mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Tough looking card, but a few decent spots. I will be very small on all but 3 or 4 fair sized plays. After a nice run, I've gave stacks back last 2 weeks. Time to right the ship...
Dolidze is the real deal. He has finished all of his fights which you love to see, including a highlight finish in his last fight, and is also a European grappling champion. His opponent John Allan impressively beat Mike Rodriguez in his debut as a +350 dog with aggressive striking and wrestling, while also recovering well when Rodriguez had him hurt in the 2nd. (Although, we've certainly learned that "Slow Mike" was very overhyped, and Allan also pissed hot for that fight which increases the fade factor here.) Allan ate a shitlot of leg kicks in the Rodriguez fight which is Dolidze's favorite strike...Dolizde switches stances constantly so he could probably just blast low kicks to victory if he wanted too. Allan's offensive wrestling shouldn't be a factor either since Dolidze will be more than willing to go the ground, including bottom position, since Allan's last loss was by triangle with 4 sub losses overall. Should be an easy win IMO. I see Dolidze getting it done ITD, but that line at -110 compared to -200 ML I'm thinking the ML may be better play...since I've been stung a few times lately when my guy won but did not get the "played" finish...likely will play a little both ways as this is one of my top 2 plays of the night.
couple that may be worth a look:
Dolidze is the real deal. He has finished all of his fights which you love to see, including a highlight finish in his last fight, and is also a European grappling champion. His opponent John Allan impressively beat Mike Rodriguez in his debut as a +350 dog with aggressive striking and wrestling, while also recovering well when Rodriguez had him hurt in the 2nd. (Although, we've certainly learned that "Slow Mike" was very overhyped, and Allan also pissed hot for that fight which increases the fade factor here.) Allan ate a shitlot of leg kicks in the Rodriguez fight which is Dolidze's favorite strike...Dolizde switches stances constantly so he could probably just blast low kicks to victory if he wanted too. Allan's offensive wrestling shouldn't be a factor either since Dolidze will be more than willing to go the ground, including bottom position, since Allan's last loss was by triangle with 4 sub losses overall. Should be an easy win IMO. I see Dolidze getting it done ITD, but that line at -110 compared to -200 ML I'm thinking the ML may be better play...since I've been stung a few times lately when my guy won but did not get the "played" finish...likely will play a little both ways as this is one of my top 2 plays of the night.
couple that may be worth a look:
- Smolka ITD +210 ...oth fighters have similar recent records in terms of loosing to steps up in competition, but this is a big fade on Quinonez here. Smolka is certainly a liability himself, but he always comes out with heat and dangerous strikes looking to finish. His body shots and hooks are crazy, he landed some absolute bombs against Casey Kenny. Meanwhile, the well rounded but soft Quinonez absolutely does not like getting hit. He got rocked by a jab against Wood and folded as soon as he got hit against O'Malley. If Smolka lands a bomb the opportunity to finish will be there. Another option may be u2.5 +120
- Evloev ITD +180 may be worth a shot, because at -590 there's zero value there
- Hermansson at plus money, ITD and sub may all be worth a small pop. Jack has fought much higher level opponents and has an awkward style that is different than most and Vettori would have been much better served with more than a week to prepare. Jack takes chances and tries some wierd shit...so he could definitely get caught as Vettori hits hard and with a frenzied attack that only needs a crack to get through...that said I will be backing Hermansson
