UTEP vs. No. 14 Texas: College Football Top Bets
Texas Longhorns vs. UTEP Miners
Saturday, September 12, 2020 at 8 p.m. ET at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
How To Approach A 42-Point Spread
Anybody who would support a play on Texas by only citing match-up details is simply belaboring already obvious points without giving any real explanation as to why Texas will cover the spread.
This is not to say that match-up details become unimportant in an expected blowout. They still are.
But because it’s easier in this situation to confuse match-up details with a mere comparison of opponent quality, we need to substantiate our breakdown of the match-up with another handicapping strategy.
How Do These Games Usually Go?
Looking at the past can say a lot about the future.
2020 will be Tom Herman’s fourth year as Head Coach at Texas. During his three previous years, his Longhorn teams have been consistent in their performance against no-name, extremely big underdogs.
Last year, Texas was favored by about 20 or more in two different non-conference games. Texas covered both — as 19.5-point favorites against Louisiana Tech and as 32-point favorites against Rice.
Betting On Halves
It turns out that Herman’s Longhorns aren’t very reliable in covering full-game spreads against UTEP-like teams. While they do tend to blow them out, we need to identify one more pattern within the pattern.
In its season opener against Louisiana Tech, Texas shut down its opponent for three quarters. But the Longhorns actually lost the fourth quarter as its victory was essentially wrapped-up.
Likewise, Texas demolished Rice in the first half. Like in the Louisiana Tech game, the full-game spread already seemed secure by halftime. But, again, the Longhorns lost the fourth quarter.
Last year was no anomaly. In 2018, Texas was up 21-0 at halftime against Tulsa, thus nearly covering the 22-point full-game spread. But Texas lost the fourth (and third) quarters to only win by seven.
Expecting first-half domination from Texas remains promising when we look at UTEP. Under their current head coach, the Miners played one Big 12 opponent last year.
Texas Tech was favored by 35 points and beat the Miners 38-3. The Red Raiders didn’t cover the spread because they allowed a late fourth-quarter field goal.
This is precisely what, based on recent history, we clearly don’t want with Texas — we don’’t want to have to rely on the Longhorns to secure their ATS victory in the fourth quarter.
UTEP In 2020
In Dana Dimel’s first two seasons as UTEP head coach, he was never able to do anything for the Miners’ pass attack.
Despite facing obviously weaker opponents than Texas does, 2018 saw the Miners rank 99th in passing yards per game. In 2019, they ranked 104th in this category.
Against a very tiny football program in Stephen F. Austin, with the support of an efficient running game, and on 28 pass attempts, the Miners barely eclipsed 200 passing yards in their season opener.
Their quarterback, Gavin Hardison, did not inspire any optimism that he is different than the Hardison in 2019 who completed 44 percent of his passes despite averaging only 5.5 YPA.
UTEP quarterbacks are certainly hindered by poor protection. Mostly the same group of Miner offensive linemen return.
Last year, largely thanks to them, UTEP ranked outside the top 90 in both rushing yards per game and sack percentage.
Defensively, the Miners struggled arguably more than any other team to create havoc in the backfield. They easily ranked last-place in tackles for loss.
They don’t bring any threats in the pass rush, which relies heavily on its leading sack guy from last year. Praise Amaewhule had all of three sacks.
With tiny linebackers and its three leading tacklers — all of whom were defensive backs — gone, UTEP won’t offer much resistance.
Texas’s Match-Up: Offense
With a potential first-rounder at left tackle, PFF’s returning pass-blocker at center, and size throughout the its offensive line, Texas can bully the Miners in the trenches.
Keaontay Ingram returns at running back. He accrued 5.9 YPC last year.
Returning quarterback Sam Ehlinger amassed a total of seven pass touchdowns to zero interceptions in last year’s covers against LA Tech and Rice.
Thanks to Texas’ pass protection and UTEP’s JUCO-laden, meager defensive line, Ehlinger will have all day to find a new-looking wide receiving group.
Brennan Eagles, who caught six touchdowns and exceeded 100 yards receiving against LSU, is one promising Longhorn receiver who is already familiar with Ehlinger.
These are talented, meaning well-ranked in recruiting, former prospects with experience who will have no problem assuming a larger role against UTEP’s defense.
Longhorn Defense vs UTEP Offense
Defensively, Texas's switch to a four-man front will help its pass rush.
One feature of this switch will be Joseph Ossai. While he focused on playing linebacker, this was in the outside in a 3-4 scheme.
Ossai was not always comfortable moving laterally in open space against agile backs or receivers. But he has the downhill burst and physicality to generate a lot of sacks.
Last year, he got five sacks. Three of them came in the bowl game against Utah where he justified his current switch to an edge pass rusher role.
Besides not really having anybody with the accuracy or the time to reliably get them the ball, UTEP’s wide receivers will have to contend with cornerback D’Shawn Jamison and defensive leader, free safety Caden Sterns.
Both (plus Ossai) were selected to the All-Big 12 Preseason Team. Sterns could be a first-rounder in next year’s draft.
The Verdict
History — namely their consistent first-half dominance ATS against heavy underdogs — indicates that Texas will take care of business early, flexing its obvious personnel advantages on both sides of the ball.
