NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Utah Jazz vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Friday, May 14, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City
Utah’s Offensive Struggles
Objectively speaking, Utah’s offense is worse off without injured starting point guard Donovan Mitchell.
Since his absence began on April 17, Utah’s offensive rating has dropped.
The Jazz are less productive on offense despite facing a slew of teams with low-ranked defenses, the last example being Portland.
This offensive regression was to be expected since Mitchell was by far the team’s leading scorer with 26.4 points per game.
Moreover, he ranked seventh in the NBA in usage rate. This ranking indicates the extensive degree to which the Jazz relied on him.
They relied on Mitchell for his prowess as a ball-handler. His proclivity to drive inside gave Utah an added ability to score in other ways than by shooting threes.
Mitchell was also the focus of Utah’s ball-screen game. The Jazz loved to make use of center Rudy Gobert’s subtle screen-setting skill set by pairing Gobert with Mitchell as the ball-handler
This lack of inside scoring and ball-handling options is magnified by the absence of fellow guard Mike Conley.
Conley is, alongside Mitchell, Utah’s other top ball-handler. He has only just been upgraded to ‘questionable’ as he deals with his hamstring injury.
Utah’s focus will be on getting Conley healthy before the playoffs.
ATS Trend
Earlier in the season, the Jazz were almost automatic cover machines. But oddsmakers have caught up to them.
Now they are regressing. They’re currently experiencing an 0-3 ATS run.
Most importantly, they are unreliable when favored by double digits. They are 0-3 ATS and 1-2 SU in their last three games as double-digit favorites.
Series History
Series history speaks clearly in OKC’s favor.
The Thunder have covered their last six games against Utah.
The “under” is also on a 5-1 run.
Jazz Offense vs. Thunder Defense
Even the absence of Mitchell and his ability to drive inside notwithstanding, the Jazz are more reliant on attempting three-pointers than any other team.
They easily lead the NBA in three-pointers attempted per game, attempting 2.3 more threes per game than any other team.
This reliance on three-point shooting is something that the Thunder are aware of and that they have proven able to limit.
In this season, the Thunder nearly upset Utah as nine-point underdogs partly by limiting the Jazz to 13-of-36 shooting from deep.
Both teams last played on April 13. OKC again covered with ease partly by limiting Utah to well below its season average in three-point percentage.
Video footage reveals the attention that Thunder defenders pay to the perimeter, often compelling Jazz players to attempt improbably deep three-pointers.
With Utah scoring less efficiently from behind the arc and scoring fewer points in general, the Thunder offense has less work to accomplish in order to help OKC cover the spread.
OKC Offense vs. Utah Defense
After scoring 106 points in their last game against lowly Sacramento, the Thunder ended their streak of four games in which they failed to reach 100 points.
The team’s offensive ceiling is limited by the potential absence of point guard Ty Jerome, who would secure OKC’s depth at the position with more developed scoring ability.
In addition to upping his scoring average in May, Jerome is an efficient option in OKC”s favored ball-screen game as evident in Jerome’s PPP in pick-and-rolls for the ball-handler.
Even if Jerome is absent, the Thunder benefit from starting point guard Theo Maledon returning.
Maledon is the team’s favorite ball-handling option in its ball-screen game, which is an aspect that the Thunder can succeed with against a Utah defense that allows the second-most points per game against the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler.
Personnel changes — generally caused by injury — have altered the shot profile of the Thunder.
They used to rank among league leaders in three-pointers attempted.
But now, they are more reliant on scoring inside.
Maledon's ability — as well as that of developing teammates like Svi Mykhailiuk, who has upped his assist and point averages in May — to drive and score or to drive and create for and find teammates will boost the Thunder offense.
Parlay Verdict
Trends and series history speak for the Thunder and the “under” tonight.
With attentive perimeter defense, facing a Jazz offense that misses Mitchell, and with an effective ball-screen game, the Thunder will cover the spread while helping to secure the “under.”
