UFC Vegas 31 Picks

Full disclosure, Johns had a bit of a rogue line on heritage this morning. Someone must have bombed dos Santos on only that book. I was prepared to play it at the more consensus -175ish lines fwiw.

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Speaking of Johns, 8 yrs younger, will look to stay at range and work the jab, should be the more athletic fighter and have a wrestling advantage. Dos Santos will seek to pressure Johns and stay aggressive. Johns should be able to grind out the decision, scoring with that jab and some takedowns, I don't see a great path for dos Santos to get this as he's no real threat to get a finish I believe.

Morozov well rounded fighter, technical, will seek to get takedowns and avoid the big shot from taha. Taha is tough and does have ko power but his takedown defense is very questionable. Wouldn't surprise me if taha looked better early but as the fight goes on Morozov should be able to take over and get a decision to steal this back. At dog odds I'll take my chances he can fade the ko and get this to the mat.

Gamrot comes from a solid camp, will be the better wrestler, fight with a lot of volume, and has good cardio. Stevens is clearly on the downside of his career having not won since Feb of 2018. He still has power though he really loads up and I think gamrot can take advantage and eventually get stevens out of there. Lot of upside with Gamrot I believe.
 
Lean:
I wanted to play Tate but line has creeped up above where I wanted it (below -150). Having not fought in 5 yrs she's a risk even against a 44 yo fighting her retirement fight in reneau. Tate appears to be in good shape and reports are she's been in the gym preparing since before this was announced and should be ready to go. She has a clear adv in the wrestling/takedown dept and reneau is susceptible to that. Reneau likely has a striking adv and she can be dangerous on the ground. I feel like this fight was made for tate to pick back up her career and she should grind this out but with the ring rust you never know so I want this at a cheaper price but doubt it comes back down.
 
Annoying the Johns fight cancelled cause dos Santos corner had covid. Had a great line on that one. Oh well.
 
Yr summary:
1/16 2-0 +2un
1/20 2-0 +2un
1/23 1-1 -.12un
2/20 0-4 -5.65un
2/27 2-3 -3.55un
3/6 3-0 +3un
3/13 1-0 +1un
3/20 1-0 +1un
3/27 3-0 +1un
4/17 2-0 +2un
4/24 0-3 -3.91un
5/8 2-1 +1un
5/15 1-1 -.16un
5/22 2-2 -.8un
6/5 1-0 +1un
6/12 2-3 -1.61un
6/19 1-1 +.27un
7/10 2-1 +1un
7/17 2-0 +2.17un
 
couple of no doubters. wish i had taken tate too.

2-0 +2.17 units :moneyeyes:

2021 Record
30-20 +3.64 units
Tate was easy money. Avg opponent on her way out the door and ufc desperately wants to add some hype besides Amanda and Valentina

Stephens may not win another fight if he even continues.
 
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