UFC Vegas 63

[mrpickem]

Got killed last week for 20u after 4 straight winning weeks. The numbered events are generally much tougher bets...at least for me. Onto today weaker than usual card. Decent main otherwise not much exciting, but it does pay the same and a few look like potentially very good bets.

• 3.75/3 CHRISTIAN RODRIGUEZ KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -125 ...Weems won the Fury belt with his scary submission arsenal, but he's fearless on the feet as well. Being a late-notice fight, I think Weems will be urgent to fly out the blocks. Rodriguez’s powerful, sniping right straight will likely make Weems regret entering a standup war and make both their nights quite short.

• 3/4.20 CODY DURDEN +140
• 2/2.60 DURDEN vs MOTA o2½ +130 ...LFA FW champ Mota, makes his UFC debut on late notice. Mota is a ferocious striker with the ability and power to punish Durden’s aggression on the feet. However, Cody’s strong wrestling base and early starts seem the safer bet. Quite possibly we will see a less than 100% Mota fading down the stretch.

 

[mrpickem]

Results
3.75/3 CHRISTIAN RODRIGUEZ KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -125
3/4.20 CODY DURDEN +140
2/2.60 DURDEN vs MOTA o2½ +130

[3-0 +9.8u]

Next:

• 3/2.61 CHASE HOOPER KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -115 ...Garcia is a hyper-aggressive striker without the chin to back it up – not that there's any worry with Hooper’s woeful striking. More likely we see Garcia’s risk-taking on the feet allowing Hooper to wrap him up. The Mean Machine may own some devastating ground’n’pound but off his back, a Hooper submission should be expected.

• 2/4.50 JUN YONG PARK KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +225 ...What with Holmes struggles to utilize his reach and Park’s strong TDD, this may well be a bloody battle. Holmes carries pop in his punches but the Iron Turtle is very durable and adapts well in the pocket. Only poor decision-making will lead to the ground and Holmes preferred fighting style.

 

[skanless13]

Got killed last week for 20u after 4 straight winning weeks. The numbered events are generally much tougher bets...at least for me. Onto today weaker than usual card. Decent main otherwise not much exciting, but it does pay the same and a few look like potentially very good bets.

• 3.75/3 CHRISTIAN RODRIGUEZ KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -125 ...Weems won the Fury belt with his scary submission arsenal, but he's fearless on the feet as well. Being a late-notice fight, I think Weems will be urgent to fly out the blocks. Rodriguez’s powerful, sniping right straight will likely make Weems regret entering a standup war and make both their nights quite short.

• 3/4.20 CODY DURDEN +140
• 2/2.60 DURDEN vs MOTA o2½ +130 ...LFA FW champ Mota, makes his UFC debut on late notice. Mota is a ferocious striker with the ability and power to punish Durden’s aggression on the feet. However, Cody’s strong wrestling base and early starts seem the safer bet. Quite possibly we will see a less than 100% Mota fading down the stretch.

Why does she look familiar?

 

[mrpickem]

Why does she look familiar?

Laura Sanko

 

[mrpickem]

Results:
3.75/3 CHRISTIAN RODRIGUEZ KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -125
3/4.20 CODY DURDEN +140
2/2.60 DURDEN vs MOTA o2½ +130
3/2.61 CHASE HOOPER KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -115
2/4.50 JUN YONG PARK KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +225

[4-1 +11.3u]

Next:

• 2.46/5 Andrei Arlovski +203 ...Conservative and steady, Andrei lets his opponents unravel on the feet as they become increasingly desperate to break his guard. Collier’s hand speed exposed Arlovski’s age, with Rogerio de Lima falling also into the power category. De Lima does own a shock wrestling base to delve into when his hands fail, but alas...despite Arlovski’s physicality waning, he's still a nightmare to take down.

• 4/2.26 PHIL HAWES -177
• 2/2.02 DOLIDZE vs HAWES o2½ +101 ...After Dolidze's shocking early nuke of Kyle Daukus, he may try a similar bullying front-foot approach that could well see him eat a Phil Hawes bomb. The size difference may prove a major hurdle with such a plan, but No Hype managed to overcome the high-flying Imavov in a back-and-forth affair. If Hawes fails he may try his wrestling, Dolidze may be able to neutralize the match and stall out the clock.

