mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Been tough hoeing with UFC lately although I did manage to eek out a +1.1u profit this past Wednesday. Tonight's card is not great but there may be some good opportunities to profit...time will tell.
random notes...
random notes...
- Carlos Felipe wins inside distance +250 -- Felipe has plenty of power to finish and Spivak has looked
unimpressive losing 2 of 3. Spivak will probably win if he can keep the fight on the ground but I like these odds, as this looks more like a 50/50 fight. Give me the powerful wildcard making his debut over the more experienced guy we know is seriously limited. Probably play +160 ML as well.
- Johns vs Jackson -- one of the more interesting matchups on the card. I do think the line on Johns may be a bit too high @ +215, given that his two losses were against elite fighters. The obvious play is probably that the fight goes the distance, as both guys are durable and Johns took Sterling and Muhnoz the full distance and Jackson has gone the distance quite a bit recently. I may play Johns by SUB as well.
- Duffy vs Alvarez +260 -- high level fighter is given a"get right" matchup against a low level semi-prospect is an old combat sports narrative. That looks to be the case here, but there is an interesting wrinkle: Duffy may be at the end of the road and the semi-prospect is also a ground specialist negating some of Duffy's advantage. Alvarez loves to fight on the ground, and excitingly too. Using ground and pound to open up opponent’s defensive shells and secure submissions, Alvarez is a rising threat in the LW division. Duffy is a stand-up boxer through and through. With a solid jab and a beautiful left hook to the body, Duffy will have to be on his A-game if he is to keep the action on the feet. Have to rock the dog here.
- Ariane Lipski -115 vs Luana Carolina -- This fight is really all about which one of those two sucks less, right? It has to be Ariane Lipski for me. She is actually not as bad as I might have let you to believe. Lipski can be an alright fighter, even a good fighter on a good day. Nothing above that, but that should be just enough to beat Carolina here. Just take a look at the fighters to defeated Lipski in the UFC so far: Calderwood or McCann. Both of them way better fighters than Carolina and way bigger. Lipski is really good on her feet and a solid striker, but take her to the ground and she will stay there for the entire round. Her ground game is horrible. Fortunately for her, Carolina doesn't have much strength and is not a great wrestler...meaning this fight will be contested on the feet, where Lipski is by far the superior fighter. I do expect to see Lipski get the win here. I think at basically pickem it brings very good value.
- Diakiese v Fiziev -- expect Fiziev to lose a relatively non-competitive decision. KO risk is here but Diakiese is a level up. Hopefully Diakiese can keep control of his base instincts to wild out on an opponent for fifteen minutes. Fiziev is a powerful hooker, and Diakiese has shown in the past his ability to mentally switch off at the most inopportune of moments.
