Batties was a great WR for them. Jordan Parker was their best running back (but you are right that the transfer could be big upgrade) They lost left side of OL, which was their best two offensive lineman. Lost all three impact linebackers. Combined for 25 tackles for loss and 8 sacks. Lost starting safeties and yeah I think Byard was best player on the team.
You make great points as always, but I see 4 fairly easy wins; A&M, North Texas, UTSA, Charlotte. Four games I'm pretty certain they lose, @Vandy, @BG, @Mizzou, and @Marshall. That leaves 4 remaining games; home to LT, WK, and Florida Atlantic and away to Florida International.
WKY- I think they have able bodies at QB to replace Doughty and have to replace WRs but have good running backs returning and the entire OL. Defense should be about the same. I think WKY is 3 point favorite on the road.
LT got hit hard. Have to see MTSU favored here.
I think Florida Atlantic is going to be improved, but have MTSU favored here.
Florida International should be improved on offense, but that defense concerns me. I have this one as a toss up at home.
So they go 2-2 in those games to get to 6-6 or 3-1 to get to 7-5. Maybe top end of 8-4? You do make some good points, maybe I'm a little lower on them than I should be.