UFC on Fox 6: Demetrious Johnson vs. John Dodson

Grind_4_Mine

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
UFC Flyweight Championship

Demetrious Johnson (16-2-1, 4-1-1 UFC) vs. John Dodson(14-5, 3-0 UFC)

The Matchup: For much of his Zuffa career, Johnson has played the role of the underdog, but after a longer-than-expected route to the UFC 125-pound belt, “Mighty Mouse” enters his first title defense as the favorite. The AMC Pankration representative has earned the designation; beating Ian McCall and Joseph Benavidez, two of the world’s Top 5 flyweights, back-to-back is a significant achievement.

Johnson mixed punches and kicks well against Benavidez at UFC 152, out-landing his opponent by 33 significant strikes over the course of the five-round affair. Perhaps even more impressively, he landed five takedowns while defending all seven of the Team Alpha Male product’s attempts. In winning his rematch with McCall in June, Johnson demonstrated improved conditioning from their initial meeting while consistently beating “Uncle Creepy” to the punch.

However, Dodson represents a different type of challenge than Benavidez or McCall. While it was generally believed that both of Johnson’s previous foes held a strength advantage over the formerWorld Extreme Cagefighting talent, Dodson combines size, power and explosiveness unlike anyone the champion has faced to date. If Dodson cannot match Johnson in the speed department, he comes pretty close.

The Jackson’s Mixed Martial Arts member blasted through the bantamweight field on “The Ultimate Fighter 14,” concluding his run with a first-round stoppage of T.J. Dillashaw at the finale. As soon as the UFC added the flyweight division, “The Magician” relocated, scoring victories over Tim Elliott and Jussier da Silva in his first two 125-pound outings.

Dodson showed good patience against da Silva, who was once considered by many to be the world’s No. 1 flyweight. After engaging in a feeling-out process in round one, Dodson showed off his powerful left hand in the second round, dropping the Brazilian twice before finishing the contest with strikes on the ground. With his compact muscular frame and quick hands, Dodson might be the greatest knockout threat in the division.

Johnson is not especially easy to hit, but he was staggered by a Benavidez right hand in the fourth round of their title bout in September. Dodson probably has as much -- if not more -- power than Benavidez, particularly in his left hand. An adept counterpuncher with a solid understanding of movement and angles, Dodson has the potential to hurt Johnson on the feet if he picks his spots correctly. “Mighty Mouse” has proven to be the more accurate striker of the two, as he has been able to consistently land combinations with speed and accuracy. The quickness of his attacks also allows him to effectively set up his takedown shots, even against physically stronger opponents. Dodson has a good sprawl and balance, however, and the New Mexico native has yet to be taken down in UFC competition.

Dodson has shown no signs of serious fatigue in the Octagon, but a potential 25-minute bout against Johnson, who sets an incredibly frenetic pace throughout his fights, will give the challenger’s gas tank a serious test. In a back-and-forth battle that will likely be difficult to score, the fresher fighter down the stretch will have the chance to make a definitive statement in the championship frames. Dodson figures to be significantly larger than Johnson on fight night -- he has been known to cut from as much as 160 pounds-- and his ability to control the wrestling aspect of the fight could be pivotal in stealing a round or two. Still, maintaining dominant position against Johnson is a tall task.

The Pick: Dodson is the more powerful and innovative striker, but Johnson has a tendency to outland everyone he faces thanks to his blinding speed. However, Dodson is not as likely to be overwhelmed by Johnson’s speed as his previous foes have been. Without the usual edge in athleticism, Johnson could run into some rough patches against the more powerful Dodson. While scorecards could be all over the place in this one, Dodson edges Johnson to become the new 125-pound ruler.


(preview via Sherdog.net)
 
[h=2]Light Heavyweights[/h]
Quinton Jackson (32-10, 7-4 UFC) vs. Glover Teixeira (19-2, 2-0 UFC)

The Matchup: The Jackson that showed up at UFC 144 did not look like a fighter worthy of a prominent position on a future Fox broadcast. Overweight, injured and disinterested,“Rampage” was lackluster in dropping a unanimous decision to Ryan Bader in Japan, where he was once revered during his Pride Fighting Championships heyday. Bader controlled the bout with clinch work, takedowns and ground-and-pound, raising plenty of questions regarding Jackson’s long-term future in the Octagon.

