I tracked Valpo's first couple games as they were Dartmouth's opener.
No idea who Dll Indiana Wesleyan is, but Valpo got a walk-off 54y FG to win a close one. They played a really close game at Illinois State as a 33.5 pt dog and only lost 21-28. In their 8 games vs Missouri Valley Conference teams since 2010, the average margin of defeat had averaged 50 ppg! This time it was just 7. Ill St outgained them 325-256 (5.4-3.3) and outrushed them 129-65 (3.4-1.5).
Valpo also covered +32 at Dartmouth. That game was 21-10 HT (1H line was 20), then it was 21-13, 28-13 before Dartmouth bled 8min off the clock on their final drive for a 35-13 win. Dartmouth outrushed them 308-74 (6.8-3.0) while outgaining them overall 393-263 (7.1-4.4).
Illinois St and Dartmouth were both bad this year. Valpo covered vs both of them on pretty high lines. Those were in the course of a regular season schedule, now they haven't played since 11/19.
I would think that New Mexico State is off that huge upset, comes back home, finds out they are already bowl eligible it is a definite let down spot. But how much of a let down because the NM St run game is all that they need to win this game and they should find a lot of success running. Question for the cover I think is if Valpo can score some pts...they scored 21 and 13 in the two other games that I'm aware of that they were 30+ pt dogs in. Can they reach 17 here? If so that means that NM St has to get near 50 to cover. I would suspect that NM St empties the bench late and back door could be open for Valpo to walk in. Unless it is just like 42-0 HT. NM St led Lamar 37-0 HT, but Valpo might actually be better than that.