Valspar Championship - Form Sheets

[BringInTheLefty]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cE1toFiPN9tZA4pauXbgF0YmPaocAp4aykZsjGDHnA8/htmlview

a pretty solid field considering the week after the Players




Innisbrook Golf and Spa Resort
Palm Harbour, Florida
Par: 71
Distance: 7,350 yards


water is in play on 9 holes & it can be a windy track; close to the ocean
very tough Par3's
easy Par5's
74 bunkers

 

[BringInTheLefty]

This field of 144 players includes 5 inside the OWGR top-20 and a total of 10 players inside the OWGR top-50

The list of past champions returning includes:
Sam Burns
Adam Hadwin
Jordan Spieth
Kevin Streelman
Luke Donald
Gary Woodland



Copperhead is a treelined, positional golf course that forces many layups off the tee
Golfers must work the ball in both directions at this course
It’s one of the most difficult courses on TOUR to gain strokes off the tee
Only twice since 2013 has the winning score pushed lower than -10
Pure greens have also proven to be a dream for Bermuda putting specialists, as Burns, for example, gained 5+ strokes putting at this event in each of his first four appearances


6 players made it through the cut in each appearance over the last 5 years (min. three starts):
Burns
McCarthy
Bryan
Haas
Glover
Hickok


This course has 5 par 3s
The top 10 par-3 scorers in the field are:
Suh
Hadley
NeSmith
Hadwin
Ben Taylor
Armour
Hardy
Luke Donald
Patrick Rodgers
Keegan Bradley






my only choice this week will be
Wyndham Clark

he’s on a streak of 10 consecutive top-50 finishes, he finished T27 in the Players
he made an equipment change from PXG to Titleist
he really enjoys putting on bermuda greens gaining strokes putting in 4 of his last 5 bermuda tournaments

I really think he gets his first career PGA TOUR victory this week

 

[hammer]

thanks

 

[B.A.R.]

I definitely expected a lighter field between API/TPC and match play.

 

[BringInTheLefty]

I definitely expected a lighter field between API/TPC and match play.

short drive and last leg of the Florida swing

 

[gps_3]

I definitely expected a lighter field between API/TPC and match play.

Valero in between match play and Masters will likely have a field that resembles an opposite field event. Maybe worse

 

[UpWithHopeDownWithDope]

First look top 10. Justin Rose and Davis Riley

 

[BringInTheLefty]

weather:



Thursday is mostly pleasant and should allow for some solid scores
There are decent wind gusts that could make things tricky, but it’s not too bad


Friday, the gusts pick up considerably getting to near 40 mph

Things get worse on Saturday and Sunday as rain enters the picture
There’s a decent chance Saturday and Sunday see some delays due to the potentially rainy conditions

 

[laopadak]

Thx for the data @BringInTheLefty all good stuff which hopefully results in some w’s.

 

[ScopeY]

weather:



Thursday is mostly pleasant and should allow for some solid scores
There are decent wind gusts that could make things tricky, but it’s not too bad


Friday, the gusts pick up considerably getting to near 40 mph

Things get worse on Saturday and Sunday as rain enters the picture
There’s a decent chance Saturday and Sunday see some delays due to the potentially rainy conditions

just to expand further... looks like afternoon thurs/morning fri is preferred golfer.

 

[laopadak]

Valspar- Going to add through the week but these three for now.

Brice Garnett top 40 +300 2u
Wyndham Clark (lefty special) top 10 +275 1u
Hadwin top 5, rd. 1 +600 2u

GL this week boys

 

[chipnotized]

Finish Position and Strokes Gained Course History (2015-2022)​

According to DataGolf, course history at Innisbrook is the 22nd most predictive on Tour.

 

[chipnotized]

 

[chipnotized]

 

[chipnotized]

 

[chipnotized]

Most Important Stats For Success at the Valspar Championship​

*In order of importance

• SG: APP
• Fairways Gained
• Bogey Avoidance
• Scrambling
• Good Drive%
• Par 5 Scoring
• SG: Putting (Poa Trivialis/Overall)
• Proximity 175+ yards
• Birdie or Better%
• SG: Total on Tough Scoring/Average Field Courses

 

[RBTrojan]

Valspar first round only:

Cole -125 vs Hodges: I see no reason to not fade Hodges in this spot. Last two tournaments he has two mc’s and all four rounds 76+. Cole bounced a bit after losing in a playoff to Kirk three weeks ago, which was understandable. Made the cut on the number last week and battled on the weekend to finish T-27. He’s from Florida (about 4 hours from Palm Harbor) and is playing well. That said, Hodges is not this bad and will rebound eventually, I truly believe he needs a break to regroup.

