Using the schedule to pick ats winners

[VirginiaCavs]

http://www.espn.com.au/nba/story/_/id/21913719/nba-schedule-alert-20-games-tired-teams-lose-january


This link provides a guide to the upcoming games in which one team will be at a huge disadvantage due to the schedule. Read it for a major capping advantage.

 

[tuck321]

Tomorrow Suns

 

[kdog]

http://www.espn.com.au/nba/story/_/id/21913719/nba-schedule-alert-20-games-tired-teams-lose-january


This link provides a guide to the upcoming games in which one team will be at a huge disadvantage due to the schedule. Read it for a major capping advantage.

What advantage do you think there is that's not already factored into the line? Those December games were only 3-7 ATS and I would imagine going forward will be somewhere around 50% but the article is not claiming spread wins, just straight up wins so lets look at this from a ML perspective.

December games would have produced a profit of 8.35 units (using 5Dimes closers) so the initial small sample size results are good. The real question is can that stand the test of time.

There are 54 games on the schedule alert for the 2017/18 season with a projected loss rate of 63%. A 63% win rate translates to a ML of ~ -170 which spread wise is about -4. The 'red alert' games games have a projected loss rate of 68.2% or ~ -215 or around -5.5.

December spreads were -11.5, -14.5, -8, -5.5, +4.5 (Phx lost straight up but covered), -6.5, -10, +3 (won as +135 dog), -9 & -5. Assuming December is at least a somewhat representative sample of the prices to be seen on these games Dec looks to be a bit of an outlier. Caveat emptor.

 

[kdog]

ESPN stuff is rarely helpful. Just sayin...

 

[pip2]

Thanks kdog. Today, specifically, the BookMaker moneyline on the Cavaliers Trailblazers game is -525. 2 x-factors in the game are the return of both
Isiah Thomas and Damian Lillard to action. Both of these players are game-changers, though probably not under these circumstances.

But I guess the bottom line question for me is, could the Trailblazers be expected to win more than 1 out of 6 games in this particular situation?

 

[emkee]

Once Disney got a hold of this stuff it's been a gaping anus.

 

[Cgreen54]

Spot on today...

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Everything is already factored in the lines making Luck the most important variable.