The former light heavyweight champion did not help himself afterward, as he blasted UFC brass and matchmaker Joe Silva, claiming he was not shown the proper appreciation he deserved for going through with the fight while nursing an injured knee. As far as anyone knows, Jackson has just this bout remaining on his current UFC deal, and it appears the promotion is hoping to use the“Rampage” name as a springboard for the career of the promising Teixeira, who has been frighteningly dominant in two abbreviated Octagon outings.

Teixeira has piled up all sorts of gaudy statistics in dispatching Kyle Kingsbury and Fabio Maldonado, with the latter bout earning Sherdog.com’s 2012 “Beatdown of the Year” award. In those two victories, the Brazilian out-landed his foes by a whopping ratio of 8-to-1 significant strikes per minute, and he has shown equal proficiency attacking with aggressive power shots on the feet and heavy ground-and-pound on the mat.

Teixiera’s dominance comes with one disclaimer: Maldonado and Kingsbury have been prone to absorbing large quantities of punishment during their UFC tenures, so Teixeira’s efforts against them are not especially unique. Still, the 33-year-old has ripped through nearly everyone he has faced, and he will carry a 17-fight winning streak into his showdown with Jackson.

The direction of this fight will hinge on the motivation and conditioning of “Rampage.” If he is sufficiently interested and in shape, Jackson’s one-shot knockout power, strength and solid defensive wrestling will pose a worthwhile challenge for Teixeira. If he looks anything like he did against Bader, Teixeira’s ascent up the divisional ranks will continue with little resistance.

Expect the Brazilian to test his opponent by launching heavy hooks and uppercuts in the bout’s opening moments. This is where it is important for Jackson to use his fundamental boxing to become the aggressor. Although the Pride veteran is one of the division’s best counterpunchers, he risks eating several punches per exchange while waiting for the right opportunity to headhunt.

Jackson’s chin is durable -- he has not been knocked out since 2005-- but he can easily lose rounds if Teixeira lands with the volume and precision he has in previous bouts. The Memphis, Tenn., native can wear out swinging for a home run knockout, and that is when Teixiera can shift gears with takedowns and ground-and-pound. The Nova Uniao member is brutal with punches and elbows from top position, as he landed something in the neighborhood of 100 unanswered strikes against Maldonado. That is why it is paramount for Jackson to find the right range for his dangerous right hand; expending too much energy will leave him vulnerable. Teixiera can also slow Jackson’s movement by making judicial use of leg kicks, long a weakness of the B.A. Baracus impersonator.

The Pick: Whether it is his farewell showing or not, Jackson will give a spirited effort in front of a national television audience. However, it has become clear that he is not the fighter he was during his Pride and early UFC days. With more weapons at his disposal, Teixeira wears down his foe and wins via third-round submission.
 
[h=2]Lightweights[/h]
Donald Cerrone (19-4, 6-1 UFC) vs. Anthony Pettis (15-2, 2-1 UFC)

The Matchup: This one has been in the works for some time now, with Pettis’ recovery from injury delaying the matchup and drawing the ire of Cerrone in the process. With reigning 155-pound champion Benson Henderson already locked into a title defense against Gilbert Melendez on April 20, the winner could find himself sitting pretty for a shot at the belt this summer.

Cerrone has been far more active than his former WEC counterpart since the promotion folded into the UFC at the end of 2010. Pettis, as the final WEC lightweight king, was expected to receive a title shot upon his entry into the Octagon, but a couple of key events --a draw between Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard and Pettis’ decision loss to Clay Guida in the interim -- moved “Showtime” down the divisional waiting list.

It may have been a blessing in disguise for the Duke Roufus protégé, as he was able to learn from the Guida loss and adapt his approach accordingly. This was most evident against Jeremy Stephens, as Pettis utilized takedowns and top control -- not flashy striking and submissions -- to earn a unanimous verdict at UFC 136. The 25-year-old was up to his old tricks at UFC 144, however, dropping Joe Lauzon with a spectacular left head kick before finishing the contest with a volley of hammerfists on the ground. Not every outing is going to provide ESPN highlight-worthy material, and the more Pettis finds a balance between the unorthodox and the fundamental, the better off he will be.

Cerrone is no stranger to excitement in the cage, either. The perennial post-fight bonus collector blends well-rounded kickboxing with crafty submissions, and he appears to have corrected two of his most glaring flaws: subpar wrestling and the tendency to start slowly. Most recently, the Jackson’s Mixed Martial Arts product showcased his durability; after being staggered by a Melvin Guillard left hand at UFC 150, Cerrone rallied to finish his former training partner with a head kick and a straight right.

