UFC Vegas 66

[mrpickem]

The final show of 2022 and it's a solid Fight Night card. Should be quite entertaining.

 

[mrpickem]

Early Prelims:

• 4/1.30 SERGEY MOROZOV -307
• 2/3.00 SERGEY MOROZOV KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +150
• 3/1.48 MANEL KAPE -203
• 2/3.00 MANEL KAPE KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +150
• 3/2.01 RINAT FAKHRETDINOV vs BRYAN BATTLE o2½ -149

...Technically, Newson is solid, he proved it with a routine victory over Fernie Garcia. However, his durability isn't solid and will be hard to hide in this talent-rich division. Morozov cracks plenty hard to prove this theory. Likely in round 1.
...Kape is an athletic beast who's finally started to fight smarter and set traps before pulling the trigger. Starboy carries excellent power at this size, still he could be kept quiet under the unrelenting barrages from Dvorak. I however think he finds him and gets the finish.

...Fakhretdinov has power, but he generally relies on chain wrestling to win over the judges. Seems like a viable game plan against Battle, who's usually happy to work off his back. Boring most likely decision.

 

[mrpickem]

Prelims​

MAHESHATE(9-1) VS RAFA GARCIA(14-3) (155)

• Garcia Decision ...Garcia can match Maheshate’s early intensity and his chin is battle tested. If Maheshate can get a KO, we'll have a real talent on our hands. More likely is that Maheshate struggles with Garcia’s shrewd adaptability over 3 rounds.

SAID NURMAGOMEDOV(16-2) VS SAIDYOKUB KAKHRAMONOV(10-2) (135)

• Nurmagomedov ...Tough call will two huge prospects at Bantamweight. If Kakhramonov can work inside of Nurmagomedov’s kicks, he can cause the Dagestani real issues with heavy hands in the pocket. Said will be the first UFC opponent that can match Kakhramonov’s physicality. Kakhramonov may be set to go 0-2 against fighters named Nurmagomedov as UFC tries to weed out some of these Russians.

JAKE MATTHEWS(18-5) VS MATT SEMELSBERGER(170)

• Matthews ...Semelsberger, with all his improvements, still represents the exact fighter type that Matthews’ can style on. Matt carries early-round lights-out power but lacks the tools or traps to lead craftier opponents onto the knockout. Jake has decent defense and rarely walks himself onto blind shots. Matthews also has a wrestling outlet if he feels he needs to put his stamp on a round.

CHEYANNE VLISMAS VS CORY MCKENNA(115)

• Vlismas ...McKenna’s strength is technical wrestling, but she seems to prefer banging. even with limited boxing skills at this level. She was pieced apart by Elise Reed yet returned to winning ways with a second-round Von Flue choke over Miranda Granger. If McKenna insists on striking with Vlismas, she will struggle. Cheyanne is capable of finding her range and timing quickly.

 

[mrpickem]

[3-2 +0.79u]

• 2.48/1.5 Rafa Garcia -165
• 2/1.87 SAID NURMAGOMEDOV -107
• 1.69/1 (SAIDYOKUB KAKHRAMONOV vs SAID NURMAGOMEDOV) o2½ -169

 

[mrpickem]

[5-3 +2.47u]

• 4/1.35 JAKE MATTHEWS -297
• 1.26/2 CORY MCKENNA +159

Gonna flip to Cory in hopes she fights smarter and utilizes her wrestling chops...

 

[mrpickem]

UFC Wegas 66 - Main Card:​

CODY BRUNDAGE VS MICHAL OLEKSIEJCZUK (185)

• Oleksiejczuk Early KO ...Oleksiejczuk is an exceptional fighter that's flown under the radar so far. Even though his lone victory came against Sam Alvey, he carries his LHW power down with an extra edge of speed at 185. Brundage is a bulky wrestler who has been better at utilizing pop in his hands of late, but he will struggle to control Olek in exchanges because, with all his flaws, he still brings that 0-100mph approach in the octagon.

