US Masters

Alan Tongue

Alan Tongue

Pretty much a regular
Never too early. The Masters is the “easiest” of the 4 Majors, due to the fact it is played at Augusta every year and there is plenty of exposed form and trends. Not to mention the field is generally only around 90-100 and you can put automatically put the pen through about 20 of them.

With World Rankings not being affected by years end we can get a good idea of the field. The following will be getting invites, with tournament winners between now and the Houston Open, as well as Top 50 players as at the end of March, to be added. Because of the trends, exposed form and current invites, we can get some nice early prices (especially if you can get Top 5 and Top 10 early)

The current invite list is at 90.

[TABLE="width: 140"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Jordan Spieth
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rory McIlroy
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jason Day
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bubba Watson
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rickie Fowler
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Justin Rose
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dustin Johnson
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Adam Scott
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Patrick Reed
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Henrik Stenson
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Phil Mickelson
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hideki Matsuyama
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brooks Koepka
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Paul Casey
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sergio Garcia
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Louis Oosthuizen
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Zach Johnson
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Branden Grace
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jim Furyk
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jimmy Walker
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Charl Schwartzel
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Matt Kuchar
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brandt Snedeker
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Justin Thomas
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tiger Woods
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Marc Leishman
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kevin Kisner
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Byeong-Hun An
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Emiliano Grillo
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Charley Hoffman
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bill Haas
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]JB Holmes
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Shane Lowry
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Russell Knox
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lee Westwood
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ian Poulter
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Danny Willett
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kevin Na
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Andy Sullivan
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan Moore
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Victor Dubuisson
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Keegan Bradley
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Graeme McDowell
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Steven Bowditch
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dan Berger
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bernd Wiesberger
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Danny Lee
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hunter Mahan
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Chris Kirk
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jamie Donaldson
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Billy Horschel
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Matthew Fitzpatrick
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]David Lingmerth
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cameron Smith
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Harris English
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kevin Streelman
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Martin Kaymer
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kiradech Aphibarnrat
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Anirban Lahiri
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Scott Piercy
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Robert Streb
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Smylie Kaufman
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Webb Simpson
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Troy Merritt
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sang-Moon Bae
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jason Dufner
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Chris Wood
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fabian Gomez
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Angel Cabrera
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ernie Els
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bryson Dechambeau
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Thongchai Jaidee
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Soren Kjeldsen
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Davis Love III
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vijay Singh
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Darren Clarke
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jin Cheng
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bernhard Langer
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fred Couples
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Romain Langasque
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Derek Bard
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sammy Schmitz
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mike Weir
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mark O'Meara
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jose Maria Olazabal
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Trevor Immelman
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tom Watson
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sandy Lyle
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Larry Mize
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ian Woosnam
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
The rules I follow I stick to. Sure there are exceptions (Spieth in nearly every category last year), but if they are followed you are ahead.
Firstly, it’s hard to go back to back. It’s only been done 3 times – Jack 65-66, Faldo 89-90 and Eldrick 01-02. There’s a lot of 6/1 – 7/1 available on Speith. Cannot have that at all. Sure he has finished 1[SUP]st[/SUP] and 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] the past 2 years, but the price isn’t there. This time last year he was more than double the price and was off back-to-back tournament wins. There is a lot do in Masters week – media, hosting, etc. – and many champs have said it is draining (Bubba L4Y - 1st-50th-1st-38th). For this reason I cannot have the lad.
Course experience is the key. Guys like Phil, Fred Couples, Angel Carbrera, Miguel Angel Jimenez pop up every year. Lee Westwood has 4 top 10's the last 6 years. Over the past 35 years the average first time winner has played the event at least 6 times. Schwarzel and Zach Johnson won on their third and Spieth his second. I prefer to look for guys playing at least their fifth.

While course experience is key, previous years form isn't. Only half of the last 12 winners finished in the top 10 the previous year. All 11 previous winners, however, have made the previous year’s cut, 8 of the past 11 winners had shot 67 or better at least once, 23 of the last 25 had shot in the 60's. Additionally, all previous 11 winners had finished in the top 32 at some time.

