Write-up forthcoming. Still too high. But I worked out some notes perched on a glorious flight of stairs in the middle of campus
Pick Sun-Devils to Roast Fading Trojans
Arizona State (4-3) hosts No. 21 USC (6-2) this Saturday at 10:45 PM ET. The Sun Devils, who currently sit a half game behind first-place USC in the Pac-12 South, are underdogs of between 3 and 4 points.
USC’s offense is suffering to establish its identity. Last season, the Trojans were a physical, run-first team. This season, they are relying on quarterback Sam Darnold for their offensive production: USC is 37th in pass play percentage.
The Trojans’ new identity on offense makes them a bad match-up for the Sun Devils, who are 4-0 ATS when allowing 120 rush yards or less, but 0-2 when allowing more. USC’s only cover this season came when Ronald Jones ran 20+ times. Particularly by not depending on his production, the Trojans have disappointed oddsmakers’ expectations in every other game.
But the problem is not just with play-calling. USC’s passing game should be productive enough to facilitate its run game by demanding enough of the defense’s attention. Darnold has poorly responded to the pressure placed on his shoulders by becoming less consistent with his accuracy and by consistently making poor decisions. Darnold, with 10 interceptions, has already exceeded his number of interceptions thrown from last year.
The Trojans will want to start fast and be competitive from the beginning in order to maintain offensive balance and rhythm. Arizona State, however, is 23rd in scoring 8.6 first quarter points/game.
When the Devils can start off strong, USC’s play-calling must become more predictable and passing-oriented. The Sun Devils, who have outscored their two opponents since their Bye Week 16-0 in the first quarter, can force USC’s offense to resolve its primary issue, its reliance on Darnold to move the offense forward.
Darnold matches up poorly against Arizona State’s 4-2-5 defense, which is aligned especially to cover the short and intermediate routes, which comprise Darnold’s strength. The Sun Devils’ defense will be effective by taking away the Trojans’ main source of production, while at the same time forcing them to rely on that source.
Even if the Devils fail to achieve their typical quick start, their front 7 has improved the pressure and penetration that it applies to the opposing quarterback and backfield. In their two wins after the Bye Week, the Devils achieved 15 tackles for loss. JoJo Wicker leads the defensive line with 9 tackles for loss, Alani Latu and DJ Calhoun the linebackers with 6.5 each. The Devils rank 26th in sack percentage. Since last year, their pass rush has received a marked boost by playing at home, with a sack percentage that puts them in the top 3 overall. The surging defensive line can shred a USC offensive line that is constantly dealing with injuries and attack Darnold, whose pocket presence is restricted with an ankle injury.
Arizona State’s defensive leaders boast continuity because they are experienced and remain healthy. This continuity is crucial to their improvement since the bye week. The Devils’ defensive scheme matches up well against a USC team that is prone to turnovers and struggling with blocking. The maturing Devils’ defenders have taken vast strides to eliminate the big plays that had been their kryptonite. Devils’ defensive coordinator Phil Bennett loves to blitz by using a variety of disguises. But now, his defenders have improved their deep-ball coverage and the defense as a whole, thanks to its continuity, is learning to balance risk and reward. The Devils, last year one of the worst in this category, rank 35th in averaging 11.3 yards per pass completion. They have allowed less than 5 in each game since the bye week.
USC’s defensive line has been anemic due to lack of skill and high number of injuries. Even if USC’s pass rush improves, Arizona State quarterback Manny Wilkins is consistently effective under pressure and maintains good decision-making. He has only 3 INTs on the season.
Wilkins is able to be mobile and keep his eyes down the field. He uses his strong arm and consistent accuracy to make plays outside the pocket and keep the chains moving. He relies most on N’Keal Harry, who leads the team with 51 receptions and 627 passing yards. Harry and Wilkins benefit from injury to USC“s top cornerback. Wilkins can pick apart USC’s secondary, against whom he should be increasingly effective with more time to pass. The Trojans’ lack of pass attack should continue to wane as the Devils, who rank 12th in possessing the ball for 55% of the game, wear them down. The Devils also boast a respectable running duo, who have performed better since the bye week, Kalen Ballage and Demario Richard, to keep the defense honest.
