UFC on FX8 - May 18th, 2013

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What can you guys tell me about this one?

[h=2]MMA - UFC - May 18[/h]
[h=2]UFC ON FX-8: "BELFORT VS. ROCKHOLD" - JARAGUA DO SUL, SANTA CATARINA, BRAZIL -$500[/h]
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[TD="class: lineOverunder"]OVER/UNDER[/TD]
[TD="class: lineTotal"]MONEY LINE[/TD]
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[TD="class: lineName, align: left"]LUKE ROCKHOLD[/TD]
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PK-115​
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[TD="class: lineOverunder"]-[/TD]
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[TD="class: lineName, align: left"]VITOR BELFORT[/TD]
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PK-115​
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[TD="class: lineName, align: left"]ROC/BEL -OVER[/TD]
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[TD="class: lineName, align: left"]ROC/BEL -UNDER[/TD]
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[TD="class: lineName, align: left"]CONSTANTINOS PHILIPPOU[/TD]
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PK+180​
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[TD="class: lineOverunder"]-[/TD]
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[TD="class: lineName, align: left"]RONALDO SOUZA[/TD]
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PK-230​
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[TD="class: lineOverunder"]-[/TD]
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[TD="class: lineName, align: left"]PHI/SOU -OVER[/TD]
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[TD="class: lineName, align: left"]PHI/SOU -UNDER[/TD]
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[TD="class: lineName, align: left"]RAFAEL NATAL[/TD]
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[TD="class: lineName, align: left"]CHRIS CAMOZZI[/TD]
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[TD="class: lineName, align: left"]EVAN DUNHAM[/TD]
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PK+160​
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[TD="class: lineOverunder"]-[/TD]
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[TD="class: lineName, align: left"]RAFAEL DOS ANJOS[/TD]
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PK-200​
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Just took a pretty good piece of Vitor +110 @ 5dimes. While I do agree with conventional wisdom that the elite Strikeforce fighters are fairing very well in their UFC debuts this is an entirely different situation for Rockhold. First, Rockhold is coming into this fight on almost a year layoff, this isn't his fault but it is something that has to be taken into account. Second, these events in Brazil are in some kind of alternate universe where the fans are beyond rabid and their fighters almost always perform to the best of their ability. Third, and most important, the Brazilian athletic commission could care less how much TRT Vitor decides to juice up on and the Vitor who is not strictly controlled by an American commission on his TRT usage is one of the best fighters on the planet. I think people are asking a lot of Rockhold to come into this kind of atmosphere and beat an elite level fighter whose only two losses in the last five years have come to the best P4P fighters on the planet.

Watching Rockhold in Strikeforce I don't think he has elite level striking or smothering wrestling to give Vitor trouble and make him a favorite in this fight. Yes he has really good striking, yes he has great TD defense, and yes he is a really good fucking athlete but if he decides to stand and trade with Vitor he will get caught and hurt in this fight. I just don't see Rockhold having the ability to come into this fight and grind out a decision against Vitor and if this fight is a stand up battle I think Vitor should be a minimum of -150. Time will tell, but I don't think we will see better than +110 as the fight gets closer.
 
FWIW I've also parlayed Vitor +100 with Donald Cerrone -260 on BoL. That -260 price is WAY out of whack with the rest of the market right now.
 
5dimes put a ton of props up today for FX8. Vitor +425 to win in rd 1 looks good and I took for a little piece. Eyeing Dunham by decision @ +328 but I think we could see better come closer to fight time.
 
Picking on a couple of stale BoL lines tonight. Took Dias +120 and Cariaso +125 for a unit each. IMO both of these guys should be favored, especially Dias. I know he's coming off a long layoff but Lentz took this fight on about 7 weeks notice and has to come down to brazil. Dias is a beast at 145 and I see him being able to totally control where this fight takes place. 48 hours to go WEEEE.
 
BoL just put out props for FX8. LOL. Hammered Vitor +2000 to win in 1st rd. Down to +1500 but this same bet is +365 on 5dimes. Also took Rockhold +1250!!!! to win in decision. Both still easily available for anyone who wants em.
 
Belfort +105 -- 3-3.15
Dunham +175 -- 3-5.25
Dunham/Dos Anjos over 2.5 -225 -- 2.25-1
Dunham wins by decision +255 -- 1-2.55
Dias +110 -- 2-2.2
Tibau -215 -- 6.45-3
Tibau wins by TKO/KO +560 -- 1-5.6
Thiago -170 -- 5.1-3
Hollett +210 -- 2-4.2
Linkier -120 -- 2.4-2
Formiga -150 -- 3-2
Martins wins by TKO/KO -125 -- 2.5-2


GL fellas.
 
