NBA Money Line Upset Alert: Miami To Feel The Heat In Brooklyn
Miami vs Brooklyn
Sunday, December 1, 2019 at 3 p.m. ET at Barclays Center in Brooklyn
Brooklyn’s Injuries
Normally, Brooklyn is a team that runs a lot of iso plays.
Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert are the two primary players who these isos are designed for. Both, however, are injured.
Shift In Identity
With Irving and LeVert not playing, the Nets lost their reason to run so many iso plays. So they shifted emphasis based on the skill set of their healthy personnel.
As a team, the Nets now attempt a ton of threes. Currently, they average the sixth-most attempts per game and they promise to keep rising in this ranking.
In order to generate open looks, ball movement is key. Brooklyn has to dribble a lot more than it used to and move the ball from side to side in order to shift the defense.
Predicting Brooklyn’s Offensive Success
Brooklyn’s offense involves a relentless spatial negotiation with the opponent where they try to work for open three-point attempts.
So, Brooklyn does best against the teams that are poorest at preventing open looks where the nearest defender is at least four feet away from the three-point shooter.
Without Irving, the Nets have won four games at home — against Indiana, Charlotte, Sacramento, and Boston, Three of those teams are among the 10 worst teams at allowing open threes.
I specify home games because teams reliably shoot better at home — in the venue that is most familiar to them.
In Brooklyn’s case, the home/road disparity is relatively marked. The Nets convert 39 percent of their three-point attempts at home versus 31.5 percent on the road.
Miami’s Poor Perimeter Defense
The Nets match up well against Miami’s defense because Miami allows the second-highest frequency of open threes.
One might counter that Miami ranks strongly in opposing three-point percentage.
But this statistic can be misleading. In Miami’s case, it is largely luck.
Defensively, teams can only defend threes by trying to contest them. So they have no control over how well opponents convert uncontested three-point attempts.
The Heat have benefitted from opponents converting the NBA’s lowest rate of open threes.
Key Players For Brooklyn
Joe Harris will be key today. He’s Brooklyn’s most efficient three-point shooter — currently, he’s converting 43.3 percent of his three-point attempts. He’s arguably also the NBA’s most reliable shooter.
He’s adept at getting open — no matter the opponent — primarily by utilizing screens. He loses his defender by curling around a screener to gain space. He also excels in transition opportunities.
Taurean Waller-Prince is Brooklyn’s other key player. Like Harris, he attempts over six threes per game and converts over 40 percent of his attempts.
Miami’s Offense: Home Versus Away
Miami is not the same team at home as it is on the road.
At home, the Heat consistently outperform oddsmakers’ expectations as they are 7-0-1 ATS. On the road, the Heat are 5-4-1 ATS.
Offense is the biggest reason for this disparity. The Heat average 118.8 points at home compared to 105.7 on the road.
As is the case with Brooklyn, three-point shooting success is largely a matter of venue. In Miami, the Heat shoot 44% from three. On the road, they shoot 35.8% from three.
The importance of playing at home might seem obvious. Plus, oddsmakers already account for whether a team plays at home or on the road.
But venue is worth emphasizing above all in the Heat’s case because oddsmakers don’t account for it strongly enough.
No other NBA team has such a large disparity in three-point shooting percentage at home versus on the road as Miami.
Contrasting Offensive Quality
Miami likes to run a lot of pick and roll to separate the ball-handler from his defender and give him more freedom in attack.
But the Heat don’t do this very well — they rank 10th-to-last in PPP (points per possession) in this play type.
In contrast, the Nets’ three-point percentage at home would place them third overall in the three-point efficiency.
So, Brooklyn will be better at executing what it likes to do offensively — especially against Miami’s poor perimeter defense.
Best Bet: Nets ML at +140 odds with 5Dimes
Miami vs Brooklyn
Sunday, December 1, 2019 at 3 p.m. ET at Barclays Center in Brooklyn
Brooklyn’s Injuries
Normally, Brooklyn is a team that runs a lot of iso plays.
Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert are the two primary players who these isos are designed for. Both, however, are injured.
Shift In Identity
With Irving and LeVert not playing, the Nets lost their reason to run so many iso plays. So they shifted emphasis based on the skill set of their healthy personnel.
As a team, the Nets now attempt a ton of threes. Currently, they average the sixth-most attempts per game and they promise to keep rising in this ranking.
In order to generate open looks, ball movement is key. Brooklyn has to dribble a lot more than it used to and move the ball from side to side in order to shift the defense.
Predicting Brooklyn’s Offensive Success
Brooklyn’s offense involves a relentless spatial negotiation with the opponent where they try to work for open three-point attempts.
So, Brooklyn does best against the teams that are poorest at preventing open looks where the nearest defender is at least four feet away from the three-point shooter.
Without Irving, the Nets have won four games at home — against Indiana, Charlotte, Sacramento, and Boston, Three of those teams are among the 10 worst teams at allowing open threes.
I specify home games because teams reliably shoot better at home — in the venue that is most familiar to them.
In Brooklyn’s case, the home/road disparity is relatively marked. The Nets convert 39 percent of their three-point attempts at home versus 31.5 percent on the road.
Miami’s Poor Perimeter Defense
The Nets match up well against Miami’s defense because Miami allows the second-highest frequency of open threes.
One might counter that Miami ranks strongly in opposing three-point percentage.
But this statistic can be misleading. In Miami’s case, it is largely luck.
Defensively, teams can only defend threes by trying to contest them. So they have no control over how well opponents convert uncontested three-point attempts.
The Heat have benefitted from opponents converting the NBA’s lowest rate of open threes.
Key Players For Brooklyn
Joe Harris will be key today. He’s Brooklyn’s most efficient three-point shooter — currently, he’s converting 43.3 percent of his three-point attempts. He’s arguably also the NBA’s most reliable shooter.
He’s adept at getting open — no matter the opponent — primarily by utilizing screens. He loses his defender by curling around a screener to gain space. He also excels in transition opportunities.
Taurean Waller-Prince is Brooklyn’s other key player. Like Harris, he attempts over six threes per game and converts over 40 percent of his attempts.
Miami’s Offense: Home Versus Away
Miami is not the same team at home as it is on the road.
At home, the Heat consistently outperform oddsmakers’ expectations as they are 7-0-1 ATS. On the road, the Heat are 5-4-1 ATS.
Offense is the biggest reason for this disparity. The Heat average 118.8 points at home compared to 105.7 on the road.
As is the case with Brooklyn, three-point shooting success is largely a matter of venue. In Miami, the Heat shoot 44% from three. On the road, they shoot 35.8% from three.
The importance of playing at home might seem obvious. Plus, oddsmakers already account for whether a team plays at home or on the road.
But venue is worth emphasizing above all in the Heat’s case because oddsmakers don’t account for it strongly enough.
No other NBA team has such a large disparity in three-point shooting percentage at home versus on the road as Miami.
Contrasting Offensive Quality
Miami likes to run a lot of pick and roll to separate the ball-handler from his defender and give him more freedom in attack.
But the Heat don’t do this very well — they rank 10th-to-last in PPP (points per possession) in this play type.
In contrast, the Nets’ three-point percentage at home would place them third overall in the three-point efficiency.
So, Brooklyn will be better at executing what it likes to do offensively — especially against Miami’s poor perimeter defense.
Best Bet: Nets ML at +140 odds with 5Dimes