What makes this fight so appealing is that Pettis and Cerrone have the ability to counter what the other does well. On the feet, both have excellent kickboxing skills, so establishing a rhythm will be crucial. Cerrone’s one-inch reach advantage is not significant, but movement, angles and timing will be paramount in determining which fighter will be able to effectively land combinations. Neither man has been knocked out in his mixed martial arts career, making the possibility of some spirited exchanges all the more likely.

If the fight hits the ground, expect some entertaining scrambles and transitions to ensue. Both men are comfortable on their back and own active submission games. Pettis might be slightly better than Cerrone in the wrestling aspect of the fight, but the advantage, if any, is slight. Small victories, such as landing a few key takedowns or landing strikes in tie-ups, could determine the outcome in a bout where nothing figures to come easily.

During their Zuffa tenures, Cerrone has landed strikes with more volume than Pettis, but “Showtime” is adept at timing his opponent’s tendencies to set up the spectacular kicks for which he has become known. Cerrone is savvier than he likes to let on, and he will be prepared for what his opponent can bring to the table.

The Pick: Only Nate Diaz’s volume punching has derailed Cerrone’s run through the UFC thus far. He will find Pettis to be his most significant test since that defeat. In a tooth-and-nail bout, Cerrone lands a little bit harder and a little more often to take a narrow decision.
 
[h=2]Featherweights[/h]
Erik Koch (13-1, 2-0 UFC) vs. Ricardo Lamas (12-2, 3-0 UFC)

The Matchup: It has been 16 months since we last saw Koch, long enough for many to forget what made the 24-year-old Roufusport product such an intriguing prospect in the first place. Koch was supposed to challenge Jose Aldo for his title at UFC 149 and then UFC 153, but injuries to both parties put those plans on hold. With more talent emerging at featherweight, Koch is no longer a given as a No. 1 contender with a win. Instead, he should probably be given more fights to build his brand and establish a following.

Coming off a loss to Iuri Alcantara in his final WEC bout, Lamas flew under the radar as he made the transition to the UFC. That is no longer the case, as the Top Notch Fitness representative has authored a three-fight winning streak that includes victories over notable contenders Cub Swanson and Hatsu Hioki. With aggressive standup, solid wrestling and an active submission game, Lamas is comfortable anywhere the fight goes. Against Hioki, Lamas attacked his foe’s lead leg with kicks and had success landing his left hook. When the Japanese fighter shot for takedowns, the Chicagoan answered with guillotine attempts.

Koch has proven to be an explosive and aggressive striker during his career to date. He mixes up his kicks well and lands crisp combinations on the feet, and he also has a knack for finding openings for submissions on the mat. Most importantly, he thwarted the wrestling of Jonathan Brookins in his last outing, successfully defending all but one of his opponent’s 20 takedown attempts. Thus far, only Chad Mendes has been able to neutralize Koch with a top-heavy game.

As a former Div. III All-American wrestler, Lamas is more than competent in that area, and forcing the fight to the floor allows the Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt to threaten with submissions. Controlling distance will be critical for Koch, as Lamas is not afraid to engage in a firefight, where he has been known to land high kicks or flying knees of his own. The southpaw Koch is the more dynamic striker, however, and Lamas will be best served by making this a grinding affair. Lamas must close the range, force tie-ups and wear down Koch. He must be intelligent if he winds up in top position, as Koch has an active guard.

The Pick: Koch is more likely to win via knockout, but the longer the fight goes, the more it favors Lamas. One of the division’s unsung stars, Lamas further establishes himself with a hard-fought decision win.
 
Prelims

[h=2]Featherweights[/h]
Clay Guida (29-13, 9-7 UFC) vs. Hatsu Hioki (26-5-2, 2-1 UFC): After a lengthy stint at lightweight, Guida makes his 145-pound debut against Hioki, who saw his stock drop with an upset loss to Ricardo Lamas at UFC on FX 4. The Japanese fighter, once the world’s No. 2-ranked featherweight, likes to score trip takedowns and work methodically from top control. He will find that difficult against Guida’s frenetic pace and rhythm, however. It will not always be pretty, but Guida uses a high-energy approach to capture a decision in his 145-pound debut.

[h=2]Lightweights[/h]
Matt Wiman(15-6, 9-4 UFC) vs. T.J. Grant(19-5, 6-3 UFC): Grant used a multi-pronged striking arsenal to score a unanimous decision over Evan Dunhamat UFC 152; it was his third straight win in the Octagon. The 28-year-old Canadian is a skilled grappler with underrated standup and could be just one more win away from a breakthrough. Wiman, meanwhile, is known for his aggressive mix of wrestling and standup, but he showed an added dimension by submitting Paul Sass at UFC on Fuel TV 5. Grant uses his five-inch reach advantage on the feet and wins enough of the grappling exchanges to take a decision.

