UFC on ESPN+ 37 ~ Fight Island

[mrpickem]

Huge card on the island starting at 5pm EDT

 

[mrpickem]

Random thoughts...

• Cory Sandhagen -140 / Probably by decision assuming Cory’s chin holds up, and he is willing to engage in the pocket after taking heavy shots, probably won't control fight in the later rounds
• Edson Barboza ITD -105 / An early takedown for Amirkhani could be trouble for the Brazilian but based on Barboza's strong takedown defense, Barboza will be able to light up a fading Amirkhani late, most likely with signature kicks and gets finish late R2 or R3.
• Ben Rothwell -135 / Looks to be a slow boring fight, Tybura is a menace on top but he will struggle to takedown Rothwell. On the feet, Rothwell has regressed but not the point where he can't outstrike Tybura
• Dricus Du Plessis -160 / Du Plessis is a top kickboxer, who's weak striking defense will not likely be exposed by Perez. If Du Plessis breaks from his gameplan and takes it to the mat, he may be in trouble, despite many of his wins coming from subs
• Tom Aspinall Round 1 finish -120 / Baudot's a last-minute replacement so not shady UFC match-making. But Aspinall should smash through this gimme fight
• Youssef Zalal -150 / Zalal's striking is a thing of beauty - calculated and patient, with the occasional flashes of explosive brilliance. Topuria is an athletic wrestler, but he relies on his physical advantages, which he is sacrificing in this bout by moving up in weight
• Tom Breese ITD +170 / Who knows wtf Breese is at mentally nowadays. If he is mentally sound, hr should make light work of thid guy. If not, the 6'4" Bhullar could punish Breese at distance on the feet.
• Giga Chikadze +155 / Chikadze has struggled to get finishes in the UFC, but it won't be long before the Georgian finds his perfect timing. Omar Morales is a decent fighter, predominantly a power puncher first, he will be outgunned here

My recent record(s)

• 10/3 - ESPN 16 [9-8-2 -0.17u]
• 9/26 - UFC 253 [8-14 -10.05u]
• 9/19 - ESPN+ 36 [11-9-1 +8.35u
• 9/12 - ESPN+ 35 [11-9 +25.8u]
• 9/05 - ESPN+ 34 [9-4 +9.72u]
• 8/28 - ESPN+33 [10-4 +7.83u]
• 8/22 - ESPN 15 [11-4 +9.15u]
• 8/15 - UFC 252 [12-9 +6.07u]
• 8/08 - ESPN+ 32 [10-12 -7.6u]
• 8/01 - ESPN+ 31 [8-9-1 -1.41u]
• 7/18 - ESPN+ 30 [10-6 +12.85u]
• 7/15 - ESPN 14 [8-12 +1.06u]
• 7/11 - UFC 251 [5-10 -10.93u]

Total for last 13 cards: [122-110 +50.67u]

 

[mrpickem]

My "Play of the Day" is Barboza over Amirkhani. Been into MMA a long time and what I value most in this one before even considering the odds is cardio, striking, and TDD. I believe Edwin is stronger in all three. Finland is a quick starter, likes to grapple, work for takedowns and usually is successful in finding an early sub or he gasses himself out and gets beat up on the feet as fight progresses. He's very good at head & arm chokes, anacondas, or D'arce attempts...all of his wins by 1st round sub except one. He doesn't like to stand and bang, but with Barboza he will probably be forced too and Edwin will kick the ever living shit out of him on the feet. Barboza's not likely to get subbed here and that's Finlands only path for victory. Barboza is twice the striker and will probably be able to defend the takedowns as he has better TDD than most in the weight class. I doubt this goes the distance. Some folks think Barboza is done because of his last 6 fights but the facts are he faced the cream of the crop and had his moments in those fights. Khabib, Felder, Ige could not finish him. Both times Barboza has been subbed, he was hurt on the feet first. And all of his L6 opponents are much better fighters than Amirkani.

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

I like it. GL tonight

 

[mrpickem]

	Fight #1​
	2209 Ulanbekov wins inside distance +141 vs Not Ulanbekov inside distance .72/1.02 2221 Ulanbekov wins in round 1 +380 vs Any other result .5/1.9

 

[mrpickem]

[0-2 -1.22u]
	2101 Stephanie Egger* +130 vs Tracy Cortez 1/1.3

 

[mrpickem]

boring fukn loser...

	[0-3 -2.22u]​
	2001 Giga Chikadze* +170 vs Omar Morales 1.3/2.21 2001 Giga Chikadze/Omar Morales* Under 2½ +190 .6/1.14

 

[mrpickem]

	[1-4 -0.61u]​
	1902 Tony Kelley -160 vs Ali Alqaisi 2.56/1.6

 

[mrpickem]

[2-4 +0.99u]
	1809 Kasanganay wins inside distance* +272 vs Not Kasanganay inside distance .5/1.36 1802 Impa Kasanganay* -235 vs Joaquin Buckley 2.35/1

 

[mrpickem]

	[2-6 -1.86u]​
	1709 Nascimento wins inside distance* -154 vs Not Nascimento inside distance 1.85/1.20 1702 Rodrigo Nascimento* -235 vs Chris Daukaus 1.41/0.6

 

[mrpickem]

lol, dont mess with Philly copper

[2-8 -5.11u]
	1633 Breese wins by TKO/KO* +283 vs Any other result 1/2.83 1602 Tom Breese* -200 vs KB Bhullar 4/2

 

[mrpickem]

KO of EVER

and another ANGLE

 

[mrpickem]

​	[4-8 -0.28u]​
	1502 Youssef Zalal -152 vs Llia Topuria 1.82/1.2

 

[mrpickem]

[4-9 -2.1u]

• 1409 Aspinall wins inside distance -299 vs Not Aspinall inside distance
  2.09/.70
• 1421 Aspinall wins in round 1 -119 vs Any other result
  1.19/1
• 1433 Aspinall wins by TKO/KO -179 vs Any other result
  1.79/1
• 1401 Alan Baudot/Tom Aspinall Under 1½ -195
  1.17/0.6

 

[skanless13]

Nailed Topuria
Now for Aspinal to destroy.

 

[skanless13]

Easy easy.

 

[mrpickem]

[8-9 +1.2u]

• 1309 Du Plessis wins inside distance* +176
  1/1.76
• 1302 Dricuc Du Plessis* -178 vs Markus Perez
  2.67/1.5

 

[mrpickem]

​	[10-9 +4.46u]
	1201 Marcin Tybura/Ben Rothwell* Over 2½ -157 1.57/1 1202 Ben Rothwell* -127 vs Marcin Tybura 1.27/1

.

 

[mrpickem]

[11-10 +4.19u]

• 1104 Fight won’t go 3 round distance* -184 vs Amirkhani / Barboza goes 3 rd distance
  1.84 /1
• 1110 Not Barboza inside distance* -124 vs Barboza wins inside distance
  2.29/1.85
• 1102 Edson Barboza* -250 vs Makwan Amirkhani
  10/4

 

[mrpickem]

The Main
	1001 Marlon Moraes/Cory Sandhagen* Over 3½ +117 2/2.34 1002 Cory Sandhagen* -135 vs Marlon Moraes 2.7/2

​

 

[mrpickem]

Last Night: [14-12 +8.19u]

Overall it was a good night after a tough start, I was able to bounce back and make a tidy profit.

:cheers3: