Junior dos Santos to win -233 (medium)
Junior dos Santos wins inside distance -202 (medium)
I actually think there's some value in laying 2 to 1 here given the fact JDS has one of the toughest chins in all of MMA and Overeem's is made of glass (JDS by KO/TKO was -210, so went this route). If you're not inclined to laying that type of juice then I would suggest either JDS wins in round one at -105 or in round 2 at +450 (or both) as I don't see this one making it to the third (won't start round 3 is -250)
Although Junior’s performance over Miocic was not the display of the overwhelming dominance most were expecting, Junior still beat Miocic (a very well-rounded and dangerous contender) quite convincingly. And, don’t forget, JDS even dropped Miocic with a well-timed counter that would have absolutely leveled most heavyweights. Overeem cannot afford a single errant punch like that to slip past his guard or it's going to be a very short night for him. How the hell that fight went the distance I have no idea... a true testament to the hearts and chins of Cigano and Stipe.
Side note: I plan on making a big play on Miocic to snap Arlovski's 4-fight UFC win streak in UFC 195 coming up on Jan 2 if the price is right, fwiw.
As for comparative records, we can’t overlook the fact that Overeem’s only taste of consecutive victories in the UFC has come over Stefan Struve (after being out for nearly two years and suffering a serious heart condition) and Roy Nelson (a perennial gatekeeper who is 1-4 in his last five fights). Neither Struve or Nelson are serious contenders; neither man is a top ten fighter. The fact remains that JDS is a giant step up in competition for Overeem. If Junior had been in the position to drop Overeem like Nelson was, I have no doubt the fight would have been over. All it will take is one punch from Junior. The only question remaining is when Junior is going to connect and how many follow-up shots will Overeem be content to eat on the ground before Herb Dean jumps in to save his life (and based on the Rockhold/Weidman fight, Reem may die Sat night).
Overeem's footwork may be improved, he's not as bulky (gives him a bit more speed) and, of course, he's training at one of the best camps in the world... and while JDS may not be the same fighter that he was only a few years ago, even in his somewhat degraded state, Cigano is light years ahead of Overeem in my eyes. Keep in mind JDS is one of the hardest workers in the sport; the man was over-training so much a few years ago that he was pissing dark brown Guinness beer-looking urine -- from rhabdomyolysis -- due to the fact his muscle fiber was breaking down and getting into the blood stream after the second Cain fight back in Oct '13. Story of Overeem's career: lazy, arrogant, PEDs, and wasted potential for such a high-level striker from his K-1 days.
Synopsis: JDS has way too much power and Overeem has way too many holes in his striking defense.
GL
Junior dos Santos wins inside distance -202 (medium)
I actually think there's some value in laying 2 to 1 here given the fact JDS has one of the toughest chins in all of MMA and Overeem's is made of glass (JDS by KO/TKO was -210, so went this route). If you're not inclined to laying that type of juice then I would suggest either JDS wins in round one at -105 or in round 2 at +450 (or both) as I don't see this one making it to the third (won't start round 3 is -250)
Although Junior’s performance over Miocic was not the display of the overwhelming dominance most were expecting, Junior still beat Miocic (a very well-rounded and dangerous contender) quite convincingly. And, don’t forget, JDS even dropped Miocic with a well-timed counter that would have absolutely leveled most heavyweights. Overeem cannot afford a single errant punch like that to slip past his guard or it's going to be a very short night for him. How the hell that fight went the distance I have no idea... a true testament to the hearts and chins of Cigano and Stipe.
Side note: I plan on making a big play on Miocic to snap Arlovski's 4-fight UFC win streak in UFC 195 coming up on Jan 2 if the price is right, fwiw.
As for comparative records, we can’t overlook the fact that Overeem’s only taste of consecutive victories in the UFC has come over Stefan Struve (after being out for nearly two years and suffering a serious heart condition) and Roy Nelson (a perennial gatekeeper who is 1-4 in his last five fights). Neither Struve or Nelson are serious contenders; neither man is a top ten fighter. The fact remains that JDS is a giant step up in competition for Overeem. If Junior had been in the position to drop Overeem like Nelson was, I have no doubt the fight would have been over. All it will take is one punch from Junior. The only question remaining is when Junior is going to connect and how many follow-up shots will Overeem be content to eat on the ground before Herb Dean jumps in to save his life (and based on the Rockhold/Weidman fight, Reem may die Sat night).
Overeem's footwork may be improved, he's not as bulky (gives him a bit more speed) and, of course, he's training at one of the best camps in the world... and while JDS may not be the same fighter that he was only a few years ago, even in his somewhat degraded state, Cigano is light years ahead of Overeem in my eyes. Keep in mind JDS is one of the hardest workers in the sport; the man was over-training so much a few years ago that he was pissing dark brown Guinness beer-looking urine -- from rhabdomyolysis -- due to the fact his muscle fiber was breaking down and getting into the blood stream after the second Cain fight back in Oct '13. Story of Overeem's career: lazy, arrogant, PEDs, and wasted potential for such a high-level striker from his K-1 days.
Synopsis: JDS has way too much power and Overeem has way too many holes in his striking defense.
GL
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