular takedowns. Although Ronson is the superior technical striker, his TDD deficiencies are difficult to overlook. Garcia’s leg kicks are likely to play a role as well. since Ronson sits heavily into his front foot.
- Klose KO ... Jenkins does have freakish durability, but his skill set is more of a regional level. Forgoing long-term damage from the Jeremy Stephens push, Klose should find it easy to connect with Jenkins’ jaw. Jenkins’ entertaining style may have booked him his place in the UFC, but his decision to eat punishment while waiting to land unorthodox strikes won’t work this time out.
- Kianzad Decision ... Other than walking into the clinch, Kianzad should dominate this fight on the feet. Lansberg is a solid enough offensive inside fighter and wrestler, but her striking at distance lacks education. The superior athlete vs an aging opponent returning from a long layoff, it's only Kianzad’s poor decision-making that could cost her a win.
- Clark ...Both men are moving up to HW and neither will likely see much success. Clark is a far superior technician on the feet and a workhorse, but Knight’s power without a weight cut could crack Clark’s biscuit chin. Knight’s lack of answers for taller fighters swings this one.
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
UFC Vegas 51: Main Card
ANDRE FIALHO VS MIGUEL BAEZA ~ Welterweight (170)
- Fialho KO AND UNDER ...Fialho is best known for retiring James Vick in XMMA, but the heavy-handed first-round finish machine is far more than that highlight reel. Even considering Fialho’s patience and late-round fall-off, Baeza’s faults are too difficult to overlook. Baeza lacks the technical striking defense base to launch his preferred counter-punching style. When the two trade, the Portuguese fighter’s nuclear power has to be favored.
MAYRA BUENO SILVA VS YANAN WU ~ Women’s Flyweight (125)
- Silva Decision ... There is no doubting the Brazilian’s durability, heart, or skillset, but Silva looked totally incapable of adapting to Manon Fiorot last time out. Still, Wu Yanan will close the distance and happily press forward. Sure, a solid chin is there, but Yanan fails to build on striking layers – each time she is hit feels like a factory reset. Pressure alone could beat Silva on the scorecards, but I’m favoring the Brazilian’s superior skillset.
PAT SABATINI VS T.J. LARAMIE ~ Featherweight (145)
- Sabatini KO Round 1 ... Tucker Lutz was sold as a tough wrestling threat, but Sabatini totally dominated the affair on the mat. That sort of potency on the ground benefits Sabatini on the feet too, eventually tagging Lutz with regular combinations by the later stages of their bout. While I was hot on Laramie prior to his UFC debut, it would appear that everything I expected from Laramie, is actually what Sabatini represents. There’s still time for the Canadian to refine his craft, but this fight feels like harsh match-making.
MOUNIR LAZZEZ VS ANGE LOOSA ` Welterweight (170)
- Lazzez Decision ... The Last Ninja is a fun Henri Hooft prospect, but the short-notice nature of this affair is a worry. Loosa’s tendency to sit at mid-range will benefit Lazzez, with the Swiss’ limited head movement often leaving him wide open to 2-3 shot combinations. The Sniper owns a surprisingly useful wrestling base, and although Loosa scrambled well against Jack Della Maddalena, it will create questions for Loosa on the feet.
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
For R1 KO it's +1800 but he is the favorite, just juicy odds for first-round KO as he's more known for sub or decision. The other play is just ITD(sub, KO or disq)
pb278817
“No, you idiot. Hawks eat squirrels!”
Gotcha sorry, I don’t have method and round just round. Hope you get it, that’d be a nice pluck!
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Vegas 51 - Co-Main Event:
CAIO BORRALHO(10-1) VS GADZHI OMARGADZHIEV(13-0) ~ Middleweight (185)
- Omargadzhiev ... Surprisingly, Borralho opted to fly out of the blocks against Jesse Strader and earnt himself a Round 1 stoppage. Borralho may well return to his slower-paced, single-shot karate against an opponent who will punish lax footwork with takedowns. Even so, Omargadzhiev has to be considered the heavy fav. Despite the limited tape, Omargadzhiev’s wrestling and grappling are legit. Borralho’s brash explosiveness in the DWCS will see him hit the mat early if repeated.
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Goona take a flyer on Fiahlo Rnd 1 KO
- 1.50/9 Andre Fialho in Round 1 by KO/TKO or DQ +600
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Vegas 51 - Main Event:
VICENTE LUQUE(21-7-1) VS BELAL MUHAMMAD(20-3) ~ Welterweight (170)
- Luque ITD ... Major issue Muhammad faces tonight, aside from already having been sparked out by Luque earlier in their careers, is his inability in dealing with Southpaws. Luque’s lead hook is his money shot. If Muhammad can’t assert his wrestling early, his voluminous boxing won’t threaten Luque enough into a gun-shy back-foot operator. However, Luque has been taken down before by lesser wrestlers. Vicente also has been willing to operate off his back. Plus the fact that Muhammad is a thorough game-planner and has consistently improved over his career, this could be a very even affair in the early rounds. Can Muhammad out-wrestle Luque over five tough rounds? I doubt it and have to back Luque finding the kill shot or series of.
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[12-8 +16.77u]
Belal is tough as nails and this could go either way. I have to back Luque and I seriously doubt this makes the cards as both guy will lay it on the line. Should be a banger.
- 4/4.00 VICENTE LUQUE KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +100
- 2.38/2 VICENTE LUQUE vs VICENTE LUQUE u4½ -119
Belal is tough as nails and this could go either way. I have to back Luque and I seriously doubt this makes the cards as both guy will lay it on the line. Should be a banger.
