UFC on ESPN 21 ~ Apex in Vegas

[mrpickem]

Not a great card but the main should be quite interest. I may not be as much into it tonight with all the hoops ongoing, but I'm sure I'll get a few plays in.

Had a bit of a setback last week, but still trudging forward.



I have a couple random writeups to post shortly.

:cheers3:

 

[mrpickem]

Neat to see a husband and wife fighting on the same card. May throw in a small married parlay...lol. Unfortunately there are very vew dogs I like tonight and that usually not a good sign. May still pick one ot two out.​

​

randoms/leans...

• Kevin Holland -175 ...Likely decision; Brunson 2.0 against Edmen Shahbazyan, found so much success in his last outing because he had complete control over the range of the fight. Against Kevin Holland, it will most surely be a different story as Holland is a master of distance management, using every inch of his 6’3″ frame to force opponents to fight to his tune. Continually setting himself just outside his opponent’s comfortable range, Holland can force Brunson to revert back to his historic tactic of wildly blasting haymakers with his chin pointed towards the stars. Holland can tire during the later rounds, however, and Brunson’s grappling is certainly enough to wear on him over 5 rounds. While many remember Holland’s performance in the Jacare fight for the crazy stoppage off the back, many also forget that Holland was taken down within the first ten seconds of the fight after a loose leg kick and was never able to break from the grasp of Jacare, but still worked it well.
• Tai Tuivasa by KO -300 ...Hunsucker is a last-minute replacement, and he should be commended for taking the huge opportunity and saving Tuivasa a lot of financial struggle. The match-up, however, is less than ideal for the first-round machine. While Hunsucker is dangerous when given the space to throw his powerful five+ punch combinations, he has almost no back-foot game to speak of. All Tuivasa needs to do is fight his natural game to win. By pressuring Hunsucker, and roughing him up against the cage, Hunsucker lacks any sort of answer and is a sitting duck in a similar vein to the Stefan Struve fight. This one looks too easy so long as Tai don't run into something early.
• Max Griffin -200 ...Neither man is going to compete in triathlons anytime soon, that is for sure. With both men having a history of fading deep into fights, expect tense opening exchanges on the feet before Griffin attempts to muscle his opponent onto the mat. Griffin is an immensely durable staple of the WW division, and while it would be a massive statement win, it is difficult to see Song winning on the cards or finishing Max so most like Max ITD or decision.
• Cheyanne Buys decision -130 ...Buys has struggled with her finishing rate, but at only 25 and continually improving, she will likely sharpen her striking over the coming years. While Ruiz carries heavy hands, her striking is largely limited to explosive bursts along a straight line. During the frequent periods of inactivity on the feet, Buys should be able to out-maneuver her opponent with volume and rough up Ruiz against the cage and on the mat...thereby piling up points for probably decision win.
• JP Buys -125 ...Silva is a durable operator who has succeeded in the past with his chopping calf kicks. With Buys, however, Silva would be best advised to not give his opponent another avenue for the takedown. Buys is a wonderful wrestler, and although he struggles to maintain control due to his size, he has made a knack of finishing opponents before they can escape.

 

[Big daddy naught]

Holland and tai ko too

 

[mrpickem]

​	Fight #1​
	2002 JP Buys -127 vs Bruno Silva 1.78/1.4

 

[mrpickem]

​
	Not playing 2nd fight at -500, but here's the 3rd one. Be back after that. :shake: 1831 Dolidze wins by submission +360 .75/2.7 1802 Roman Dolidze -105 vs Trevin Giles 2/1.9

 

[mrpickem]

​	[0-3 -4.53u]​
	1707 Santos wins by 3 round decision +615 .6/3.69 1701 Leonardo Santos +185 vs Grant Dawson 1.6/$2.96 1701 Leonardo Santos/Grant Dawson Over 2½ -152 2.28/1.5

Poor decision there imho...oh well moving on

 

[Andy]

You think dolidze won? Thought Giles had the bigger moment in rnd 3 prob what won it.

 

[Andy]

But arguing close decisions is a fools errand on my part.

 

[Andy]

GL rest of card.

 

[mrpickem]

​	[1-5 -5.23u]​
	1611 Chiasson wins by 3 round decision -105 vs Not Chiasson by 3 round decision 2/1.9 1642 Chiasson points handicap -3½ +180 vs Reneau points handicap any victory inside distance is a winner for selected fighter 1/1.8 1602 Macy Chiasson -230 vs Marion Reneau 6.44/2.8

Chiasson is a size bully and her voluminous body kicking game may have a significant effect on her elderly opponent, her striking defence is non-existent. Although Reneau carries underrated power and has a fine selection of counter strikes, the suffocating volume of Chiasson will bully Reneau

 

[albundy2127]

​	[0-3 -4.53u]​
	1707 Santos wins by 3 round decision +615 .6/3.69 1701 Leonardo Santos +185 vs Grant Dawson 1.6/$2.96 1701 Leonardo Santos/Grant Dawson Over 2½ -152 2.28/1.5

Poor decision there imho...oh well moving on

Who is this beauty?

 

[mrpickem]

​	[3-6 -1.53u]
	509 Tuivasa wins inside distance -325 9.1/2.8 1521 Tuivasa wins in round 1 -160 1.92/1.2 1537 Hunsucker / Tuivasa starts round 2 +170 .5/.85

 

[mrpickem]

Who is this beauty?

Renata Matos​

 

[mrpickem]

​	[5-7 +1.97u]​
	1411 Griffin wins by 3 round decision +105 1.6/1.68 1402 Max Griffin -178 vs Kenan Song 3.56/2

 

[CrazyBetter]

skipping the next 2 fights?

 

[mrpickem]

1309 Yanez wins inside distance -110
3/2.73

 

[mrpickem]

​	[6-7 +4.7u]
	1242 Buys points handicap -3½ -115 vs Ruiz points handicap any victory inside distance is a winner for selected fighter 1.15/1 1202 Cheyanne Buys -255 vs Montserrat Ruiz 1.53/.6

Like Cheyanne, but hate the odds...no value here but should still cash

 

[Big daddy naught]

​	[6-7 +4.7u]
	1242 Buys points handicap -3½ -115 vs Ruiz points handicap any victory inside distance is a winner for selected fighter 1.15/1 1202 Cheyanne Buys -255 vs Montserrat Ruiz 1.53/.6

Like Cheyanne, but hate the odds...no value here but should still cash

This heffer lucky to survive round 1. She needs to stay off her back at all costs to have a shot lol

 

[mrpickem]

	[6-9 +2.02u]
	1411 Griffin wins by 3 round decision +105 1.6/1.68 1402 Max Griffin -178 vs Kenan Song 3.56/2

posted this earlier, but repost with updated record

 

[mrpickem]

​	[7-10 +2.34u]​
	1007 Brunson wins by 5 round decision +350 .7/2.45 1009 Holland wins inside distance -105 1.26/1.2 1002 Kevin Holland -185 vs Derek Brunson 4.07/2.2