Week 10 Upset Alert
Spice up your Saturday with this triple pack of ML dogs.
Wyoming (5-3) hosts rival Colorado State (6-3) Saturday at 7:00 PM ET. In the 109th battle for the Bronze Boot, Wyoming is a three point underdog.
The hype has faded from Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen, who at the end of last season was touted as a top-10 pick. But the decline in passing numbers is not his fault. Wyoming lost its top two running backs and top three wide receivers.
The faded hype creates betting value for Wyoming. Against weaker secondaries, Allen does not suffer so much from the loss of surrounding talent. He is an elite playmaker who can buy time to pass with his legs and use his arm strength and accuracy to fit passes into tight windows on any part of the field.
Allen's greatest flaw is his overconfidence. Especially against strong secondaries, he'll force balls into windows that are too tight and get intercepted. 4 of his 6 interceptions came against top-50 secondaries. His recent surge in performance stems both from facing weaker competition and from the return of top receiver James Price, who finally gives Allen a weapon with the speed and acceleration to quickly separate himself from defensive backs and the body ability to make difficult catches.
Colorado State ranks 96th in opposing quarterback rating and does not force many interceptions. Against FBS opponents, Wyoming is 3-0 ATS when Allen does not throw an interception and 3-0 ATS when Allen throws for 200+ yards.
The Rams counter with a prolific passing attack of their own, led by quarterback Nick Stevens and Michael Gallup. Stevens ranks third among FBS quarterbacks in passing yards, Gallup leads FBS receivers in passing yards.
Wyoming's 24th-ranked pass defense, in terms of opposing QB rating, can slow down Stevens and Gallup. Experience is crucial for the improvement of a secondary and Wyoming returns its entire secondary from last year. The Cowboys' biggest test was in Oregon QB Justin Herbert, who had his worst performance, in terms of QB rating, in Wyoming. Mountain West All-American safety Andrew Wingard leads the team with 77 tackles and, with cornerback Rico Gafford, 4 interceptions.
Interceptions are a problem for Stevens, who, unlike Allen, throws many even against weaker secondaries. 5 of Stevens' 9 interceptions this season have come against secondaries which rank outside the top 50. Wyoming ranks 3rd in forcing 1.9 interceptions per game.
The Verdict
Allen is the quarterback with the greater skill set, who navigates the tighter aerial spaces where Stevens is more likely to flounder. But Colorado State has more talent at wide receiver and consequently a more vertical passing game. Wyoming's secondary boasts more experience and proven ability and excels at forcing turnovers, while Stevens struggles more than Allen with throwing interceptions. In an even match-up, the home team is catching points. Wyoming, due to its elevation, is a difficult place to play in. The Cowboys are on a 12-2 ATS run at home.
NCAAF Pick: Wyoming +3
Virginia (5-3) hosts Georgia Tech (4-3) Saturday at 3 PM ET. Georgia Tech is favored by 10 points.
Sometimes games don’t play out the way that they apparently should on paper. The more talented team does not always cover.
Georgia Tech's team carries the mentality of having something to prove. As a result, they mentally invest more into games against rank opponents and then struggle to derive motivation in their next game against an unranked opponent.
Dating back to 2016, Georgia Tech is 0-3 ATS in the first half against an unranked underdog after having just played a ranked opponent the week before. Two of those teams, Virginia last year and Wake Forest this year, even led at half time. FCS Jacksonville State led 7-3, until Georgia Tech took the lead at the very end of the first half.
In those games, Georgia Tech ended up dominating the second half. The Yellow Jackets are more talented than each of those teams. But their lack of motivation was apparent in the first half and there have been no exceptions to this psychological trend since the Jackets became resurgent in 2016.
NCAAF Pick: Virginia 1H +6
Iowa (5-3) hosts No. 6 Ohio State (7-1) Saturday at 3:30 PM ET on ESPN. The Buckeyes are favored by 18 points.
Emotionally speaking, Ohio State is in a dangerous spot. They are due for a let-down after having achieved a massive comeback in order to defeat then-No. 2 Penn State at home. It will be easy for them to be complacent against a vastly lesser-ranked opponent.
Iowa has earned the reputation of being a spoiler. They had won 3 games in a row at home vs top-5 opponents until Penn State beat them on the last play of their September affair. The key to Iowa's success has been to ramp up the defensive intensity: dating back to 2015, Iowa has held its last 4 top-10 opponents to 21 points or fewer at home. The look for Ohio State will also be intense, who will behold a raucous stadium draped in blackout gear.
Josey Jewell, one of the top-ranked inside linebackers, is Iowa's defensive leader. Jewell tends to have his best games against top competition. Against Penn State, for example, he achieved 16 tackles and an interception. Jewell's high football IQ allows him to quickly recognize the offensive play. He is then a menace in pursuit because of his explosiveness towards the ball and his ability to shed blockers.
Offensively, Iowa possesses a balanced attack with quarterback Nathan Stanley, who has only thrown 4 interceptions in 228 attempts, and running back Akrum Wadley, whose speed, elusiveness and big-play ability in the open field makes him NFL-caliber.
Iowa has the tools for a major upset: home field on primetime with nothing to lose, an opponent ripe for emotional let-down, senior leadership on defense, and efficiency, balance and big-play ability on offense.
