Some thoughts...wouldn't touch any of the first 4 fights on the card. low level fight to open the card, no edge either way. couple of big favs in brahimaj and martinez after that, no value betting those big numbers. coin flip fight between ziam and mckinney.
then we get to little Nunes who impressed us last time out with a KO against a bigger foe. Be a similar spot here and Pascual has bad defense. think she gets caught too. not a huge fan of laying a big number in a women's fight but i think we avoid any shenanigans, pascual doesn't have a great path other than to try and use her size to bully nunes against the cage for 3 rounds and get a dec. lot more likely nunes beats her up tho.
strong lean to bahamoundes, this fight will be a banger, someone will get KO'd. rong missed weight fwiw. this is really close to a play for me, i may jump on it later.
robocop Rodrigues this line fell enough for me to bite. well rounded fighter, killer instinct, questionable defense, lot of paths to win vs petrosyan who is a technical striker. the worry of petrosyan catching rodrigues was enough to just make this a half unit but i dont mind fading KO's at smaller numbers when a fighter has several paths to win like rodrigues does.
Tsarukyan, whose name reminds me of the dragon punch in street fighter 2, solid wrestler, great gas tank, think he grinds out alvares who prob can only win with a sub but i think alvares gasses out trying.
easy pass on the women's main card fight, will say the value is on cachoeira, she's live for a ko but how many of those do we really see in women's mma? lean to cirkunov in the co-main. worry about him gassing. he has the size and power though. obv not touching the giant makhachev line. kudos for bobby stepping in to take this fight i guess.
