US Open plays

RBTrojan

A Child of Aliens
I may add more but this is quite a few for me already:

Kodaira -110 vs Thornberry: I tend to stay away from wagers that involve matches I have bet on recently. I had Thornberry last week and lost. Following him pretty closely he did not strike the ball very well from what I saw. He putted lights out. I think a US Open set up will eat him alive based on what I saw last week. Kodaira is a solid top 50 player in the world and I thought he played really well at the Masters this year. He's made the cut in his last three majors played and I think that will be enough here. I do not think Thornberry will make it to the weekend.

Rahm -140 vs Woods: I still believe in Rahm to be a force going forward. He is higher ranked in driving distance, accuracy, greens in regulation and shots gained putting. I also think the groupings favor Rahm as well. He is playing with fellow Spaniards Cabrera Bello and Garcia. Meanwhile Tiger is playing with DJ and Justin Thomas. I think the speed of Johnson and Thomas may influence Tiger to swing quicker as well.

Harman +115 vs Z Johnson: Both guys are bulldogs and frankly either guy could win this match up. I like that Harman was T2 last year in this event. His average drives are longer, more accurate, more greens in regulation, higher ranked in shots gained putting and his world golf ranking is higher as well. Plus I feel Zach likes a lower ball flight which I believe will be a disadvantage this week. I think the wrong guy is favored here.

Willett +125 vs Li: I feel a bit sketchy on this one but I have reasoning for this one. Willett in my opinion is starting to turn a corner and play better golf again. He was a T8 in his last event two weeks ago in Italy. He beat Li by two strokes in that event. I have a sneaky feeling that Li will be caught up in the Tiger effect in rounds 1 and 2. He will be playing in the group behind Tiger, DJ and Thomas. There will be a lot of noise along with a bunch of movement when the group in front will be finishing on the green. I have zero stats to back this up. I got caught up in the Tiger effect when I was a young kid playing in Junior events back in the day in Socal. The effect is real in my opinion. Li may be able to get over this issue and play well but I am willing to take a shot in this match up.

S Akiyoshi +130 vs Els: Again this is another stab but I will take a swing here. Akiyoshi is coming off his first pro win two weeks ago in Japan. The 27 year ols is ranked 183rd in the world. Els is playing this event on a special exemption. He is currently ranked 696th in the world. I'll take a shot with the 27 year old against a 48 year old who is in the twilight of his Majors career.

While I am playing all of these for one unit, I did list them in order of preference. I normally don't do so... Fade or follow best of luck and enjoy the tournament!
 
Great analysis as always. I like the Rahm bet over Tiger. Woods always has one round he really struggles with each tourney at least and over the course of 4 days Rahm is going to be able to score better. This course requires you to have it all working and Tiger will generally be missing one part each week (which to his credit -- is amazing with how in contention he has been).
 
Thanks Bar much appreciated. Rooting for Mickelson to get the career slam. I was really hoping Woods would be matched up with Rose at my book this week but that is not the case. I think Rose and Fowler are going to have solid weeks. Best of luck with your plays.
 
Willett +125 vs Li

looked at this @ Westgate. they have it Danny Willett+130 over Haotong Li.

Willett was T-4th after 3rd round Italian Open [-14] and finished T-8th [-16]. watching the tourney his game the best it has been in over a year
my pet ChiCom Li really has NOT done much since his DDC win back in January and finished T-19th in Italy

my other "of interest" tourney match plays are Ryan Fox +170 over Bill Haas and Matt Wallace +150 over Alex Levy both @ Westgate

the big Kiwi Fox is VERY long off the tee (Euro Tour average 314 yards) and plays links courses well with T-4th at BOTH the Irish and Scottish Open last season. also T-8th his last @ Italian Open. his "to win" is 300-1 down from 500-1 on the opening
Haas three CUTS and a T-57th his last five tourneys with a T-14 @ Colonial

"WALL-E" Wallace WON Indian Open and T-3rd China Open. also was better than Levy their last three tourneys. Levy WON Trophee Hassan. I think BOTH are worth a "to win" "sprinkle" @ 300-1 :shake:
 
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OOPS!!! Danny Willett jumps to +145 over Haotong Li @ Westgate. definitely worth a "sprinkle" now :)
 
I am still considering a play on Fox over Haas... I like the play Rat... Best of luck this week!

