USC vs. UCLA: NCAA Week 15 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
USC Trojans vs. UCLA Bruins
Saturday, December 12, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) at Rose Bowl Stadium in Pasadena, California
4-0
It is true that USC is 4-0. But it hasn’t proven what its record may suggest.
The combined win total of its four defeated opponents so far is two.
So far, USC edged past 0-2 Arizona State. USC edged past 0-4 Arizona.
Then the Trojans defeated Utah and Washington State squads that each have one win. For both of these latter two teams, that one win came against typically sub-.500 Oregon State.
So the combined record of USC’s opponents thus far is 2-10.
USC Run Defense
Obviously, I am not trying to punish the Trojans for having had a soft schedule so far. Maybe the Trojans have shown some things during their victories that should give us optimism regarding their performance against UCLA?
I don’t like the Trojans precisely because they have shown things that should give any prospective backer cause to worry.
One big thing is run defense. The Trojans rank 56th nationally in run defense as measured by opposing rushing yards per game.
Now, this ranking isn’t terrible. It’s average. But again, consider who USC has played.
The Trojans have played one team that ranks similarly to UCLA in rush offense. That team is Arizona State.
Against USC, Arizona State produced 258 rushing yards on 38 attempts. The Sun Devils simply ran the ball again and again. They did so with their quarterback and with their top two running backs. But USC had no answer.
This poor run defense could be a consequence of having a new defensive coordinator — Todd Orlando is in his first year at USC.
But the Trojans definitely have a personnel issue pertaining to their run defense, which is why their struggles in defending the run against good running opponents was really to be expected.
Last year, USC allowed a lot of runs on the outside. In turn, they had strong interior defenders.
This year, though, they miss defensive tackle Jay Tufele. He was an All-Pac 12 First-Teamer in 2019.
So now the Trojan run defense is and will be weak everywhere — against both inside and outside rushing attempts.
UCLA Run Offense
All of these details about the Trojan run defense matter because UCLA loves to run the ball.
Offensively, the Bruins match up well with USC because they own the nation’s 19th-highest run play percentage. USC with its weak run defense is their ideal opponent.
Demetric Felton is the squad’s feature running back. He averages 5.2 YPC. His backup averages 6.3 YPC and quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson also poses a threat on the ground with his 5.8 YPC average.
The running ability of DTR is particularly worrisome to a USC defense that allowed Sun Devil quarterback Jayden Daniels to exceed 100 rushing yards.
If mobile quarterbacks are a problem for the Trojan defense — and it clearly looks that way — then, again, UCLA is not an ideal opponent.
The Importance of Balance
USC is one-dimensional. It does not want to run the ball — even despite the amount of time which it has spent leading its games. Currently, it owns the 122th-highest run play percentage in the nation.
Trojan running backs go down too easily. The offensive line blocks for them too poorly, failing consistently to open up sufficient running lanes for them to exploit.
So the Trojan team averages 3.6 YPC, which ranks 95th nationally.
I like the Bruin offense more than USC’s because the former can show balance.
DTR is underrated and overlooked because of his initial struggles at UCLA.
But times have changed. Right now, he ranks among the nation’s leaders in passer rating. He is excelling as a passer no matter the opponent while he can also use his legs.
USC Offense vs. UCLA Defense
The Trojan offense matches up poorly with the Bruins because the former own the nation’s sixth-highest pass play percentage. The Bruins, in turn, rank 14th nationally in sack percentage and 27th in opposing passer rating.
UCLA brings pressure potentially from a wide variety of sources. It will bring even more pressure against a USC squad who it knows will pass and pass often.
Plenty of Bruin players complement each other in the secondary, regularly locking down opposing wide receivers.
Brian Norwood is one person here who deserves credit. UCLA's new defensive backs coach has installed an attacking 4-2-5 defense that is evidently working.
The Verdict
USC is overrated because of its soft competition.
Against easier opponents, the Trojans have showcased major weaknesses on both sides of the ball that UCLA will exploit.
Behind a strong running game, a balanced offense, and an attack-minded defense, UCLA will pull off the upset.
