Lions TT under and Lions/Bills FG under 39.5:
Lions are a mess on offense. Stafford is playing through a back injury that helped limit him to only 101 passing yards against Arizona and has kept him limited in practice. Departures of his wide receivers don't help him. Kerryon still won't return, but Bills run D is 8th-best in opposing YPC anyways. Three straight games with 16 or 17 points, not banking on another pick six. Public love for the game over (72%) has moved the total up a bit. Detroit's strength is its run D, McCoy is questionable for Buffalo, so up to Chris Ivory and Allen to get any run game going. Lions have limited mobile quarterbacks throughout the year---Dak, Cam, Russel, Jimmy G, etc., so I think it will pay attention to Allen's running, which is what he banks on most. He's only completing 52% of his passes.
Bengals -3:
Looking at how flat the Jags fell flat after beating Indy and how Cards fell flat after upsetting Green Bay (and some other examples) makes me think that there's a valid angle: crappy teams tend to become complacent the week after they get that good (against team with winning record) win that they can hang their hat on. Bengals gave up only two td's (one off short drive) to Denver in their last home game and were competitive against the Chargers, so it seems like they are still fighting. The Raiders could be without Mo Hurst, either way its run D ranks 26th in opp. YPC, it lucked out with Conner out for Pitt, but Mixon should have another big game for Cincy and, with Driskel improving, I think Cincy can feature a balanced offensive attack.
Cardinals +10:
Cards have major pass protection issues. They scored 3 points against Detroit which ranks 4th in adjusted sack rate and got 3 sacks and 8 qb hits. But they have found some "success" (i'm talking getting into double digits lol) against teams without such a strong pass rush. Atlanta doesn't have one (24th in adj sack rate) and ranks 26th in total defense.
Atlanta's offense has major issues, it's weak particularly in the interior line, which prevents the ground game from even getting started (32nd in stuff rate). Zona's d-line is relatively strong against the run (10th in stuff rate), the weakest aspect of its run D is in second-level, which won't become an issue against Atlanta. Atlanta hasn't exceeded 20 points in five straight games, I don't see what they have to play for--they had expectations for this season, whereas Arizona didn't. They've lost four of their last five by double-digits whereas Zona has remained competitive against bad opponents expect for the let-down against Detroit.
Redskins +7.5:
Dating to 2016, Was has covered and won its last five games after a home loss by double digits. Not sure Jags can even score eight points lol--Missing an NFL-caliber receiver and a thoroughly injury-ridden o-line, Jags have scored 15 points in their past two games and have zero to play for after disappointing season expectations. Skins have issues on offense as well, but I like that they're starting a mobile quarterback (Josh Johnson) because mobile quarterbacks have given the Jags a lot of problems.
Lions are a mess on offense. Stafford is playing through a back injury that helped limit him to only 101 passing yards against Arizona and has kept him limited in practice. Departures of his wide receivers don't help him. Kerryon still won't return, but Bills run D is 8th-best in opposing YPC anyways. Three straight games with 16 or 17 points, not banking on another pick six. Public love for the game over (72%) has moved the total up a bit. Detroit's strength is its run D, McCoy is questionable for Buffalo, so up to Chris Ivory and Allen to get any run game going. Lions have limited mobile quarterbacks throughout the year---Dak, Cam, Russel, Jimmy G, etc., so I think it will pay attention to Allen's running, which is what he banks on most. He's only completing 52% of his passes.
Bengals -3:
Looking at how flat the Jags fell flat after beating Indy and how Cards fell flat after upsetting Green Bay (and some other examples) makes me think that there's a valid angle: crappy teams tend to become complacent the week after they get that good (against team with winning record) win that they can hang their hat on. Bengals gave up only two td's (one off short drive) to Denver in their last home game and were competitive against the Chargers, so it seems like they are still fighting. The Raiders could be without Mo Hurst, either way its run D ranks 26th in opp. YPC, it lucked out with Conner out for Pitt, but Mixon should have another big game for Cincy and, with Driskel improving, I think Cincy can feature a balanced offensive attack.
Cardinals +10:
Cards have major pass protection issues. They scored 3 points against Detroit which ranks 4th in adjusted sack rate and got 3 sacks and 8 qb hits. But they have found some "success" (i'm talking getting into double digits lol) against teams without such a strong pass rush. Atlanta doesn't have one (24th in adj sack rate) and ranks 26th in total defense.
Atlanta's offense has major issues, it's weak particularly in the interior line, which prevents the ground game from even getting started (32nd in stuff rate). Zona's d-line is relatively strong against the run (10th in stuff rate), the weakest aspect of its run D is in second-level, which won't become an issue against Atlanta. Atlanta hasn't exceeded 20 points in five straight games, I don't see what they have to play for--they had expectations for this season, whereas Arizona didn't. They've lost four of their last five by double-digits whereas Zona has remained competitive against bad opponents expect for the let-down against Detroit.
Redskins +7.5:
Dating to 2016, Was has covered and won its last five games after a home loss by double digits. Not sure Jags can even score eight points lol--Missing an NFL-caliber receiver and a thoroughly injury-ridden o-line, Jags have scored 15 points in their past two games and have zero to play for after disappointing season expectations. Skins have issues on offense as well, but I like that they're starting a mobile quarterback (Josh Johnson) because mobile quarterbacks have given the Jags a lot of problems.