DREW DOBER VS BOBBY GREEN (155)

• Dober Decision ...Green owned his mistake during the build-up and offered a relatively believable excuse for unknowingly using an over-the-counter substance – so any athletic performance advantage is unlikely. Green remains one of the slickest counter-punchers in the division, but his high-risk defense and low output often leave him on the wrong end of decisions. Considering Dober’s unbreakable chin, he probably wins the judges over with his relentless work off the front foot.

ALEX CACERES VS JULIAN EROSA (145)

• Erosa ...Reborn since he started his 2nd UFC stint in 2020, Erosa appears to have pieced his game together better overall. A heavy-handed pressure fighter, he has enough cage-cutting know-how to keep Caceres locked in a striking war. It won’t be pretty, it never is with Erosa, but there should still be some fireworks between the two.

AMIR ALBAZI(15-1) VS ALESSANDRO COSTA(12-2) (125)

• Albazi ITD ...We deserve better match-ups featuring Albazi, the freak submission artist and explosive wrestler. Costa enters off the back of a twelve-second KO over Carlos Gomez for the Lux League Flyweight Championship two months ago. A little further back in the timeline, however, Costa barely scraped through his DWCS debut. Costa’s TDD isn’t on the level to keep this fight competitive for long. Poor match-making in this one, IMHO.

 

[mrpickem]

[6-4 +0.47u]

• 3/2.00 MICHAL OLEKSIEJCZUK KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -150
• 1.82/3 MICHAL OLEKSIEJCZUK IN ROUND 1 +165
• 1.20/6 MICHAL OLEKSIEJCZUK IN ROUND 2 +500
• 2/1.53 CODY BRUNDAGE vs MICHAL OLEKSIEJCZUK u1½ -131
• 2/1.17 BOBBY GREEN vs DREW DOBER o2½ -171
• 1.43/2 JULIAN EROSA DEC/TECH DEC +140
• 7.20/6 AMIR ALBAZI KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -120

 

[mrpickem]

[9-7 +8.37u]

• 2/1.06 ARMAN TSARUKYAN -189

Co-Main​

ARMAN TSARUKYAN(18-3) VS DAMIR ISMAGULOV(24-1) (155)

• Tsarukyan ...Ismagulov’s reach advantage, superb jab, and TDD will make Tsarukyan's night tough. If Arman can keep Damir pinned to the mat, it'll be a huge statement. Even Arman’s striking is mostly predictable single shots by the late rounds, he tends to have an advantage in speed early on. This stinks of a controversial split decision – shout-out to Paddy Pimblett. Toss-up, head...I'll back the Armenian.

 

[KJ]

Like that fella, seems to have "it" figured out

 

[DBURGH]

Thanks for the info and pics, have strangely become a big fan of the sport. Great for gambling.

 

[mrpickem]

Great fight, both of them dudes will beat 90% in their division

[10-7 +9.43u]

• 2.94/3 SEAN STRICKLAND +102
• 2/2.08 SEAN STRICKLAND vs JARED CANNONIER u4½ +104

Main Event​

JARED CANNONIER VS SEAN STRICKLAND (25-4) (185)

• Strickland ...After his first-round KO loss to Alex Pereira, Strickland has been the butt of ridicule, not least for his comedically shoddy pressure–broken high guard, zero entries on angles, pumping a consistent limp jab. Unfortunately, that wasn’t a one-off but instead has been the core of Strickland’s game since his UFC return in 2020. On the surface, you feel inclined to back Cannonier’s explosive bursts of power against a fighter who literally walks into it. However, don’t be surprised if Strickland’s relentless volume grits out a one-sided decision. Most fighters suffer a letdown after losing a title chance and since this is Jared's first after his dull decision loss to Izzy, he may not be at the top of his game. Strickland's striking while nothing fancy is usually fairly technical and as long as he avoids the big shot, he should get the better at standup and also has the advantage if it goes to the ground. I could even see a potential sub late if "The Killa Gorilla" tires at all.