NBA Money Line Upset Alert: Expect The Knicks To Nick The Nets
Brooklyn vs New York
Sunday, November 24, 2019 at 6 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden
Brooklyn Loses Its Identity
The losses of Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert to injury are significant in multiple ways.
Based on raw numbers, Irving led the Nets both with 28.5 points and 7.2 assists per game. LeVert was Brooklyn’s third-leading scorer with 16.8 points per game.
In terms of style and identity, Brooklyn now has to shift what it likes to do offensively.
Brooklyn had run iso plays with one of the highest frequencies and Irving was one specific reason and LeVert another.
Without either player, there isn’t really anyone left who iso plays can be drawn up for.
Brooklyn Has To Become Something It’s Not
Now, all of a sudden, Brooklyn has to become a team that dribbles a lot, passes a lot, and shoots a lot of threes.
Stated differently, the Nets have to go from relying primarily on Irving and LeVert for points to relying on Joe Harris and Taurean Prince.
Harris is the only one on the team who ranks top-50 in three-point percentage. Collectively, the Nets rank 22nd in three-point percentage.
This last stat means that the Nets have had to become a certain kind of offense that they’re comparatively poor at executing.
New York Matches Up Well Offensively
Oddsmakers should not have Brooklyn favored. They are not accounting for match-up specific details.
Offensively, the Knicks love to post up — they do so with the NBA’s fourth-highest frequency. Brooklyn, however, allows the ninth-most PPP (points per possession) as a team when guarding the post-up.
Brooklyn has faced three teams that rank top-10 in post-up frequency. It lost straight-up as the favored team to both Memphis and Detroit while it lost and failed to cover the spread against Denver.
Whereas the Knicks rank fourth in post-up frequency. Memphis ranks sixth, Detroit ranks ninth, and Denver ranks fifth.
Julius Randle and Bobby Portis Make A Difference
So expect power forwards Julius Randle and Bobby Portis to thrive for the Knicks today. Both are two of the team’s top-five leading scorers — Randle is the second and Portis the fifth.
In particular, Randle’s post moves are a pleasure to watch. He can take the ball at the high post and employ a mixture of dribbling and hesitation to either power or shift his way to the basket.
Portis also enjoys a varied skill set and rich repertoire of moves in front of the basket with a body ideal for sealing his defender and also the footwork ideal for creating separation from him.
While it’s true that the Nets have won their past two games without Kyrie, they beat a Charlotte team that very rarely posts up and a Sacramento team that has done a bit more posting up, but is beleaguered with crucial injuries.
Match-up wise, the Knicks are a different beast.
Conclusion
Whereas Brooklyn lacks the personnel to do what it wants to do offensively — which is run iso plays, which suit the top talent on its team — the Knicks can do what they like to do, which is post-up.
They can post-up well against a Brooklyn team that defends the post-up poorly. Season history already shows that Brooklyn’s defensive weakness is decisive for game results.
Best Bet: Knicks ML at +120 odds with 5Dimes
Brooklyn vs New York
Sunday, November 24, 2019 at 6 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden
Brooklyn Loses Its Identity
The losses of Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert to injury are significant in multiple ways.
Based on raw numbers, Irving led the Nets both with 28.5 points and 7.2 assists per game. LeVert was Brooklyn’s third-leading scorer with 16.8 points per game.
In terms of style and identity, Brooklyn now has to shift what it likes to do offensively.
Brooklyn had run iso plays with one of the highest frequencies and Irving was one specific reason and LeVert another.
Without either player, there isn’t really anyone left who iso plays can be drawn up for.
Brooklyn Has To Become Something It’s Not
Now, all of a sudden, Brooklyn has to become a team that dribbles a lot, passes a lot, and shoots a lot of threes.
Stated differently, the Nets have to go from relying primarily on Irving and LeVert for points to relying on Joe Harris and Taurean Prince.
Harris is the only one on the team who ranks top-50 in three-point percentage. Collectively, the Nets rank 22nd in three-point percentage.
This last stat means that the Nets have had to become a certain kind of offense that they’re comparatively poor at executing.
New York Matches Up Well Offensively
Oddsmakers should not have Brooklyn favored. They are not accounting for match-up specific details.
Offensively, the Knicks love to post up — they do so with the NBA’s fourth-highest frequency. Brooklyn, however, allows the ninth-most PPP (points per possession) as a team when guarding the post-up.
Brooklyn has faced three teams that rank top-10 in post-up frequency. It lost straight-up as the favored team to both Memphis and Detroit while it lost and failed to cover the spread against Denver.
Whereas the Knicks rank fourth in post-up frequency. Memphis ranks sixth, Detroit ranks ninth, and Denver ranks fifth.
Julius Randle and Bobby Portis Make A Difference
So expect power forwards Julius Randle and Bobby Portis to thrive for the Knicks today. Both are two of the team’s top-five leading scorers — Randle is the second and Portis the fifth.
In particular, Randle’s post moves are a pleasure to watch. He can take the ball at the high post and employ a mixture of dribbling and hesitation to either power or shift his way to the basket.
Portis also enjoys a varied skill set and rich repertoire of moves in front of the basket with a body ideal for sealing his defender and also the footwork ideal for creating separation from him.
While it’s true that the Nets have won their past two games without Kyrie, they beat a Charlotte team that very rarely posts up and a Sacramento team that has done a bit more posting up, but is beleaguered with crucial injuries.
Match-up wise, the Knicks are a different beast.
Conclusion
Whereas Brooklyn lacks the personnel to do what it wants to do offensively — which is run iso plays, which suit the top talent on its team — the Knicks can do what they like to do, which is post-up.
They can post-up well against a Brooklyn team that defends the post-up poorly. Season history already shows that Brooklyn’s defensive weakness is decisive for game results.
Best Bet: Knicks ML at +120 odds with 5Dimes