NCAAF Pick: Iowa +18
Spice up your Saturday with this triple pack of ML dogs.
Wyoming (5-3) hosts rival Colorado State (6-3) Saturday at 7:00 PM ET. In the 109th battle for the Bronze Boot, Wyoming is a three point underdog.
The hype has faded from Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen, who at the end of last season was touted as a top-10 pick. But the decline in passing numbers is not his fault. Wyoming lost its top two running backs and top three wide receivers.
The faded hype creates betting value for Wyoming. Against weaker secondaries, Allen does not suffer so much from the loss of surrounding talent. He is an elite playmaker who can buy time to pass with his legs and use his arm strength and accuracy to fit passes into tight windows on any part of the field.
Allen's greatest flaw is his overconfidence. Especially against strong secondaries, he'll force balls into windows that are too tight and get intercepted. 4 of his 6 interceptions came against top-50 secondaries. His recent surge in performance stems both from facing weaker competition and from the return of top receiver James Price, who finally gives Allen a weapon with the speed and acceleration to quickly separate himself from defensive backs and the body ability to make difficult catches.
Colorado State ranks 96th in opposing quarterback rating and does not force many interceptions. Against FBS opponents, Wyoming is 3-0 ATS when Allen does not throw an interception and 3-0 ATS when Allen throws for 200+ yards.
The Rams counter with a prolific passing attack of their own, led by quarterback Nick Stevens and Michael Gallup. Stevens ranks third among FBS quarterbacks in passing yards, Gallup leads FBS receivers in passing yards.
Wyoming's 24th-ranked pass defense, in terms of opposing QB rating, can slow down Stevens and Gallup. Experience is crucial for the improvement of a secondary and Wyoming returns its entire secondary from last year. The Cowboys' biggest test was in Oregon QB Justin Herbert, who had his worst performance, in terms of QB rating, in Wyoming. Mountain West All-American safety Andrew Wingard leads the team with 77 tackles and, with cornerback Rico Gafford, 4 interceptions.
Interceptions are a problem for Stevens, who, unlike Allen, throws many even against weaker secondaries. 5 of Stevens' 9 interceptions this season have come against secondaries which rank outside the top 50. Wyoming ranks 3rd in forcing 1.9 interceptions per game.
The Verdict
Allen is the quarterback with the greater skill set, who navigates the tighter aerial spaces where Stevens is more likely to flounder. But Colorado State has more talent at wide receiver and consequently a more vertical passing game. Wyoming's secondary boasts more experience and proven ability and excels at forcing turnovers, while Stevens struggles more than Allen with throwing interceptions. In an even match-up, the home team is catching points. Wyoming, due to its elevation, is a difficult place to play in. The Cowboys are on a 12-2 ATS run at home.
NCAAF Pick: Wyoming +3
Virginia (5-3) hosts Georgia Tech (4-3) Saturday at 3 PM ET. Georgia Tech is favored by 10 points.
Sometimes games don’t play out the way that they apparently should on paper. The more talented team does not always cover.
Georgia Tech's team carries the mentality of having something to prove. As a result, they mentally invest more into games against rank opponents and then struggle to derive motivation in their next game against an unranked opponent.
Dating back to 2016, Georgia Tech is 0-3 ATS in the first half against an unranked underdog after having just played a ranked opponent the week before. Two of those teams, Virginia last year and Wake Forest this year, even led at half time. FCS Jacksonville State led 7-3, until Georgia Tech took the lead at the very end of the first half.
In those games, Georgia Tech ended up dominating the second half. The Yellow Jackets are more talented than each of those teams. But their lack of motivation was apparent in the first half and there have been no exceptions to this psychological trend since the Jackets became resurgent in 2016.
NCAAF Pick: Virginia 1H +6
Iowa (5-3) hosts No. 6 Ohio State (7-1) Saturday at 3:30 PM ET on ESPN. The Buckeyes are favored by 18 points.
Emotionally speaking, Ohio State is in a dangerous spot. They are due for a let-down after having achieved a massive comeback in order to defeat then-No. 2 Penn State at home. It will be easy for them to be complacent against a vastly lesser-ranked opponent.
Iowa has earned the reputation of being a spoiler. They had won 3 games in a row at home vs top-5 opponents until Penn State beat them on the last play of their September affair. The key to Iowa's success has been to ramp up the defensive intensity: dating back to 2015, Iowa has held its last 4 top-10 opponents to 21 points or fewer at home. The look for Ohio State will also be intense, who will behold a raucous stadium draped in blackout gear.
Josey Jewell, one of the top-ranked inside linebackers, is Iowa's defensive leader. Jewell tends to have his best games against top competition. Against Penn State, for example, he achieved 16 tackles and an interception. Jewell's high football IQ allows him to quickly recognize the offensive play. He is then a menace in pursuit because of his explosiveness towards the ball and his ability to shed blockers.
Offensively, Iowa possesses a balanced attack with quarterback Nathan Stanley, who has only thrown 4 interceptions in 228 attempts, and running back Akrum Wadley, whose speed, elusiveness and big-play ability in the open field makes him NFL-caliber.
Iowa has the tools for a major upset: home field on primetime with nothing to lose, an opponent ripe for emotional let-down, senior leadership on defense, and efficiency, balance and big-play ability on offense.
NCAAF Pick: Iowa +18
Last edited:
