UFC ON ESPN 33 ~ March 26
- Thread starter mrpickem
- Start date
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
PRELIMS
DAVID DVORAK(20-3) VS MATHEUS NICOLAU(17-2-1)
Flyweight (125)
Flyweight (125)
- Nicolau … As a sucker for a clean counter-puncher, I’m giving Nicolau the nod, but this will be a razor-thin selection. Dvorak will deliver huge volume along with a speed differential potentially negating Nicolau’s fantastic timing and instead, potentially overwhelming the Brazilian. Throughout his career, however, Nicolau has shown the ability to claim rounds based on his well-rounded skill set and smart decision making…likely decision.
JENNIFER MAIA(19-8-1) VS MANON FIOROT(8-1)
Women’s Flyweight (125)
Women’s Flyweight (125)
- Fiorot … Women’s Flyweight is a dire division in terms of title contenders, with the UFC taking a risk by pitting a rising contender against Maia rather than fast-tracking Fiorot to a title shot. Joanne Wood found out the hard way that Maia is one relentless customer at 125lbs. Regardless, Maia’s limited striking variety or feints will struggle to make Fiorot uncomfortable. Fiorot lays down a consistent output on the front foot and can take the fight away from Maia if she can’t take the fight to the mat.
ALIASKHAB KHIZRIEV(13-0) VS DENIS TIULIULIN(10-5)
Middleweight (185)
Middleweight (185)
- Khizriev SUB/ITD … Tiuliulin steps up on a week’s notice to face a far better-equipped opponent than himself. The Russian carries freakish power that compliments his messy, unorthodox striking style. Tiuliulin could catch Khizriev early, the Russian possesses the power to cause an upset, but it is more likely that Tiuliulin’s terrible decisions find him on the mat and in a choke in the first round or two.
BATGEREL DANAA(12-2) VS CHRIS GUTIERREZ(17-3-2)
Bantamweight (135)
Bantamweight (135)
- Gutierrez Decision … Batgerel’s biggest problem is an inability to move up the gears and push an increasingly harder pace – the Mongolian sets about his work with the same intensity from the opening to the closing bell. Granted, it has seen Batgerel collect three R1 KOs in a row, but Gutierrez represents one of the most adaptable BWs outside of the rankings. Unless Batgerel taps into an unseen level in his wrestling locker, Gutierrez will crack the code after a tough opening round.
SARA MCMANN(12-6) VS KAROL ROSA(15-3)
Women’s Bantamweight (135)
Women’s Bantamweight (135)
- Rosa and OVER … McMann carries surprising pop to her single-shot striking game, in addition to phenomenal power wrestling. Against a fighter, such as Karol Rosa, McMann will struggle to find confidence under the barrage of combinations that Rosa lets loose. Confidence issues have plagued McMann over recent years and although the Brazilian is likely to hit the mat in this affair, Rosa’s output on the feet will control the scorecards.
NEIL MAGNY(25-8) VS MAX GRIFFIN(18-8)
Welterweight (170)
Welterweight (170)
- Magny Decision … It’s tough being a Neil Magny fan. Magny isn’t the most exciting fighter to watch at the best of times, which explains how he has ended up as chiefly a ‘prospect tester’. Can Max Griffin get inside of Magny’s 80″ jab? Not very likely. Without exceptional footwork/use of angles or a frame to match Magny, Griffin will be chasing thin air for most of the night. If Griffin opts instead to grapple, Magny has regularly proven his a tricky customer to control and will more likely torch Griffin’s gas tank before Max can find meaningful success.
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
MAIN CARD
MARC DIAKIESE(14-5) VS VIACHESLAV BORSHCHEV(6-1)
Lightweight (155)
- Diakiese … Diakiese is a vastly underrated wrestler but his mentality and confidence troubles could see BORSHCHEV laying down an early gauntlet that the Brit can not cope with, however…his ability to adapt well late in fights is a more proven quantity. I'll lean with Marc but not sure this one warrants any action.
ALEKSEI OLEINIK(59-16-1) VS ILIR LATIFI(15-8)
Heavyweight (265)
Heavyweight (265)
- Latifi KO … A powerful wrestler, Latifi will likely deny Oleinik top control throughout the contest and limit the sub threats. Oleinik may own one of the most diverse submission games, but the litany of Ezekiel chokes highlights the weakness of HW grappling as a whole. There is a stiffness to every area of Latifi’s game, but Oleinik’s durability and conditioning issues are too glaring to overlook.
ASKAR ASKAROV(14-0-1) VS KAI KARA-FRANCE(23-9)
Flyweight (125)
Flyweight (125)
- Askarov ITD … The real main event of Fight Night 205. Askarov isn’t the sharpest striker, but it is functional enough to create opportunities to unleash his grueling, chain-wrestling game. Kara-France possesses heavy hands and has a fantastic eye for short counters during ‘wild back-and-forth’ sequences, but he lacks a consistent outside threat. Without the ability to keep Askarov at range, the Kiwi’s knack for surrendering his back will provide an opportunity that Askarov will refuse to let slide. I'd like to back Kai but a submission likely comes before R3.
MATT BROWN(23-18) VS BRYAN BARBERENA(16-8)
Welterweight (170)
Welterweight (170)
- Barberena …An incredibly sad fight between two fighters who have endured brutal careers and continue to fall off an athletic cliff. Brown remains a wizard in the clinch (as seen against Miguel Baeza) and has the potential to pull off a moment of magic (i.e. Dhiego Lima) but The Immortal can’t sustain a solid pace beyond a couple of minutes. Durability issues likely stem from the hampered gas tank, but even with Barberena’s worrying injuries, it is safer to back Barberena clutching an ugly decision over a thoroughly weathered Brown.
Co-Main Event
JOANNE WOOD(15-7) VS ALEXA GRASSO(13-3)
Women’s Flyweight (125)
- Grasso … Stylistically, this should be a cakewalk for Grasso. A pressure boxer most likely keeps Wood pressed against the cage and unable to unleash her kicking game. With a gas tank that never falters, Alexa can fight her ideal game vs the weathered veteran. It would be foolish to completely write off Wood, who has a knack of comebacks in the later rounds and always proves a huge threat in the clinch, but she seems to have regressed somewhat under her new coach.
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
MAIN EVENT
CURTIS BLAYDES(15-3) VS CHRIS DAUKAUS(12-4)
Heavyweight (265)
Heavyweight (265)
- Blaydes TKO … Daukaus’ greatest strength is his fast hands and short boxing combos. Although not exactly graceful, Chris is surprisingly fleet-footed for a Heavyweight. His major issue stems from an inability to enter on an angle, often head-rushing in a straight line with his combinations. Blaydes has taken huge strides in his striking, to a point where his jab might be one of the best weapons at HW and will cause Daukaus all kinds of problems. As long as Blaydes hasn’t fallen in love with his hands, however, this should be a one-sided affair. We haven't seen Daukaus’ ground game yet in the UFC, but you have to assume that it's levels below Blaydes. Not to disrespect the former cop, but Blaydes is a rare HW possessing both athletic and technical skills. Expecting a return of Blaydes’ hellbows, and an early ground and pound finish. similar to this.