Augusta is long, and looking at some of the winners many think length is the key. If that was the case then Henrik Stenson and Dustin Johnson will have more than 1 top 10 between them, and Miguel Angel Jimenez wouldn't have 4. The fairways are generous, and putting and scrambling are key. Where length plays a part is in the par 5's that decide it. Zach Johnson was 57th in driving distance, but top 10 in Par 5's. He went -11 on the Par 5's, +12 on the Par 3's. Phil went -13 on the 5's and +6 on the 3's in one of his wins. Last year Speith went -12 on Par 5's. The past 12 years the winners score has been
Par 3s -1
Par 4s -25
Par5s -102
Nearly every player this century has finished top 10 in GIR. The average position is around 6.7. This is last year’s top 10 and where they finished in GIR
[TABLE="width: 243"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Jordan Spieth
[/TD]
[TD]2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Phil Mickelson
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Justin Rose
[/TD]
[TD]2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rory McIlroy
[/TD]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hideki Matsuyama
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Paul Casey
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ian Poulter
[/TD]
[TD]1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dustin Johnson
[/TD]
[TD]49
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hunter Mahan
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Zach Johnson
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Charley Hoffman
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


Next is guys who won are winners. All had at least 3 wins on the US or Euro Tour before they won, and all had won once in the preceding 12 months. Over the past 7 years, only Spieth and Bubba won in that calendar year.

Next is nationality of winner. Since 1991, the Masters has been won by Europeans only three time – Langer in 94, Faldo in 96 and Olazabal in 1999. So not one winner this century. Australians don’t win either, Scott in 2013 the only winner. Stick with Americans, or even South Africans.
 
The following list is those that finished in the top 50 on Tour last season in Par 5 scoring and GIR, and also made the cut

[TABLE="width: 332"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Player
[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Par 5
[/TD]
[TD]GIR
[/TD]
[TD]2015 Masters
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Adam Scott
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]16
[/TD]
[TD]T38
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Alex Prugh
[/TD]
[TD]28
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD]#N/A
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Brendan Steele
[/TD]
[TD]28
[/TD]
[TD]40
[/TD]
[TD]#N/A
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Brooks Koepka
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]17
[/TD]
[TD]#N/A
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Bubba Watson
[/TD]
[TD]1
[/TD]
[TD]19
[/TD]
[TD]T38
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Chad Campbell
[/TD]
[TD]28
[/TD]
[TD]35
[/TD]
[TD]#N/A
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Charles Howell III
[/TD]
[TD]24
[/TD]
[TD]38
[/TD]
[TD]#N/A
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Daniel Berger
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]30
[/TD]
[TD]#N/A
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Graham DeLaet
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]22
[/TD]
[TD]#N/A
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Henrik Stenson
[/TD]
[TD]40
[/TD]
[TD]1
[/TD]
[TD]T19
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Hideki Matsuyama
[/TD]
[TD]24
[/TD]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD]#N/A
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Hudson Swafford
[/TD]
[TD]28
[/TD]
[TD]39
[/TD]
[TD]#N/A
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Jason Day
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]#N/A
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Jordan Spieth
[/TD]
[TD]19
[/TD]
[TD]49
[/TD]
[TD]1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Justin Rose
[/TD]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]#N/A
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Justin Thomas
[/TD]
[TD]2
[/TD]
[TD]27
[/TD]
[TD]#N/A
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Louis Oosthuizen
[/TD]
[TD]28
[/TD]
[TD]43
[/TD]
[TD]T19
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Paul Casey
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]#N/A
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Shawn Stefani
[/TD]
[TD]24
[/TD]
[TD]32
[/TD]
[TD]#N/A
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Zach Johnson
[/TD]
[TD]28
[/TD]
[TD]37
[/TD]
[TD]T9
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


From that list we can make a shortlist of Adam Scott, Bubba Watson, Henrik Stenson, Jordan Spieth, Louis Oosthuizen and Zach Johnson. From my criteria I remove the defending champion. Scott, Stenson and Oosthuizen have not won on a major tour in the past 12 months. That leaves Bubba and Zach as the early bets – Bubba 16/1 and Zach 80/1

A few weeks out I can revisit this all again, and see who is ranked high in Par 5 scoring and GIR for the season, as well as tournament winners
 
Do you factor weather in at all?

I mean by that, the few weird years with really cold temps versus the nice, lush 70's to 80's years we see more often than not?
 
If Bubba wins, that is 7 outta 14 years a lefty has won.

If Zach wins, that takes him up to next level with 3 majors.
 
B.A.R. said:
Do you factor weather in at all?

I mean by that, the few weird years with really cold temps versus the nice, lush 70's to 80's years we see more often than not?
Click to expand...

just in the way the course plays. Last year, for example, was really soft and that is why Spieth shot so low. A guy like Rory struggles on really fast greens and its no coincidence the softer, slower greens last year gave him his best finish
 
B.A.R. said:
If Bubba wins, that is 7 outta 14 years a lefty has won.

If Zach wins, that takes him up to next level with 3 majors.
Click to expand...

Course shapes well for lefties.

I actually like Zach this week as well. He has changed clubs and this is his first tournament with them. Not sure the quality of them, its those clubs the guy from Godaddy is producing (p90X or something)
 
Alan Tongue said:
Course shapes well for lefties.

I actually like Zach this week as well. He has changed clubs and this is his first tournament with them. Not sure the quality of them, its those clubs the guy from Godaddy is producing (p90X or something)
Click to expand...


Yeah, it sure does.

Didn't know that about Zach. I am just starting to get involved for this year studying. I think it will be another terrific year.
 
i Really like Bubba and I am hearing here in Nashville that Sneads is really getting things going w/ Butch (then again who doesn't with Butch)
 
Updating the 3rd post with stats for the current season

[TABLE="width: 350"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]PAR 5[/TD]
[TD]GIR[/TD]
[TD]2015 MASTERS[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Adam Scott[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brendan Steele[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]31[/TD]
[TD]N/A[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bubba Watson[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Danny Willett[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]20[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dustin Johnson[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]45[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fabian Gomez[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]33[/TD]
[TD]N/A[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Henrik Stenson[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]26[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hideki Matsuyama[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]36[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13[/TD]
[TD]N/A[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jason Dufner[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]44[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]35[/TD]
[TD]49[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jhonattan Vegas[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]44[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9[/TD]
[TD]N/A[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jim Herman[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]44[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]41[/TD]
[TD]N/A[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Johnson Wagner[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]36[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD]N/A[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Justin Rose[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]32[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kevin Kisner[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]27[/TD]
[TD]N/A[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kyle Reifers[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]30[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]43[/TD]
[TD]N/A[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nick Watney[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]44[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15[/TD]
[TD]N/A[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Patrick Rodgers[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29[/TD]
[TD]N/A[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rickie Fowler[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rory McIlroy[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]35[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan Palmer[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]42[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sergio Garcia[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]30[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Smylie Kaufman[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]45[/TD]
[TD]N/A[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Zach Johnson[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]36[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]25[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Removing some of the filters it leaves us with
[TABLE="width: 126"]
<colgroup><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]Adam Scott[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bubba Watson[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dustin Johnson[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Henrik Stenson[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Justin Rose[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rickie Fowler[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rory McIlroy[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sergio Garcia[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Zach Johnson[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Bubba, Sergio and Stenson scrambling and putting this season is horrendous, and Zach's isn't too great. Dustin's final day meltdowns have me worried and until he proves he can win I'd want more than double the current price

Final four one week out are
[TABLE="width: 126"]
<colgroup><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]Adam Scott[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Justin Rose[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rickie Fowler[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rory McIlroy[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

If the rain comes I really, really like Rory
 
This is some good stuff...might get into throwing a little money around with golf this year with write-ups like this. :popcorn:
 
I will be there Tues for practice round. I'm with a golf writer friend of mine that comes down from New York and goes to all majors. If I here anything will pass on.
 
Alan Tongue said:
Course shapes well for lefties.

I actually like Zach this week as well. He has changed clubs and this is his first tournament with them. Not sure the quality of them, its those clubs the guy from Godaddy is producing (p90X or something)
Click to expand...

Club brand is PXG. Kind of a boutique club manufacturer that is trying to go more mainstream
 
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