Jazz vs Bucks: NBA Picks and Predictions
Utah vs Milwaukee
Monday, November 25, 2019, at 8 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum
Rudy Gobert’s Status Is Decisive
Oddsmakers have yet to release a spread for tonight’s contest because Utah center Rudy Gobert’s playing status remains up in the air.
In Utah’s win on Friday against Golden State, Gobert suffered a left ankle sprain. This injury kept him out of Saturday’s game against the Pelicans and he’s officially listed as ‚questionable‘ for tonight’s contest.
Tony Bradley started in Gobert’s place. Bradley performed positively on offense. He went 7-for-8 from two, scoring 14 points. Utah spread the floor and gave him room to operate in the paint where he displayed nice touch around the rim.
Scoring inside against the Pelicans’ 23rd-ranked interior defense (by opposing two-point percentage), though, isn’t too impressive. But Bradley was able to help out his team against a supremely winnable opponent.
Gobert would be missed mostly on the defensive end where the multiple-time Defensive Player of the Year is literally irreplaceable.
He’s the biggest reason why Utah ranks fourth in opposing two-point percentage and why Utah boasts one of the NBA’s very best scoring defenses.
Utah plays close attention to the perimeter. It does not want opposing teams to attempt many threes. What Utah wants is for opponents to try to score inside where they’ll have to contend with Gobert.
The Frenchman is a solid on-ball defender with an elite ability to deter any shots in the rim. Currently, opponents are making only 38.9 percent of their two-pointers when Gobert is the primary defender.
For comparison’s sake, opponents are converting 48.8 percent of their two-pointers when guarded by Gobert’s backup, Bradley. That is nearly a 10-percent difference!
How Gobert Matters Match-Up Wise
On offense, Milwaukee loves to run isolation plays and it loves to run in transition. It owns the seventh-highest frequency of the former and the highest in the latter.
The centerpiece of Milwaukee’s offense is Giannis, a perennial MVP candidate who touches the ball almost twice as often as any other teammate.
Giannis thrives especially in transition where he owns the fifth-highest PPP (points per possession) among players who’ve started at least 10 games.
With Gobert, Utah ranks top-three in opposing PPP both against the iso and against transition. His ability to run the floor makes him effective against the latter as against the former.
Bradley had a couple nice defensive plays against the Pelicans that seemed to befuddle Utah sports writers.
Based on a larger data sample, his two-point defense represents a stark downgrade to Gobert’s and Giannis would be one of the best candidates to take advantage.
Can Utah Keep Pace?
On the offensive end, Utah runs the pick and roll ball-handler with the highest frequency.
In particular, Donovan Mitchell is central to an offense in which he wants to drive to the basket where he’s skilled both with his ability to score and his ability to locate an open shooter.
Milwaukee, however, has just the strategy under coach Budenholzer that constitutes an antidote to Utah’s basket-attacking proclivity off screens.
Budenholzer has the guy defending the screener sag off to deter any easy shot around the basket and to allow the screened player to recover.
In doing so, the Bucks protect the paint but they allow a ton of open shots.
Therefore, Utah’s production hinges strongly on its ability to exploit those opportunities.
However, Utah doesn’t like to attempt threes — it ranks 23rd in frequency of attempted threes.
It’s also hard to rely on Utah to be effective from deep on the road. They’re not a good shooting team and this shows especially in venues that are not their own. On the road, Utah ranks 11th in wide open three-point conversion rate and 21st in open three-point conversion rate.
Conclusion
Your best bet will depend on Gobert’s status. With him, Utah has an elite weapon against Milwaukee’s iso and transition game. Without him, Giannis can more easily have his way, as Bradley’s 9.9% opposing two-point rate indicates.
On the other side, Milwaukee’s defense will goad Utah into trying to execute the sort of offense that it doesn’t want to execute and Utah will struggle to score on the road.
If Gobert plays, I think Milwaukee wins 108-100. If Gobert doesn’t play, I think Milwaukee wins 118-105. When the spread and total are released, I would bet accordingly.