The Verdict
Arizona State should control the trenches. They boast consistent playmakers on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they can reliably score with their balanced offensive attack led by Wilkins against a depleted USC secondary and their running duo, against USC’s depleted interior line. Defensively, the Devils can force USC to be one-dimensional on offense by starting quickly and controlling the line of scrimmage. They can apply pressure on Darnold, force him to resume his turnover difficulties, and continue to refute USC’s new Darnold-first offensive identity.
NCAAF Pick Offered: Arizona State +3.5
Arizona State 4-0 ATS when allowing 120 rush yards or less. 0-2 when allowing more
USC should want to run, with Jones against team with horrible yards allowed per carry. USC only cover when Jones 20+ carries. But they’ve been relying on Darnold to run offense, consistently choosing to not run so many times. But will need to establish pass to help the run—unlike vs Notre Dame, behind fast. Darnold more vulnerable when play-calling more obvious. Couldn’t establish rhythm and keep balanced play-calling. Bad news: ASU 23rd in first quarter points/game. Doesn’t throw a strong deep ball—more vulnerable to 4-2-5, which alligned for short slants and intermediate routes. Devils huge improvement in yards per pass allowed—less big plays. Loves to blitz with variety of disguises but exposure to big play. improved deep ball coverage, balancing risk with reward more effectively. This season returning a lot of experience and dealing with fewer injuries: significance of continuity
ASU solid returning line, performance since break. Vs Darnold, injured O-line, hard to scramble with injured ankle. Proclivity to turnovers. Same problem as vs ND
Battered, still anemic USC pass rush. Wilkins anyhow solid under pressure Maintains good decision-making only 3 season INT’s. USC top corner out vs ASU star wideout RB duo strong since bye week: balanced attack
Penalties/turnovers.
Pick: ASU +3.5
Pick Sun-Devils to Roast Fading Trojans
Arizona State (4-3) hosts No. 21 USC (6-2) this Saturday at 10:45 PM ET. The Sun Devils, who currently sit a half game behind first-place USC in the Pac-12 South, are underdogs of between 3 and 4 points.
USC’s offense is suffering to establish its identity. Last season, the Trojans were a physical, run-first team. This season, they are relying on quarterback Sam Darnold for their offensive production: USC is 37th in pass play percentage.
The Trojans’ new identity on offense makes them a bad match-up for the Sun Devils, who are 4-0 ATS when allowing 120 rush yards or less, but 0-2 when allowing more. USC’s only cover this season came when Ronald Jones ran 20+ times. Particularly by not depending on his production, the Trojans have disappointed oddsmakers’ expectations in every other game.
But the problem is not just with play-calling. USC’s passing game should be productive enough to facilitate its run game by demanding enough of the defense’s attention. Darnold has poorly responded to the pressure placed on his shoulders by becoming less consistent with his accuracy and by consistently making poor decisions. Darnold, with 10 interceptions, has already exceeded his number of interceptions thrown from last year.
The Trojans will want to start fast and be competitive from the beginning in order to maintain offensive balance and rhythm. Arizona State, however, is 23rd in scoring 8.6 first quarter points/game.
When the Devils can start off strong, USC’s play-calling must become more predictable and passing-oriented. The Sun Devils, who have outscored their two opponents since their Bye Week 16-0 in the first quarter, can force USC’s offense to resolve its primary issue, its reliance on Darnold to move the offense forward.
Darnold matches up poorly against Arizona State’s 4-2-5 defense, which is aligned especially to cover the short and intermediate routes, which comprise Darnold’s strength. The Sun Devils’ defense will be effective by taking away the Trojans’ main source of production, while at the same time forcing them to rely on that source.