Best Bet: Parlay Thunder ATS & Under (Odds TBA)
Utah Jazz vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Friday, May 14, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City
Utah’s Offensive Struggles
Objectively speaking, Utah’s offense is worse off without injured starting point guard Donovan Mitchell.
Since his absence began on April 17, Utah’s offensive rating has dropped.
The Jazz are less productive on offense despite facing a slew of teams with low-ranked defenses, the last example being Portland.
This offensive regression was to be expected since Mitchell was by far the team’s leading scorer with 26.4 points per game.
Moreover, he ranked seventh in the NBA in usage rate. This ranking indicates the extensive degree to which the Jazz relied on him.
They relied on Mitchell for his prowess as a ball-handler. His proclivity to drive inside gave Utah an added ability to score in other ways than by shooting threes.
Mitchell was also the focus of Utah’s ball-screen game. The Jazz loved to make use of center Rudy Gobert’s subtle screen-setting skill set by pairing Gobert with Mitchell as the ball-handler
This lack of inside scoring and ball-handling options is magnified by the absence of fellow guard Mike Conley.
Conley is, alongside Mitchell, Utah’s other top ball-handler. He has only just been upgraded to ‘questionable’ as he deals with his hamstring injury.
Utah’s focus will be on getting Conley healthy before the playoffs.
ATS Trend
Earlier in the season, the Jazz were almost automatic cover machines. But oddsmakers have caught up to them.
Now they are regressing. They’re currently experiencing an 0-3 ATS run.
Most importantly, they are unreliable when favored by double digits. They are 0-3 ATS and 1-2 SU in their last three games as double-digit favorites.
Series History
Series history speaks clearly in OKC’s favor.
The Thunder have covered their last six games against Utah.
The “under” is also on a 5-1 run.
Jazz Offense vs. Thunder Defense
Even the absence of Mitchell and his ability to drive inside notwithstanding, the Jazz are more reliant on attempting three-pointers than any other team.
They easily lead the NBA in three-pointers attempted per game, attempting 2.3 more threes per game than any other team.
This reliance on three-point shooting is something that the Thunder are aware of and that they have proven able to limit.
In this season, the Thunder nearly upset Utah as nine-point underdogs partly by limiting the Jazz to 13-of-36 shooting from deep.
Both teams last played on April 13. OKC again covered with ease partly by limiting Utah to well below its season average in three-point percentage.
Video footage reveals the attention that Thunder defenders pay to the perimeter, often compelling Jazz players to attempt improbably deep three-pointers.
With Utah scoring less efficiently from behind the arc and scoring fewer points in general, the Thunder offense has less work to accomplish in order to help OKC cover the spread.
OKC Offense vs. Utah Defense
After scoring 106 points in their last game against lowly Sacramento, the Thunder ended their streak of four games in which they failed to reach 100 points.
The team’s offensive ceiling is limited by the potential absence of point guard Ty Jerome, who would secure OKC’s depth at the position with more developed scoring ability.
In addition to upping his scoring average in May, Jerome is an efficient option in OKC”s favored ball-screen game as evident in Jerome’s PPP in pick-and-rolls for the ball-handler.
Even if Jerome is absent, the Thunder benefit from starting point guard Theo Maledon returning.
Maledon is the team’s favorite ball-handling option in its ball-screen game, which is an aspect that the Thunder can succeed with against a Utah defense that allows the second-most points per game against the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler.
Personnel changes — generally caused by injury — have altered the shot profile of the Thunder.
They used to rank among league leaders in three-pointers attempted.
But now, they are more reliant on scoring inside.
Maledon's ability — as well as that of developing teammates like Svi Mykhailiuk, who has upped his assist and point averages in May — to drive and score or to drive and create for and find teammates will boost the Thunder offense.
Parlay Verdict
Trends and series history speak for the Thunder and the “under” tonight.
With attentive perimeter defense, facing a Jazz offense that misses Mitchell, and with an effective ball-screen game, the Thunder will cover the spread while helping to secure the “under.”
Best Bet: Parlay Thunder ATS & Under (Odds TBA)