I have no faith in Webb Simpson this week or I would play him at plus money vs Hodges in a tournament match up. With weather being a huge issue on the weekend, I’m staying away from full tourney plays this week… It’s a long season and no reason to force plays. Plus there’s another sport that may get a lot of my attention this weekend…

Best of luck this week on your plays

 

[laopadak]

Valspar first round only:

Cole -125 vs Hodges: I see no reason to not fade Hodges in this spot. Last two tournaments he has two mc’s and all four rounds 76+. Cole bounced a bit after losing in a playoff to Kirk three weeks ago, which was understandable. Made the cut on the number last week and battled on the weekend to finish T-27. He’s from Florida (about 4 hours from Palm Harbor) and is playing well. That said, Hodges is not this bad and will rebound eventually, I truly believe he needs a break to regroup.

I have no faith in Webb Simpson this week or I would play him at plus money vs Hodges in a tournament match up. With weather being a huge issue on the weekend, I’m staying away from full tourney plays this week… It’s a long season and no reason to force plays. Plus there’s another sport that may get a lot of my attention this weekend…

Best of luck this week on your plays

Tailing that Cole play- got it at -107 (ties push), 2u

 

[Canes1]

Par 5s are killing him so far

 

[Canes1]

Par 5s are killing him so far

Par 3s on the back.

 

[BringInTheLefty]

38-34 for Wyndham Clark +1 T62nd
he’s got a lot of work to do tomorrow

I’ve got my eyes on Lucas Glover as an add on, today he fired -4 round 36-31

 

[RBTrojan]

A push is not bad considering the start. Fading Hodges was the right idea just did not cash…

 

[laopadak]

Rd.2, 3-ball.

Hickok v Vegas, Blair +150 3u
Schenk v Hahn, Hubbard +150 3u

GL tomorrow boys

 

[B.A.R.]

Rd.2, 3-ball.

Hickok v Vegas, Blair +150 3u
Schenk v Hahn, Hubbard +150 3u

GL tomorrow boys

Good luck!

 

[laopadak]

Thx Big Al. GL on your plays today

 

[laopadak]

Live- Schenk wins +900 1.5u

 

[BringInTheLefty]

Wyndham Clark tearing shit up today…
-5 thru 15 now at -4

 

[B.A.R.]

Wyndham Clark tearing shit up today…
-5 thru 15 now at -4

Very good comeback by him.

Only thing I played this week due to time constraints was tailing that as a outright.

He should be in the thick of things.

 

[BringInTheLefty]

todays weather:


gusty winds and 60% chance of t-storms between 2PM thru 5PM

 

[laopadak]

Rd 3- 2ball

Sabbatini v. Smalley +170 1u
Schenk v. Hickok -120 5u

GL today gents

 

[RBTrojan]

Rd 3- 2ball

Sabbatini v. Smalley +170 1u
Schenk v. Hickok -120 5u

GL today gents

Great call on schenk vs hickok today

 

[laopadak]

Great call on schenk vs hickok today

Thank you sir.

 

[laopadak]

Rd.4- Gribble top 10 (includes ties) -110 8u

C’mon Schenk FTW

GL today boys

 

[BringInTheLefty]

Rd.4- Gribble top 10 (includes ties) -110 8u

C’mon Schenk FTW

GL today boys

get that money today sir…

 

[laopadak]

Thx @BringingInTheLefty GL on your plays today as well.

 

[RBTrojan]

Great call on Gribble. What did you see to make that an 8u play?

 

[laopadak]

Great call on Gribble. What did you see to make that an 8u play?

Thx man. Been out all day today so was watching and listening on the phone. Definitely a shitty start but he did similar yesterday, finishing strong. Showed some guts today in turning +5 in first 6 holes to something respectable.

Main factors- Final round was expected to be slightly over par, weather would make it difficult for super low scores from those 4-5 back. He was tied for 4th, with a stacked leaderboard. All ties win and with such a tight leaderboard, top 10 could’ve included 16-20 players. Didn’t expect him to do anything miraculous, just pedestrian, keeping pace with the field. Glad it came through.

Will tally tomorrow but a very profitable week

 

[laopadak]

Good results at Valspar and would've been great if Schenk would've pulled it off. Unfortunately, I thought picking NCAA tourney winners would be easy, lol. Gave a bit of my golf winnings back this past 4 days. Onto the next...

Brice Garnett top 40 +300 2u L
Wyndham Clark (lefty special) top 10 +275 1u W
Hadwin top 5, rd. 1 +600 2u L
Hickok v Vegas, Blair +150 3u W
Schenk v Hahn, Hubbard +150 3u W
Live- Schenk wins +900 1.5u L
Sabbatini v. Smalley +170 1u L
Schenk v. Hickok -120 5u W
Rd.4- Gribble top 10 (includes ties) -110 8u W

Final tally +23u

GL next week

 

[B.A.R.]

Nice stuff.

Just a tough break off 18.

Man, that putt almost rammed in.