Even if the Devils fail to achieve their typical quick start, their front 7 has improved the pressure and penetration that it applies to the opposing quarterback and backfield. In their two wins after the Bye Week, the Devils achieved 15 tackles for loss. JoJo Wicker leads the defensive line with 9 tackles for loss, Alani Latu and DJ Calhoun the linebackers with 6.5 each. The Devils rank 26th in sack percentage. Since last year, their pass rush has received a marked boost by playing at home, with a sack percentage that puts them in the top 3 overall. The surging defensive line can shred a USC offensive line that is constantly dealing with injuries and attack Darnold, whose pocket presence is restricted with an ankle injury.
Arizona State’s defensive leaders boast continuity because they are experienced and remain healthy. This continuity is crucial to their improvement since the bye week. The Devils’ defensive scheme matches up well against a USC team that is prone to turnovers and struggling with blocking. The maturing Devils’ defenders have taken vast strides to eliminate the big plays that had been their kryptonite. Devils’ defensive coordinator Phil Bennett loves to blitz by using a variety of disguises. But now, his defenders have improved their deep-ball coverage and the defense as a whole, thanks to its continuity, is learning to balance risk and reward. The Devils, last year one of the worst in this category, rank 35th in averaging 11.3 yards per pass completion. They have allowed less than 5 in each game since the bye week.
USC’s defensive line has been anemic due to lack of skill and high number of injuries. Even if USC’s pass rush improves, Arizona State quarterback Manny Wilkins is consistently effective under pressure and maintains good decision-making. He has only 3 INTs on the season.
Wilkins is able to be mobile and keep his eyes down the field. He uses his strong arm and consistent accuracy to make plays outside the pocket and keep the chains moving. He relies most on N’Keal Harry, who leads the team with 51 receptions and 627 passing yards. Harry and Wilkins benefit from injury to USC“s top cornerback. Wilkins can pick apart USC’s secondary, against whom he should be increasingly effective with more time to pass. The Trojans’ lack of pass attack should continue to wane as the Devils, who rank 12th in possessing the ball for 55% of the game, wear them down. The Devils also boast a respectable running duo, who have performed better since the bye week, Kalen Ballage and Demario Richard, to keep the defense honest.
The Verdict
Arizona State should control the trenches. They boast consistent playmakers on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they can reliably score with their balanced offensive attack led by Wilkins against a depleted USC secondary and their running duo, against USC’s depleted interior line. Defensively, the Devils can force USC to be one-dimensional on offense by starting quickly and controlling the line of scrimmage. They can apply pressure on Darnold, force him to resume his turnover difficulties, and continue to refute USC’s new Darnold-first offensive identity.
NCAAF Pick Offered: Arizona State +3.5
Arizona State 4-0 ATS when allowing 120 rush yards or less. 0-2 when allowing more
USC should want to run, with Jones against team with horrible yards allowed per carry. USC only cover when Jones 20+ carries. But they’ve been relying on Darnold to run offense, consistently choosing to not run so many times. But will need to establish pass to help the run—unlike vs Notre Dame, behind fast. Darnold more vulnerable when play-calling more obvious. Couldn’t establish rhythm and keep balanced play-calling. Bad news: ASU 23rd in first quarter points/game. Doesn’t throw a strong deep ball—more vulnerable to 4-2-5, which alligned for short slants and intermediate routes. Devils huge improvement in yards per pass allowed—less big plays. Loves to blitz with variety of disguises but exposure to big play. improved deep ball coverage, balancing risk with reward more effectively. This season returning a lot of experience and dealing with fewer injuries: significance of continuity
ASU solid returning line, performance since break. Vs Darnold, injured O-line, hard to scramble with injured ankle. Proclivity to turnovers. Same problem as vs ND
Battered, still anemic USC pass rush. Wilkins anyhow solid under pressure Maintains good decision-making only 3 season INT’s. USC top corner out vs ASU star wideout RB duo strong since bye week: balanced attack
Penalties/turnovers.
Pick: ASU +3.5
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