Best Bet: Odds TBA
Utah vs Milwaukee
Monday, November 25, 2019, at 8 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum
Rudy Gobert’s Status Is Decisive
Oddsmakers have yet to release a spread for tonight’s contest because Utah center Rudy Gobert’s playing status remains up in the air.
In Utah’s win on Friday against Golden State, Gobert suffered a left ankle sprain. This injury kept him out of Saturday’s game against the Pelicans and he’s officially listed as ‚questionable‘ for tonight’s contest.
Tony Bradley started in Gobert’s place. Bradley performed positively on offense. He went 7-for-8 from two, scoring 14 points. Utah spread the floor and gave him room to operate in the paint where he displayed nice touch around the rim.
Scoring inside against the Pelicans’ 23rd-ranked interior defense (by opposing two-point percentage), though, isn’t too impressive. But Bradley was able to help out his team against a supremely winnable opponent.
Gobert would be missed mostly on the defensive end where the multiple-time Defensive Player of the Year is literally irreplaceable.
He’s the biggest reason why Utah ranks fourth in opposing two-point percentage and why Utah boasts one of the NBA’s very best scoring defenses.
Utah plays close attention to the perimeter. It does not want opposing teams to attempt many threes. What Utah wants is for opponents to try to score inside where they’ll have to contend with Gobert.
The Frenchman is a solid on-ball defender with an elite ability to deter any shots in the rim. Currently, opponents are making only 38.9 percent of their two-pointers when Gobert is the primary defender.
For comparison’s sake, opponents are converting 48.8 percent of their two-pointers when guarded by Gobert’s backup, Bradley. That is nearly a 10-percent difference!
How Gobert Matters Match-Up Wise
On offense, Milwaukee loves to run isolation plays and it loves to run in transition. It owns the seventh-highest frequency of the former and the highest in the latter.
The centerpiece of Milwaukee’s offense is Giannis, a perennial MVP candidate who touches the ball almost twice as often as any other teammate.
Giannis thrives especially in transition where he owns the fifth-highest PPP (points per possession) among players who’ve started at least 10 games.
With Gobert, Utah ranks top-three in opposing PPP both against the iso and against transition. His ability to run the floor makes him effective against the latter as against the former.
Bradley had a couple nice defensive plays against the Pelicans that seemed to befuddle Utah sports writers.
Based on a larger data sample, his two-point defense represents a stark downgrade to Gobert’s and Giannis would be one of the best candidates to take advantage.
Can Utah Keep Pace?
On the offensive end, Utah runs the pick and roll ball-handler with the highest frequency.
In particular, Donovan Mitchell is central to an offense in which he wants to drive to the basket where he’s skilled both with his ability to score and his ability to locate an open shooter.
Milwaukee, however, has just the strategy under coach Budenholzer that constitutes an antidote to Utah’s basket-attacking proclivity off screens.
Budenholzer has the guy defending the screener sag off to deter any easy shot around the basket and to allow the screened player to recover.
In doing so, the Bucks protect the paint but they allow a ton of open shots.
Therefore, Utah’s production hinges strongly on its ability to exploit those opportunities.
However, Utah doesn’t like to attempt threes — it ranks 23rd in frequency of attempted threes.
It’s also hard to rely on Utah to be effective from deep on the road. They’re not a good shooting team and this shows especially in venues that are not their own. On the road, Utah ranks 11th in wide open three-point conversion rate and 21st in open three-point conversion rate.
Conclusion
Your best bet will depend on Gobert’s status. With him, Utah has an elite weapon against Milwaukee’s iso and transition game. Without him, Giannis can more easily have his way, as Bradley’s 9.9% opposing two-point rate indicates.
On the other side, Milwaukee’s defense will goad Utah into trying to execute the sort of offense that it doesn’t want to execute and Utah will struggle to score on the road.
If Gobert plays, I think Milwaukee wins 108-100. If Gobert doesn’t play, I think Milwaukee wins 118-105. When the spread and total are released, I would bet accordingly.
Best Bet: Odds TBA