Best Bet: Bruins +3 at -108 with Heritage
USC Trojans vs. UCLA Bruins
Saturday, December 12, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) at Rose Bowl Stadium in Pasadena, California
4-0
It is true that USC is 4-0. But it hasn’t proven what its record may suggest.
The combined win total of its four defeated opponents so far is two.
So far, USC edged past 0-2 Arizona State. USC edged past 0-4 Arizona.
Then the Trojans defeated Utah and Washington State squads that each have one win. For both of these latter two teams, that one win came against typically sub-.500 Oregon State.
So the combined record of USC’s opponents thus far is 2-10.
USC Run Defense
Obviously, I am not trying to punish the Trojans for having had a soft schedule so far. Maybe the Trojans have shown some things during their victories that should give us optimism regarding their performance against UCLA?
I don’t like the Trojans precisely because they have shown things that should give any prospective backer cause to worry.
One big thing is run defense. The Trojans rank 56th nationally in run defense as measured by opposing rushing yards per game.
Now, this ranking isn’t terrible. It’s average. But again, consider who USC has played.
The Trojans have played one team that ranks similarly to UCLA in rush offense. That team is Arizona State.
Against USC, Arizona State produced 258 rushing yards on 38 attempts. The Sun Devils simply ran the ball again and again. They did so with their quarterback and with their top two running backs. But USC had no answer.
This poor run defense could be a consequence of having a new defensive coordinator — Todd Orlando is in his first year at USC.
But the Trojans definitely have a personnel issue pertaining to their run defense, which is why their struggles in defending the run against good running opponents was really to be expected.
Last year, USC allowed a lot of runs on the outside. In turn, they had strong interior defenders.
This year, though, they miss defensive tackle Jay Tufele. He was an All-Pac 12 First-Teamer in 2019.
So now the Trojan run defense is and will be weak everywhere — against both inside and outside rushing attempts.
UCLA Run Offense
All of these details about the Trojan run defense matter because UCLA loves to run the ball.
Offensively, the Bruins match up well with USC because they own the nation’s 19th-highest run play percentage. USC with its weak run defense is their ideal opponent.
Demetric Felton is the squad’s feature running back. He averages 5.2 YPC. His backup averages 6.3 YPC and quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson also poses a threat on the ground with his 5.8 YPC average.
The running ability of DTR is particularly worrisome to a USC defense that allowed Sun Devil quarterback Jayden Daniels to exceed 100 rushing yards.
If mobile quarterbacks are a problem for the Trojan defense — and it clearly looks that way — then, again, UCLA is not an ideal opponent.
The Importance of Balance
USC is one-dimensional. It does not want to run the ball — even despite the amount of time which it has spent leading its games. Currently, it owns the 122th-highest run play percentage in the nation.
Trojan running backs go down too easily. The offensive line blocks for them too poorly, failing consistently to open up sufficient running lanes for them to exploit.
So the Trojan team averages 3.6 YPC, which ranks 95th nationally.
I like the Bruin offense more than USC’s because the former can show balance.
DTR is underrated and overlooked because of his initial struggles at UCLA.
But times have changed. Right now, he ranks among the nation’s leaders in passer rating. He is excelling as a passer no matter the opponent while he can also use his legs.
USC Offense vs. UCLA Defense
The Trojan offense matches up poorly with the Bruins because the former own the nation’s sixth-highest pass play percentage. The Bruins, in turn, rank 14th nationally in sack percentage and 27th in opposing passer rating.
UCLA brings pressure potentially from a wide variety of sources. It will bring even more pressure against a USC squad who it knows will pass and pass often.
Plenty of Bruin players complement each other in the secondary, regularly locking down opposing wide receivers.
Brian Norwood is one person here who deserves credit. UCLA's new defensive backs coach has installed an attacking 4-2-5 defense that is evidently working.
The Verdict
USC is overrated because of its soft competition.
Against easier opponents, the Trojans have showcased major weaknesses on both sides of the ball that UCLA will exploit.
Behind a strong running game, a balanced offense, and an attack-minded defense, UCLA will pull off the upset.
Best Bet: Bruins +3 at -108 with Heritage