[h=2]Light Heavyweights[/h]
Ryan Bader(14-3, 7-3 UFC) vs. Vladimir Matyushenko (26-6, 7-4 UFC): Bader suffered a brutal knockout at the hands of Lyoto Machida at UFC on Fox 4, but he will face a far less trickier puzzle in Matyushenko, who has not fought in more than a year. Both fighters are known for their wrestling base, but at 42 years old, one has to wonder how much Matyushenko has left in the tank. Bader is the younger, more athletic wrester, and he has knockout power in his hands, as well. Bader wins via technical knockout in round two.

[h=2]Heavyweights[/h]
Mike Russow(15-2, 4-1 UFC) vs. Shawn Jordan (13-4, 1-1 UFC): Both big men have plenty to prove here. Russow’s four-fight Octagon winning streak came to a decisive end courtesy of Fabricio Werdum at UFC 147, while Jordan offered little offense in a lackluster decision defeat to Cheick Kongoat UFC 149. Jordan is probably more explosive, but all the athletic ability in the world will not mean anything if he finds himself beneath the smothering pressure of Russow. The Chicagoan will be in Jordan’s face from the outset, scoring takedowns and grinding out a decision victory over the former LSU Tiger.

[h=2]Welterweights[/h]
Pascal Krauss (10-1, 1-1 UFC) vs. Mike Stumpf(11-3, 0-1 UFC): Krauss recently moved to Milwaukee to train full-time, which should help his progression. In his last outing, “Panzer” was out-struck and outwrestled by John Hathaway in suffering his first career defeat at UFC on Fox 3. Stumpf, meanwhile, has not competed since being submitted byT.J. Waldburger in September 2011. Krauss takes this via decision.

[h=2]Middleweights[/h]
Rafael Natal (14-4-1, 2-2-1 UFC) vs. Sean Spencer (9-1, 0-0 UFC): Natal was in control for much of his UFC on Fuel TV 4 bout with Andrew Craig but ultimately paid the price for his showboating, losing via second-round head kick. Although he will be facing a promotional debutante in Spencer, Natal must show more respect for his opponent than he did against Craig. Spencer will be game, but the larger Natal should have his way on the mat against the natural welterweight, earning a submission by round two or three.

[h=2]Welterweights[/h]
Simeon Thoresen (17-3-1, 1-1 UFC) vs. David Mitchell (11-2, 0-2 UFC): Mitchell, who had a UFC on Fuel TV 6 bout against Hyun Gyu Lim fall through at the last minute in November, could be on the chopping block here. He faces a fellow submission specialist in Thoresen, who did a good job frustrating Seth Baczynski with his length before suffering a knockout loss at UFC 152. In a matchup where the ground game could be a stalemate, Thoresen will be able to fight at range and land with greater volume on the feet to capture a decision victory.
 