 

[mrpickem]

Results
3.75/3 CHRISTIAN RODRIGUEZ KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -125
3/4.20 CODY DURDEN +140
2/2.60 DURDEN vs MOTA o2½ +130
3/2.61 CHASE HOOPER KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -115
2/4.50 JUN YONG PARK KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +225
2.46/5 Andrei Arlovski +203
4/2.26 PHIL HAWES -177
2/2.02 DOLIDZE vs HAWES o2½ +101

[4-4 +2.84u]

Next:

UFC Vegas 63: Main Card

• 3.54/2 DUSTIN JACOBY -177 ...Rountree’s furious aggression should definitely present windows for Jacoby to land powerful counters. No way of knowing what version of Rountree will enter the octagon, but his terrifying power is always there if used proper. Considering Jacoby’s stand-up, it’s important to note that the 34-year-old isn’t the slickest lateral mover and can be backed into the cage.

• 3/1.91 JOSH FREMD -157 ...Gore’s success mostly has come with earning an opponent’s respect early with his power. As seen against Anthony Hernandez, Josh Fremd refuses to back down...period. The Big Yinz has had his chin checked before, involving a two-minute starching to Gregory Rodrigues, but it’s fair to say that Robocop’s striking is several levels above Gore’s single-shot attack.

• 3/3.00 WALDO CORTES-ACOSTA KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +100
• 3/7.05 WALDO CORTES-ACOSTA IN ROUND 1 +235
• 3/1.64 CORTES-ACOSTA vs VANDERAA u2½ -183 ...Salsa Boy is your classic slugger Heavyweight, with enough early pressure to break the mentally broken Vanderaa. It seems as though Vanderaa is being used by the UFC as a walking highlight reel. Vanderaa may have a slight chance of exposing Cortes-Acosta’s lack of ground game, but his only takedown in the UFC came against Harry Hunsucker in the DWCS back in 2020.

 

[mrpickem]

Results
3.75/3 CHRISTIAN RODRIGUEZ KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -125
3/4.20 CODY DURDEN +140
2/2.60 DURDEN vs MOTA o2½ +130
3/2.61 CHASE HOOPER KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -115
2/4.50 JUN YONG PARK KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +225
2.46/5 Andrei Arlovski +203
4/2.26 PHIL HAWES -177
2/2.02 DOLIDZE vs HAWES o2½ +101
3.54/2 DUSTIN JACOBY -177
3/1.91 JOSH FREMD -157
3/3.00 WALDO CORTES-ACOSTA KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +100
3/7.05 WALDO CORTES-ACOSTA IN ROUND 1 +235
3/1.64 CORTES-ACOSTA vs VANDERAA u2½ -183


[4-9 -12.7u]

UFC Vegas 63:
Main Event

• 4/3.6 ARNOLD ALLEN -111 ...All fighter’s chins expire eventually, it seems like Kattar’s chin has many more miles than most and plenty left on the clock. The question is whether Allen can lay an early pace that prevents Kattar from warming into his reads. Arnold blitzed Dan Hooker in under a round last time out, but weight may have played a significant role that night. Of worry is Allen’s liberal use of his chin when closing the distance. Allen likely has faster hands at this point, we still haven't seen him cut the cage at a level required to keep Kattar under wrap. Eventually, you have to expect Calvin will start getting his by the championship rounds with sniping straight shots and bodywork. A surprise could be with Allen dipping into an underrated ground game with an early takedown or at least an attempt. Tough and very close fight.

Co-Main Event

• 3.42/2 MAX GRIFFIN -171 ...Lately, Griffin had leaned into operating as a gritty brawler, relying upon his unusual durability. The last time out was an exception, however, as Griffin drew the shrewd athletic Neil Magny. With the high volume of Means, Max can lay enough traps for Tim to eventually walk onto one. You cant write off Means’ technical excellence – especially his elbows in the clinch and with both fighters often losing hard-fought decisions, it could well be a coin-flip. Very weak fight for the Top of the Card.

 

[mrpickem]

Results
3.75/3 CHRISTIAN RODRIGUEZ KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -125
3/4.20 CODY DURDEN +140
2/2.60 DURDEN vs MOTA o2½ +130
3/2.61 CHASE HOOPER KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -115
2/4.50 JUN YONG PARK KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +225
2.46/5 Andrei Arlovski +203
4/2.26 PHIL HAWES -177
2/2.02 DOLIDZE vs HAWES o2½ +101
3.54/2 DUSTIN JACOBY -177
3/1.91 JOSH FREMD -157
3/3.00 WALDO CORTES-ACOSTA KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +100
3/7.05 WALDO CORTES-ACOSTA IN ROUND 1 +235
3/1.64 CORTES-ACOSTA vs VANDERAA u2½ -183
3.42/2 MAX GRIFFIN -171
4/3.60 ARNOLD ALLEN -111

[6-9 -7.1u]


Not really UFC, but I just don't see Jake Paul being able to handle Anderson Silva at all unless the fix is in...they7'll have to show me. Most especially at these odds I have to throw a few sheckles at it.

• 3/6.33 ANDERSON SILVA +211

https://imgur.com/3payK0g

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