Best Bet: Longhorns First-Half ATS (Odds TBA)
Texas Longhorns vs. UTEP Miners
Saturday, September 12, 2020 at 8 p.m. ET at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
How To Approach A 42-Point Spread
Anybody who would support a play on Texas by only citing match-up details is simply belaboring already obvious points without giving any real explanation as to why Texas will cover the spread.
This is not to say that match-up details become unimportant in an expected blowout. They still are.
But because it’s easier in this situation to confuse match-up details with a mere comparison of opponent quality, we need to substantiate our breakdown of the match-up with another handicapping strategy.
How Do These Games Usually Go?
Looking at the past can say a lot about the future.
2020 will be Tom Herman’s fourth year as Head Coach at Texas. During his three previous years, his Longhorn teams have been consistent in their performance against no-name, extremely big underdogs.
Last year, Texas was favored by about 20 or more in two different non-conference games. Texas covered both — as 19.5-point favorites against Louisiana Tech and as 32-point favorites against Rice.
Betting On Halves
It turns out that Herman’s Longhorns aren’t very reliable in covering full-game spreads against UTEP-like teams. While they do tend to blow them out, we need to identify one more pattern within the pattern.
In its season opener against Louisiana Tech, Texas shut down its opponent for three quarters. But the Longhorns actually lost the fourth quarter as its victory was essentially wrapped-up.
Likewise, Texas demolished Rice in the first half. Like in the Louisiana Tech game, the full-game spread already seemed secure by halftime. But, again, the Longhorns lost the fourth quarter.
Last year was no anomaly. In 2018, Texas was up 21-0 at halftime against Tulsa, thus nearly covering the 22-point full-game spread. But Texas lost the fourth (and third) quarters to only win by seven.
Expecting first-half domination from Texas remains promising when we look at UTEP. Under their current head coach, the Miners played one Big 12 opponent last year.
Texas Tech was favored by 35 points and beat the Miners 38-3. The Red Raiders didn’t cover the spread because they allowed a late fourth-quarter field goal.
This is precisely what, based on recent history, we clearly don’t want with Texas — we don’’t want to have to rely on the Longhorns to secure their ATS victory in the fourth quarter.
UTEP In 2020
In Dana Dimel’s first two seasons as UTEP head coach, he was never able to do anything for the Miners’ pass attack.
Despite facing obviously weaker opponents than Texas does, 2018 saw the Miners rank 99th in passing yards per game. In 2019, they ranked 104th in this category.
Against a very tiny football program in Stephen F. Austin, with the support of an efficient running game, and on 28 pass attempts, the Miners barely eclipsed 200 passing yards in their season opener.
Their quarterback, Gavin Hardison, did not inspire any optimism that he is different than the Hardison in 2019 who completed 44 percent of his passes despite averaging only 5.5 YPA.
UTEP quarterbacks are certainly hindered by poor protection. Mostly the same group of Miner offensive linemen return.
Last year, largely thanks to them, UTEP ranked outside the top 90 in both rushing yards per game and sack percentage.
Defensively, the Miners struggled arguably more than any other team to create havoc in the backfield. They easily ranked last-place in tackles for loss.
They don’t bring any threats in the pass rush, which relies heavily on its leading sack guy from last year. Praise Amaewhule had all of three sacks.
With tiny linebackers and its three leading tacklers — all of whom were defensive backs — gone, UTEP won’t offer much resistance.
Texas’s Match-Up: Offense
With a potential first-rounder at left tackle, PFF’s returning pass-blocker at center, and size throughout the its offensive line, Texas can bully the Miners in the trenches.
Keaontay Ingram returns at running back. He accrued 5.9 YPC last year.
Returning quarterback Sam Ehlinger amassed a total of seven pass touchdowns to zero interceptions in last year’s covers against LA Tech and Rice.
Thanks to Texas’ pass protection and UTEP’s JUCO-laden, meager defensive line, Ehlinger will have all day to find a new-looking wide receiving group.
Brennan Eagles, who caught six touchdowns and exceeded 100 yards receiving against LSU, is one promising Longhorn receiver who is already familiar with Ehlinger.
These are talented, meaning well-ranked in recruiting, former prospects with experience who will have no problem assuming a larger role against UTEP’s defense.
Longhorn Defense vs UTEP Offense
Defensively, Texas's switch to a four-man front will help its pass rush.
One feature of this switch will be Joseph Ossai. While he focused on playing linebacker, this was in the outside in a 3-4 scheme.
Ossai was not always comfortable moving laterally in open space against agile backs or receivers. But he has the downhill burst and physicality to generate a lot of sacks.
Last year, he got five sacks. Three of them came in the bowl game against Utah where he justified his current switch to an edge pass rusher role.
Besides not really having anybody with the accuracy or the time to reliably get them the ball, UTEP’s wide receivers will have to contend with cornerback D’Shawn Jamison and defensive leader, free safety Caden Sterns.
Both (plus Ossai) were selected to the All-Big 12 Preseason Team. Sterns could be a first-rounder in next year’s draft.
The Verdict
History — namely their consistent first-half dominance ATS against heavy underdogs — indicates that Texas will take care of business early, flexing its obvious personnel advantages on both sides of the ball.
Best Bet: Longhorns First-Half ATS (Odds TBA)