<tbody>
[TD="width: 120"] 1/26/2013 10:00 PM [/TD]
[TD="width: 500"] Demetrious Johnson vs John Dodson Maximum wager $300. [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 55, align: center"] 7001 [/TD]
[TD="width: 300"] Demetrious Johnson [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] -220 [/TD]
[TD="width: 200"] [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 55, align: center"] 7002 [/TD]
[TD="width: 300"] John Dodson [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] +180 [/TD]
[TD="width: 200"] [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 120"] 1/26/2013 10:00 PM [/TD]
[TD="width: 500"] Quinton Jackson vs Glover Teixeira Maximum wager $300. [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 55, align: center"] 7003 [/TD]
[TD="width: 300"] Quinton Jackson [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] +270 [/TD]
[TD="width: 200"] [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 55, align: center"] 7004 [/TD]
[TD="width: 300"] Glover Teixeira [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] -330 [/TD]
[TD="width: 200"] [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 120"] 1/26/2013 10:00 PM [/TD]
[TD="width: 500"] Donald Cerrone vs Anthony Pettis Maximum wager $300. [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 55, align: center"] 7005 [/TD]
[TD="width: 300"] Donald Cerrone [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] +105 [/TD]
[TD="width: 200"] [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 55, align: center"] 7006 [/TD]
[TD="width: 300"] Anthony Pettis [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] -125 [/TD]
[TD="width: 200"] [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 120"] 1/26/2013 10:00 PM [/TD]
[TD="width: 500"] Erik Koch vs Ricardo Lamas Maximum wager $300. [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 55, align: center"] 7007 [/TD]
[TD="width: 300"] Erik Koch [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] -160 [/TD]
[TD="width: 200"] [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 55, align: center"] 7008 [/TD]
[TD="width: 300"] Ricardo Lamas [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] +135 [/TD]
[TD="width: 200"] [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 120"] 1/26/2013 10:00 PM [/TD]
[TD="width: 500"] TJ Grant vs Matt Wiman Maximum wager $300. [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 55, align: center"] 7009 [/TD]
[TD="width: 300"] TJ Grant [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] -120 [/TD]
[TD="width: 200"] [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 55, align: center"] 7010 [/TD]
[TD="width: 300"] Matt Wiman [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] +100 [/TD]
[TD="width: 200"] [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 120"] 1/26/2013 10:00 PM [/TD]
[TD="width: 500"] Clay Guida vs Hatsu Hioki Maximum wager $300. [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 55, align: center"] 7011 [/TD]
[TD="width: 300"] Clay Guida [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] -250 [/TD]
[TD="width: 200"] [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 55, align: center"] 7012 [/TD]
[TD="width: 300"] Hatsu Hioki [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] +210 [/TD]
[TD="width: 200"] [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 120"] 1/26/2013 10:00 PM [/TD]
[TD="width: 500"] Ryan Bader vs Vladimir Matyushenko Maximum wager $300. [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 55, align: center"] 7013 [/TD]
[TD="width: 300"] Ryan Bader [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] -500 [/TD]
[TD="width: 200"] [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 55, align: center"] 7014 [/TD]
[TD="width: 300"] Vladimir Matyushenko [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] +400 [/TD]
[TD="width: 200"] [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 120"] 1/26/2013 10:00 PM [/TD]
[TD="width: 500"] David Mitchell vs Simeon Thoresen Maximum wager $300. [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 55, align: center"] 7015 [/TD]
[TD="width: 300"] David Mitchell [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] +200 [/TD]
[TD="width: 200"] [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 55, align: center"] 7016 [/TD]
[TD="width: 300"] Simeon Thoresen [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] -240 [/TD]
[TD="width: 200"] [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 120"] 1/26/2013 10:00 PM [/TD]
[TD="width: 500"] Shawn Jordan vs Mike Russow Maximum wager $300. [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 55, align: center"] 7017 [/TD]
[TD="width: 300"] Shawn Jordan [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] +160 [/TD]
[TD="width: 200"] [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 55, align: center"] 7018 [/TD]
[TD="width: 300"] Mike Russow [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] -190 [/TD]
[TD="width: 200"] [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 120"] 1/26/2013 10:00 PM [/TD]
[TD="width: 500"] Pascal Krauss vs Mike Stumpf Maximum wager $300. [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 55, align: center"] 7019 [/TD]
[TD="width: 300"] Pascal Krauss [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] -260 [/TD]
[TD="width: 200"] [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 55, align: center"] 7020 [/TD]
[TD="width: 300"] Mike Stumpf [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] +215 [/TD]
[TD="width: 200"] [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 120"] 1/26/2013 10:00 PM [/TD]
[TD="width: 500"] Rafael Natal vs Sean Spencer Maximum wager $300. [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 55, align: center"] 7021 [/TD]
[TD="width: 300"] Rafael Natal [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] -250 [/TD]
[TD="width: 200"] [/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 55, align: center"] 7022 [/TD]
[TD="width: 300"] Sean Spencer [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] +210 [/TD]
[TD="width: 200"] [/TD]

</tbody>
 
like a lot of dogs on this card. Right now I'm looking at Dodson, Rampage,Cerrone, Lamas, Wiman and Jordan. Thinking about Hioki too. Line seems high to me, but that may be because I can't stand Guida.
 
man, next weeks PPV card is big time. can't wait for that. I think Pettis beats Cerrone
 
Rampage is a fool. I hope he loses. #Clown

Pettis hasnt looked all that great in the UFC. I kind of lean Cowboy.
 
small bet on just pettis. i understand the concern there with the long layoff for sure.
 
btw for those that watch TUF.

there were a couple guys that were damn impressive. i love the TUF seasons.
 
Yea, im pretty sure most of Guida misses on most of his punches, he just moves around so much the judges think he's doing something.
 
I like Erik Koch quite a bit but I have a feeling one of these dogs is going to bark loud soon.
 
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