UFC Vegas 61 ~ Oct 1

[mrpickem]

One of the lamest cards in a while today, but you can still make money. Two weeks ago was a very weak card as well, and I still had my best day in over 7 months,



Last week: [13-5 +18.99u].

 

[mrpickem]

UFC Vegas 61: Prelims​

• Costa KO Round 1 ...The UFC makes it clear, that they want a bloody finish to kick off the fight night. Both men go for the kill in the first round before falling off a cliff by the second round. Costa is younger, faster, and fresher, not to mention more dynamic behind an extremely underrated jab. Cannetti may enter head kick city.
• Stoliarenko sub early ...This armbar merchant did it again vs Jessica-Rose Clark. Chandler has the athleticism to morph into a solid fighter, but as of yet, she remains very raw. I can see Chandler walking herself into an armbar – sooner than later.

• Grishin Decision ...Grishin(32-9-2) is technically polished but lacks the athletic edge that made him so potent in the PFL. Still, it’s doubtful whether Lins owns anything that catches the experienced Russian by surprise.
• Jotko ...Considering how hard Jotko(24-5) is to take down, there's a possibility that Jotko stops a gassed Allen(19-5) late. On the other hand, Sean Strickland was able to walk Jotko down with a similar pressure Allen can provide. Jotko’s no-risk policy likely sees him land cleaner shots and sweep the scorecards.
• Silva KO ...Silva(11-3) owns heavy hands but it feels like an eternity since the mid-2010s when his athleticism and power carried him. Jesse Ronson is an equally messy striker though, and punch-for-punch, Silva vastly outguns the Canadian. Especially when you add in Ronson’s waning chin over his last few fights.

ALEKSEI OLEINIK (60-16-1) VS ILIR LATIFI (15-8) ~ Heavyweight

• Latifi ITD ...The Swede’s controlling top game won't be used, at least in the first round, so as not to allow Oleinik a sniff of a sub. Not that Latifi’s hands are anything to write home about – Oleinik has "almost Askren level" hilariously sloppy striking. With a gas tank longer than 5-minutes, Latifi should crank out enough output outside of the opening round to claim a finish.

 

[mrpickem]

first couple...

• 2.25/1 RANDY COSTA KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -225
• 2/2.00 RANDY COSTA IN ROUND 1 +100
• 2/1.16 COSTA vs CANNETTI u1½ -172
• 2/1.63 JULIJA STOLIARENKO -123
• 2/2.88 CHANDLER vs STOLIARENKO u2½ +144

 

[mrpickem]

[2-3 -2.21u]

• 3/1.90 MAXIM GRISHIN -158
• 2/1.32 LINS vs GRISHIN o2½ -151
• 3/2.59 KRZYSZTOF JOTKO -116

 

[mrpickem]

UFC throws a curve and moves Grishin[2-4 to the main card at the last minute...

[2-4 -5.21u]

​

• 2/1.57 JOAQUIM SILVA -127
• 1.33/2 JOAQUIM SILVA KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +150
• 1.74/2 ILIR LATIFI KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +115
• 4/2.21 LATIFI vs OLEINIK u2½ -181

 

[mrpickem]

Here's the new feature fight on the Prelims...

JOHN CASTANEDA (19-5) VS DANIEL SANTOS (9-2) ~ Catchweight (140)

• Castaneda ...Castaneda’s success lies with his well-rounded skillset and great fight-IQ that sees him keeping opponents out of their game. As such, Sexi Mexi probably chases takedowns to control the fight early, but his heart demands a messy scrap on the feet. Not that Santos fights stupidly, his aggression and power just haven't reached an immovable level as of yet. This will be a fun back-and-forth affair that eats up some time and likely goes to the cards.

 

[mrpickem]

WOW, that knee! video

 

[mrpickem]

[4-6 -4.38u]

• 2/2.10 JOHN CASTANEDA DEC/TECH DEC +105
• 2/1.27 SANTOS vs CASTANEDA) o2½ -157

 

[mrpickem]

Ooch, I didn't see that coming. Santos may have a future.

[4-8 -8.38u]

• 2/3.22 VIACHESLAV BORSHCHEV +161
• 1.45/4 VIACHESLAV BORSHCHEV KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +275
• 3/1.71 SODIQ YUSUFF KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -175

Nothing like a hot redheah to change your luck... :thumbsup3:

 

[mrpickem]

[5-10 -10.12u]

• 2/1.54 JONES vs BARCELOS o2½ -130
• 2.39/1 RAONI BARCELOS -239

still have these pending from earlier play

• 3/1.90 MAXIM GRISHIN -158
• 2/1.32 LINS vs GRISHIN o2½ -151

 

[mrpickem]

Well, now I see Grishin fight was scratched as Lin could not fight.

UFC Vegas 61: Top of the Card​

Main Event: MACKENZIE DERN (12-2) VS XIAONAN YAN (15-3) ~ Women’s Strawweight (115)

• Dern Sub ...Yan isn’t the next coming of Anderson Silva, but against Dern, Yan’s footwork and distance control can dance circles around her MacKenzie. Dern does have a phenomenal chin and her confidence has grown immensely in her ability to pressure opponents, however...there remains an unbudgeable stiffness to her striking. Regardless, the question will be whether Yan can keep the wildly aggressive Dern on the outside for five rounds. Unlikely to happen and when Dern finds her way to the mat, her exceptional submission skills will find the finish.

Co-Main Event: RANDY BROWN (15-4) VS FRANCISCO TRINALDO (28-8) ~ Welterweight (170)

• Brown ...If Brown sits on his jab and dictates a solid pace, Trinaldo lacks the weapons to force his way inside at forty-four. Conversely, Brown regularly manages to let his opponents back in and make it competitive. Trinaldo, if anything, is thoroughly consistent as a powerful counter-puncher that offers few defensive holes. I imagine Trinaldo’s massive overhands will cause some confusion on the scorecards, but Brown’s pace and volume should get the W.

 

[mrpickem]

[7-10 -7.58u]

• 4/1.22 RANDY BROWN -327 (FRANCISCO TRINALDO vrs RANDY BROWN)
• 3.40/2 YES - ROUND 3 STARTS -170 (FRANCISCO TRINALDO vrs RANDY BROWN)
• 2/4.70 XIAONAN YAN +235

Although I definitely give Dern the edge, at these odds I have to take a flier on Yan.