UFC on ESPN+ 31 ~ Back in Vegas
- Thread starter mrpickem
- Start date
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
random thoughts...
- Gutierrez -270 vs Durden- Slight lean towards Gutierrez, howeverif you look at Gutierrez’s record, his only losses are to wrestlers and I could see a possible victory for Durden. Won't touch this at -270 but prolly find some creative way to be involved.
- Frankie Saenz vs Jonathan Martinez -245 - Leaning Martinez, however can easily see Saenz taking him down repeatedly. In a close fight, the stronger wrestler wins MOST of the time.
- Kevin Holland -245 vs Trevin Giles- May be the LOCK of the night...no need to explain.
- Ed Herman +145 vs Gerald Meerschaert - Originally, liked GM3, however, I keep going back and forth with this one. I can see Herman winning this one as he's a LOT bigger and definitely has the veteran experience. Herman brawls, and can take a shot. GM3 is stepping up a weight class and coming of a 1st round KO. I really think this is a tossup and the line should be even. If you think Herman’s age plays a factor, remember we’ve been seeing a lot of older dudes win. Ex: Santos beat Bogotov at age 40 and the list goes on)
- Bobby Green +130 vs Lando Vannata II- Just a gut feeling that Green will take this. Great all around fighter and looked amazing at the weigh-ins..plus he has that intensity too. Green fights to the level of his opponents. Vannata also does not like putting his hands up. Was watching interview on their last fight, Green had just changed to a new camp and coach and said he was not preparing for Vannata at all. Probably a small play but definite value on the dog
- Vincete Luque vs Randy Brown +175 - Luque has undoubtedly been in some super exciting fights. However, this is very concerning from a betting perspective. He’s been in 4 wars in the past 1.5 years, with the most recent one being less than 3 months ago. As impressive and exciting as that is, that is not something I want to see when betting on someone, especially someone who has accumulated so much damage. Even if his chin holds up this fight, you really have to question how diminished he is as a fighter. I really like Luque, but if you look at his past few fights, it looks like he may be hitting a plateau and possible decline. When you rely on trading shots, the fight will end up being really close if it goes to decision as seen in his fight against Perry. Despite his defensive deficiencies, Luque has terrific striking. He does a good job of mixing in those looping strikes with his jabs and straight right and also throws some heavy leg kicks. Offensively, Luque is a beast. Brown, on the other hand, while not as adept offensively, is much better defensively. He has good range management and movement. He really uses his length well to keep opponents just within striking range. The problem with a lot of Luque’s previous opponents is that they were content to stand and trade with him. He fought brawlers like Barberena, Perry and Price who were OK with standing in the pocket and trading. I doubt Brown will let that happen tonight. He’ll probably try and circle out and use his jab and eye pokes to keep Luque at bay. Thompsonused a similar strategy vs against Luque. He kept active on the feet enough to prevent damage to accumulating, which is what Luque has really relied on recently. Brown obviously isn’t on Thompson’s level, but he doesn’t need to be to make sound defensive decisions and strike from a distance. Despite being a knockout artist earlier in his career, he’s had a bit more trouble in recent fights . It took him 132 head strikes against Barberena to get the TKO, he went to a decision with Perry, and the fight ended on a doctor stoppage against Price. It appears Luque is relying on getting accumulated damage on opponents before finally getting the stoppage. So if Brown is able to evade that damage by not exchanging in the pocket, he has a very good chance of outpointing Luque. What Luque does have going for him, though, are his leg kicks and the smaller cage. Luque will really have to use his leg kicks to soften Brown up and limit his mobility. The smaller cage will also be advantageous for Luque in the sense that there will be less space for Brown to maneuver. Stangely, this could also be an advantage for Brown, who is a solid wrestler. Brown has shown that he is willing to take the fight to the ground if necessary and uses his size advantage to put opponents in the clinch to take away some of their offensive output. They both fought Niko Price. In their most recent fight, Luque had a real war with Price before getting the doctor stoppage. Brown was able to use his length to outstrike Price in the 1st round and mixed in takedowns and clinchwork to take away Price’s power shots. Unfortunately he got caught in a freak position round 2 and got knocked out eating some nasty hammer fists. However, if that didn’t happen, I think Brown would’ve won a pretty comfortable decision. This may be a tough fight for Brown, as it's a pretty big step up in competition, but as long as Brown isn’t lured into trading in the pocket with Luque, he can definitely pull off a decision.
- Joanne Calderwood vs Jennifer Maia- Calderwood falls on her back like nothing. Maia catches 1 kick, and Calderwood can’t wait to get on her back. Probably boring as fuck but I'm most likely on the dog. The over is a given.
- Derek Brunson vs Edman Shabazyan -370- HUGE step up for Shabazyan. Is 22 too young for Shabazyan? We'll see. Brunson has absolutely no fight IQ. Used to bend over and Naruto run face first at the beginning and chase his opponents to either KO his opponent or get counter KO’d the fuck out. KO in round 2 or 3 for Shabazyan. Odds so big...only play will be ITD, KO or something with total
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
| [8-5-1 +5.32u] | |
|---|---|---|
|
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Had a decent night until the main and I gave it all back. Brunson looked very good...I will say that.
[8-9-1 -1.41u]
The finish in case you missed it
[8-9-1 -1.41u]
The finish in case you missed it
