VC's Garbage Teams Plays

[VirginiaCavs]

Lions TT under and Lions/Bills FG under 39.5:

Lions are a mess on offense. Stafford is playing through a back injury that helped limit him to only 101 passing yards against Arizona and has kept him limited in practice. Departures of his wide receivers don't help him. Kerryon still won't return, but Bills run D is 8th-best in opposing YPC anyways. Three straight games with 16 or 17 points, not banking on another pick six. Public love for the game over (72%) has moved the total up a bit. Detroit's strength is its run D, McCoy is questionable for Buffalo, so up to Chris Ivory and Allen to get any run game going. Lions have limited mobile quarterbacks throughout the year---Dak, Cam, Russel, Jimmy G, etc., so I think it will pay attention to Allen's running, which is what he banks on most. He's only completing 52% of his passes.

Bengals -3:

Looking at how flat the Jags fell flat after beating Indy and how Cards fell flat after upsetting Green Bay (and some other examples) makes me think that there's a valid angle: crappy teams tend to become complacent the week after they get that good (against team with winning record) win that they can hang their hat on. Bengals gave up only two td's (one off short drive) to Denver in their last home game and were competitive against the Chargers, so it seems like they are still fighting. The Raiders could be without Mo Hurst, either way its run D ranks 26th in opp. YPC, it lucked out with Conner out for Pitt, but Mixon should have another big game for Cincy and, with Driskel improving, I think Cincy can feature a balanced offensive attack.

Cardinals +10:

Cards have major pass protection issues. They scored 3 points against Detroit which ranks 4th in adjusted sack rate and got 3 sacks and 8 qb hits. But they have found some "success" (i'm talking getting into double digits lol) against teams without such a strong pass rush. Atlanta doesn't have one (24th in adj sack rate) and ranks 26th in total defense.
Atlanta's offense has major issues, it's weak particularly in the interior line, which prevents the ground game from even getting started (32nd in stuff rate). Zona's d-line is relatively strong against the run (10th in stuff rate), the weakest aspect of its run D is in second-level, which won't become an issue against Atlanta. Atlanta hasn't exceeded 20 points in five straight games, I don't see what they have to play for--they had expectations for this season, whereas Arizona didn't. They've lost four of their last five by double-digits whereas Zona has remained competitive against bad opponents expect for the let-down against Detroit.

Redskins +7.5:

Dating to 2016, Was has covered and won its last five games after a home loss by double digits. Not sure Jags can even score eight points lol--Missing an NFL-caliber receiver and a thoroughly injury-ridden o-line, Jags have scored 15 points in their past two games and have zero to play for after disappointing season expectations. Skins have issues on offense as well, but I like that they're starting a mobile quarterback (Josh Johnson) because mobile quarterbacks have given the Jags a lot of problems.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

I absolutely love the thread title.

Glad you have joined my garbage movement.

You don’t like it. — its garbage. End of story.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

No idea what you‘re talking about

 

[B.A.R.]

Look what I did ...

 

[KJ]

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Look what I did ...

Way to put in extra quality work right before annual voting

 

[2daBank]

Unders in buffalo make plenty of sense. Dunno why anyone would bet that over? I like bills so much I’m passing on total although agree w you. Most teams hate playing in buffalo in December, a going nowhere bunch of losers that could only muster 17 in a dome last week surely won’t wanna be playing this game.

That be only concern w total is lions care so little, defense feeling itself off stopping those offensive powerhouse cards, then stepping onto a cold wet field and deciding they really don’t want to be there!! Next thing you know bills jump all over them after fumble, muffed punt, broken coverage or 2 and lions get into situation where stafford throws a bunch in 2nd half which could lead to points for anyone plus clock stopped a bunch, one those not very pleasing kinda ugly things that somehow ends up high scoring. Dunno if that likely, I certainly wouldn’t bet on over, but occasionally get that fear in what typically looks like a ugly low scoring affair.. easy solution for me here is I really really like bills so won’t stress the total.,

Do raiders usually let down after beating Steelers? Should be a decent sample since it feels like they always beat Steelers in Oakland! I was actually looking total here instead of side. Bungals can try all they want, their defense sucks. So does raiders, could be the game w least amount of defensive talent on field all year!! (No idea if that true, sure feels like it tho!) so I’m going w the over.

Concern w fading raiders for me. All a sudden it looks like gruden and Carr might have figured something out as he has looked much better last few weeks, now they get the Swiss cheese d of the year, as much as chucky prob dug the tanking idea his team now locked into pretty good pick, think he rather know he has his qb and continue the good times here, or this could still work for the cynical, maybe he just would love to have Carr show out rest of way then flip him for another pick!! Lol. Wouldn’t shock me if you correct here so going over cause I think whatever the motivations here we should see points.

No way I could tell anyone it a bad idea to take 7.5 vs a jags team that can’t score. This like getting dd’s in college hoops vs slow grind it out teams! Points just really valuable when you get low ass totals w incompetent offenses. Realistically what you need from skins? 10-13 and ya gotta feel pretty good right? Skins should def be involved in few teasers, might cover teased number even if they get shut out!!

Gl buddy