I'm hesitant to take Belfort as Rockhold may take him into deep waters! Vitor may blitz him during the 1st & 2nd Rds and Rockhold would be stupid to stand with him. He may just take him down into his world and go for a decisional win.
 
spooks said:
I'm hesitant to take Belfort as Rockhold may take him into deep waters! Vitor may blitz him during the 1st & 2nd Rds and Rockhold would be stupid to stand with him. He may just take him down into his world and go for a decisional win.
Click to expand...

Agree 100% with this line of thinking and its why I snagged that rockhold decision prop. Unfortunately BoL took the Belfort v Rockhold props down guess they finally realized it was a 5 rd fight. I still think rockhold +450 or better by decision is value as I think him keeping distance and grinding out 5 rounds is his best way to win. I think people are underestimating just how much better Vitor is when he can juice out of his mind on TRT, to me his gas tank look significantly better in the fights where he has. Also Rockhold has gone the 5 rd distance against his two legit top 10 caliber opponents in Jacare and Kennedy.
 
Son_of_Balrog said:
Picking on a couple of stale BoL lines tonight. Took Dias +120 and Cariaso +125 for a unit each. IMO both of these guys should be favored, especially Dias. I know he's coming off a long layoff but Lentz took this fight on about 7 weeks notice and has to come down to brazil. Dias is a beast at 145 and I see him being able to totally control where this fight takes place. 48 hours to go WEEEE.
Click to expand...

Would like to hear your thoughts as to why Caraiso should be favored. I'm pretty strong on the other side as I feel the submission skills of da Silva are too much for Caraiso.
 
P-Unit said:
Would like to hear your thoughts as to why Caraiso should be favored. I'm pretty strong on the other side as I feel the submission skills of da Silva are too much for Caraiso.
Click to expand...

The line movement today definitely agrees with you. I thought Formiga looked underwhelming in his UFC debut whereas Cariaso looked really good before getting subbed in a strange spot against Moraga. Going against my own rhetoric of betting against a Brazilian in Brazil and am obviously liking the bet less now that he's at +155. I just think Cariaso has a great shot to grind out a decision today. BOL to all betting though.
 
Also good ol BoL canceled my Vitor and Rockhold props. I bet the put up more props and still fuck the lines up. Bastards.
 
Son_of_Balrog said:
The line movement today definitely agrees with you. I thought Formiga looked underwhelming in his UFC debut whereas Cariaso looked really good before getting subbed in a strange spot against Moraga. Going against my own rhetoric of betting against a Brazilian in Brazil and am obviously liking the bet less now that he's at +155. I just think Cariaso has a great shot to grind out a decision today. BOL to all betting though.
Click to expand...

You also - and thanks for the reply. You haven't been around that long but I know several people in boxing/mma forums appreciate your thoughts. We need more good cappers like you in here.
 
Team Brazil off to a great start. Martins won via 3rd round knockout after losing the first two rounds, and "Formiga" da Silva won via unanimous decision with all three judges scoring it 29-28.
 
WELL THANK YOU BoL for CANCELING THAT VITOR +2000 WIN IN 1ST PROP. Fucking Vitor on TRT in Brazil my fucking god. Well 2012 had a KO of the year by Barbosa in January and Vitor EASILY wrapped up KO of the year tonight. FANTASTIC.
 
Also, LOL @ me watching these fights on delay in my AV room jumping around drunk as hell. Still have Boxing to watch hope it beats this Vitor KO.
 
Tibau looked awesome tonight. Another Brazilian who should just fight in Brazil. Grind / Schrute you guys clearly enjoy UFC i'd love to hear your thoughts on future fights. P-unit very much on the right side of that Cariaso fight. I thought the Dias fight was a tossup when it went to decision. IMO both Dias and Lentz are easily top 5-7 at 145 both those guys are fucking warriors and to me it deserved FOTN.
 
Well excluding the Dunham fight which was FOTN. Just drunk dont want to be spoiled on the Matthysse fight in the in game thread.
 
Also I think we'll get excellent value on whoever Rockhold fights next. Dude just ran into the Brazilian black hole maelstrom tonight I'll be on Rockhold at + odds against anyone in his next fight.
 
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