@Tim best of luck to you as well this week!
 
a couple of "tack ons" I decided to hit

Alex Noren +155 over Paul Casey
Rafael Cabrera-Bello -110 over Brandt Snedeker

Noren T-3rd BMW PGA [-14] T-23rd Italian Open [-12] T-17th Players [-10]
Casey T-20th BMW PGA [-7] T-5th Wells Fargo [-7] CUT RBC (Casey seemed to be having back problems @ BMW PGA) did WIN this season @ Valspar in March

Rafa 4th Italian Open [-18] T-8th BMW PGA [-10] T-17th Players [-10] T-3rd WGC-Mexico [-15]
Snedeker T-6th FedEx-St Jude [-7] T-42nd Colonial [-4] CUT Byron Nelson CUT Players

STILL looking at "The Mole" tourney match plays BUT the ones I like are over priced :confused:
 
I cannot get any info on an update with Casey's back issue. Really worried about Noren's history in the US Open though. Four missed cuts out of five. The one he made the cut in he was 51st... Obviously no complaints about the price you are getting...
 
looks like I am gonna get a "bad beat" Rafael Cabrera-Bello -110 over Brandt Snedeker match with the 36 hole CUT coming @ [+8] instead of [+7] Rafa was [+4] after the 2nd round and Snedeker [+8] BUT Rafa shoots [+6] for tourney [+10] Saturday vs Snedeker [+3] for [+11] so NOW I have to sweat Sunday

same with Ryan Fox +170 [+5] over Bill Haas [+8] Friday. Fox [+4] for [+9] with Haas [+4] for [+12] Saturday. . also Alex Noren was [+4] over Paul Casey [+6] Friday but NOW Alex two back with [+7] for [+11] vs [+3] for [+9]. the whole damn tourney has been a shit show for me :shitstorm:
 
Yeah terrible tournament for me gambling wise. I wanted to fade Els and I was right, just the guy he was matched up with played even worse. Faded Tiger and was right, but did so with Rahm. Huge disappointment with Rahm this week. I zigged when I should have zagged. I apologize to anyone who tailed my plays...

So disappointed with Phil. Disappointed with the usga... guys worked hard to get into a good position the first two days only to have zero chance to score in the late afternoon. That was not us open nerves today.... That was two different golf courses.
 
we should have ALL just tailed Andy this week, RBT. he and sacker go 6-1 this week with these >>>

Henrik Stenson [even/+1] ov Jordan Spieth [+1/+9] CUT WIN
Patrick Reed [+2/+5] ov Sergio Garcia [+9/+14] CUT WIN
Jimmy Walker [even/+5] ov Kyle Stanley [+9/+14] CUT WIN
Shane Lowry [+9/+14] CUT ov Aaron Wise [+4/+11] CUT lose
Ian Poulter [+2/+1] ov Luke List [+7/+12] CUT WIN
Kiradech Aphibrnrat [+2/+8] ov Cameron Smith [+2/+11] CUT WIN
Charles Howell III [+2/+12] ov Kevin Chappell [+7/+22] WIN

as I feared Ryan Fox screwed up on Sunday with [+5] for tourney [+14] vs Bill Hass [+1] for [+13] LOSE and Noren [+1] for [+12] LOSE vs Casey [+1] for [+10]. at least Rafa [+3] for [+13] held off Snedeker [+5] for [+16] WIN. I go 4-3 for the week AND WIN a group bet with "The Matthew Mouse" Fitzpatrick +250 over An, Wise and Uihlein which "gets my bait back from Rahm and Molinari group LOSE :confused:

the burning question for me is WHY does my boy Tommy Fleetwood have to shoot a damn [+8] Saturday ??? "Cocker Tommy" comes back with a Johnny Miller style [-7] and is in the clubhouse with a tourney [+2] one behind Brooks Koepka who is [-2] for [+1] thru #15. either one gets me back a DIME "to win" bet :pray:
 
I went 0-5 this week... I need to stick with being more selective. My hat is off to Andy and Sacker... Well done this week.
 
I went 0-5 this week... I need to stick with being more selective. My hat is off to Andy and Sacker... Well done this week.

VERY unusual for you, RBTrojan. I will be interested to see WHO plays in Travelers PGA event and the BMW International in Germany next week. I am sure a LOT of US Open high finish players will skip both esp with three Rolex Series "big bucks" Euro Tour tourneys coming up with the Open de France, which is being played on this years Ryder Cup Le Golf National course, Irish Open and Scottish Open leading into the British Open at Carnoustie Golf Links in Scotland :shake:
 
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