UFC on ESPN 29 ~ Vegas
- Thread starter mrpickem
- Start date
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Prelim thots...
- Brahimaj -165 Sub ...It’s good to see the return of Brahimaj after his disgusting ear injury at the hands of Max Griffin. Brahimaj’s volume needs to be upped, however, needing a punch to keep active while he waits to time the perfect counter. Not that it matters, Palatnikov is a thoroughly hittable fighter. While Palatnikov can eat his fair share of strikes, Brahimaj is a boar of a man, and if he wobbles Palatnikov early as expected, the finish will academic.
- Bahamondes +125 ...Very close fight to call. Two incredibly fun prospects, with Bahamondes’ size and volume striking favored to overwhelm the technically sharper Roberts. If Roberts is unable to find a way around Bahamondes’ size in the clinch and find a way to get it to the mat, the Chilean could well win an ugly, evenly matched affair based on gritty volume.
- Knight KO +110 ...Knight’s preferred fight is to break down opponents against the cage, eventually finding top position from where he can rain down heavy shots. Cherant is a fabulous athlete and aggressive submission artist, yet his total inactivity on the feet is unforgivable at this level. Knight’s vulnerability off his back could be exposed but Cherant’s wrestling doesn’t appear to be at a level to test it.
- Malecki decision +150 ...Nunes is tenacious enough to be the first fighter to truly test Malecki’s chin. Malecki has failed to set alight her career with the UFC over the past three years, and her woeful striking defence leaves her vulnerable as she climbs the rankings. With such a height, reach and weight disadvantage, however, it would take the mother of all hail marys to see the UFC’s prospect lights be switched off.
- Kelleher ITD +100 ...Brian Kelleher will never rise high in the rankings, but he carries firepower in both hands and is more than willing to take risks to secure a W. A southpaw jab of 74″ at Bantamweight is freakish, and although Pilarte is a solid grappler, especially when considering his awkward frame, he desperately needs to make the most of his natural frame. Pilarte may find an early submission against an opponent who takes a while to wake up, but it is more likely that Kelleher is simply too much too soon for Pilarte.
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Main Card thots...
- Pantoja KO ... Back control man versus an aggressive scrambler who has been punished from behind by both Brandon Moreno and Tim Elliot in recent memory? A reactive counter-puncher, Pantoja may lack the nuance to set up traps, yet Royval will happily create his own demise. If an opponent backs themself onto the cage, Royval can drown opponents in volume and creative explosive shots. Pantoja hits far harder than Kara-France, however, and if Royval wades in with the same recklessness – it may end up being a toss-up where the Brazilian’s power proves key. Moreover, Pantoja’s leg and body kicks will pay dividends later in the fight by forcing Royval to settle into a one-note pace and removing his element of surprise.
- Jones & OVER ...KO power, a solid chin, a wealth of experience despite his poor record and underrated BJJ all favor the Guam native. Valiev’s first round against Jones may well be replicated a second time around. Kakhramonov loves to burst forwards with a flurry of shots, while Jones patiently evades the significant strikes before landing a hard single shot counter. If Jones can be sat down on the mat early, Kakhramonov may gain confidence over the fight and secure a shock victory over a fighter who struggles to force his best attributes into a fight. Most likely, Kakhramonov relies on his chin often during ugly exchanges in the pocket, with Jones’ cleaner strikes eventually making the breakthrough.
- Pichel ...Pichel’s risk-free style, a preference to out-attrition opponents via grappling and nearing forty years of age are all red flags that have stopped the UFC from pushing the old man. Able to push a hard pace throughout an entire fight, however, Pichel will be more than capable of preventing Hubbard from ever finding an in to the fight. Despite relying on out-enduring opponents, Hubbard employs an entertaining switch-hitting style that incorporates heavy hand-fighting and mental warfare. The holes in Hubbard’s defense are unfortunately too easily exploited though. Most like decided by the judges.
- Sherman ITD ...A volume striker lacking physical gifts, Porter is a more technically sharpened Heavyweight than the usual lot, but his ceiling peaks at unranked UFC heavyweight. A solid enough wrestler, it is very unlikely that Porter has the speed necessary to close the distance and takedown Sherman. With a 3″ reach advantage, vastly superior movement and a furious pace, Porter’s questionable chin will be drowned under vicious early barrages.
- Guida ...The Olympic silver medalist has a fearsome power wrestling base, yet Guida is the archetype veteran with a never-ending gas tank and evidenced ability to mix in strikes. Suffering a horrendous lead-up to the Guida fight, Madsen was plagued with family troubles, injuries and residential issues although the former Olympian doesn’t seem the fighter to be shaken by such hurdles. With a limited striking game based around ducking into overhands and pressuring opponents back with a lunging head, Guida’s janky lateral movement could frustrate Madsen. How the Dane deals with the first true veteran of his career, and if he holds a Plan B up his sleeve, is yet to be seen.
- Cannonier ...Coming into tonight, both Cannonier and Gastelum share a loss vs former champ, Robert Whittaker. Gastelum’s recent revival of his wrestling base may prove an issue, having not seen much of Cannonier’s TDD in the past. Since moving to Middleweight, Cannonier’s physical size has papered over the cracks. Cannonier’s deep gas tank, terrifying one-shot knockout power and attritional leg kicks all indicate a long night for Gastelum. The fridge’s southpaw one-twos won’t be fast enough to negate Cannonier’s 6.5″ reach advantage, and after a few stuffed takedowns, will be left clueless in a similar manner to the Till fight.
